Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Mark Kelly has won the Arizona Senate Race

Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Mark Kelly has won the Arizona Senate Race

Election Day Updates

Counting (83%)

  • Mark Kelly: 51.8%
  • Blake Masters: 46.1%

With fewer than 400k ballots remaining, Blake Masters has to win at least 75% of the remaining vote, an impossibility. Mark Kelly wins.

Exit Polls

  • Republicans: Masters 89%, Kelly 8%
  • Democrats: Masters 2%, Kelly 97%
  • Independents: Masters 39%, Kelly 55%

Masters is underperforming Kari Lake by 3 points


Arizona Senate Race Polls Average Blake Masters: 47%, Mark Kelly: 48%.

Google Search Share: Blake Masters: 50%, Mark Kelly: 50%
Net Social media Sentiment: Blake Masters: -16.1%, Mark Kelly: -43.7%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Leaning R


When is the Arizona Senate Election?

The Arizona Senate Race will be held on November 8th to elect a member of the US Senate. The primaries will be held on August 2nd, 2022.

On August 2nd, Arizona voted in the Primary election. Blake Masters won the GOP nomination while Mark Kelly had a challenger in the Dems’ Primary election.

For the Senate Race, it will be the fight between Democrat Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters.

Arizona Senate Race 2022 Prediction

Who is Gaining?

  • Polls: Masters
  • Google Search Share: Masters
  • Social Media Sentiment: Masters

Arizona Senate Polls: Observations and Insights

  • Who is winning the Arizona Senate Race?
    • While the polls suggest the election is too close to call, Blake Masters has the edge
    • Over the last 4 weeks, the average vote share for Blake Masters has risen by 4% while it hasn’t moved at all for Mark Kelly
    • With Marc Victor of the Libertarian party dropping out and endorsing Masters, Masters may just pull this off at the end.
  • Strengths and Weaknesses plus Where is Blake Masters gaining?
    • In the latest Fox News Poll, Kelly leads Masters by 2 points, he led by 4 points five weeks ago.
    • Blake Masters led Kelly by 5 in September, he now leads by 17 points
    • Kelly led Masters by 15 in September, he now leads by 19 points
    • The bulk of the gain for Masters came from Conservative Men.
    • Masters is trailing Kari Lake (R) among Women and Moderate Voters
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Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Blake Masters vs Mark Kelly Polls

Average of all Mark Kelly PollsNovember 8th
Mark Kelly (D)48%
Blake Masters (R)47%
The Trafalgar GroupNovember 7th
Mark Kelly (D)47%
Blake Masters (R)48%
Data OrbitalNovember 6th
Mark Kelly (D)48%
Blake Masters (R)47%
Research CoNovember 6th
Mark Kelly (D)49%
Blake Masters (R)46%

Read about Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs’s Governor Race here

Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls: Google Search Update

Last 7 days

  • Mark Kelly: 50%
  • Blake Masters: 50%

Arizona Senate Race Polls: Social Media sentiments

Last 7 days

  • Kelly: -43.7%
  • Masters: -16.1%

Arizona Senate Polls: Last 3 Election Polling Average and Result

2020 Senate Election: The last Arizona Senate Election took place in 2020. It was a special election initiated after the death of the sitting Republican Senator John McCain. After the death of McCain, the Arizona Governor appointed Jon Kyl as a Senator in place of McCain till the special election was held. However, Jon Kyl resigned within four months of his appointment and Martha McSally replaced him as a Senator.

On November 3rd, 2020 a special election was held to elect the next Senator of Arizona. Mark Kelly was on the ballot for Democratic Party. Kelly defeated McSally and flipped the seat after a long duration. He outperformed Joe Biden who won the state by a margin of 0.3% while Kelly won the seat by a margin of 2.4%.

Result: Mark Kelly: 51.2% Martha McSally: 48.8%

Arizona Senate Race Polls: 2016 Senate Election: 2016 Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8th, 2016. John McCain was the GOP nominee while Ann Kirkpatrick was on the ballot as a Democratic Party nominee. The election was almost one-sided with Ann Kirkpatrick posing almost no threat to McCain’s election. John McCain won the election by a whopping 13%. McCain polled 53.7% of the total votes while Ann Kirkpatrick received 40.8% vote share.

2010 Senate Election: The 2010 Senate election in Arizona was completely dominated by the Republicans. John McCain was the GOP candidate while Rodney Glassman was the Democratic Party’s candidate. The election was held on November 2, 2010. John McCain won the election and he secured a total of 59.1% votes while Glassman received only 34.% of the total votes.

Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Voter Registration

From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.

As of July 2021

The state has 4.32 Million Registered Voters.

  • 34.72% are registered, Republicans
  • 31.78% are registered, Democrats
  • 32.60% are Independents

AZ Senate Race 2022 Polls: Frequently Asked Questions

Is Arizona State a Republican or Democratic state?

  • Mostly the political offices in Arizona are held by the Republican party. Both US senators and 5 out of 9 houses of representatives are democrats and the remaining other four are Republicans. Many were elected first time elected in 2018.

How often are Senate Elections?

  • A senate can run for reelection after six years. As per the term, the Senate has six years to serve Arizona. Senators are appointed or elected in special elections to serve the remainder of the term.

AZ Senate Race 2022 Polls: Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census figures

  • White American: 53.4%
  • Hispanic American: 30.7%
  • Others: 16%

Arizona is a majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make up the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe.

It is the 4th most populous county in the USA. Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.

Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls

Read our article on the Florida Senator Race 2022

Read: Georgia Senate Polls