Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Trump to make a comeback to the White House in 2024?
| Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Biden: 43%, Trump: 44% – Some states are seeing a huge jump in favor of Trump. Example: Georgia. Trump is leading Biden by 14% – However, Biden is competitive in states like Arizona and ahead in Pennsylvania – If elections were held today, Donald Trump would be re-elected as President of USA. – Trump is ahead of even Kamala Harris as per the latest polls. The Crowdwisdom360 system which we first used in the 2020 election includes publicly available polls, google search data, social media sentiment analysis, economic metrics, and any other data sets Read on. |
With Joe Biden in office after the 2020 Presidential Election, the Democrats had all the power to script a new history for the United States. Instead, President Biden is struggling to overcome both internal as well as international challenges. Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings paint a Presidency in serious trouble.
Some polls suggest that neither Biden nor Trump should contest the 2024 election but unless there are serious rivals to challenge both the candidates, they could become the candidates for their respective parties.
Table of Contents
Joe Biden’s Latest Approval Rating
President Biden’s approval has been declining since he took charge of the office. He is one of the worst-rated American presidents. Here are a few ratings of President Joe Biden
| Poll | Date | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
| Crowd wisdom360 Average | June 30 | 39.67 [+0.1] | 56.83 [+1.1] | -17.1 [+0.9] |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 29 | 39 | 59 | -20 |
| Reuters/ Ispos | June 28 | 38 | 57 | -19 |
| YouGov | June 28 | 39 | 56 | -17 |
| AP-NORC | June 27 | 39 | 60 | -21 |
| Marist College | June 25 | 40 | 54 | -14 |
| Morning Consult | June 25 | 43 | 55 | -12 |
President Biden began to lose momentum soon after the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and his ratings got worse soon after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Inflation has reached historic levels with no signs of improving as the Oil supply has tightened post-COVID.
As per the average of the latest 6 Approval ratings, Biden’s Approval Rating stands at nearly 40% while nearly 57% disapprove of his Presidentship.
Statewise Rating of Joe Biden as Per the Data By Morning Consult for March 2022
| States | Ratings | States | Ratings | ||||
| Alabama | -32 | Montana | -22 | ||||
| Alaska | -23 | Nebraska | -37 | ||||
| Arizona | -14 | Nevada | -11 | ||||
| Arkansas | -32 | New Hampshire | -13 | ||||
| California | 19 | New Jersey | -2 | ||||
| Colorado | New York | 6 | |||||
| Connecticut | -2 | New Mexico | -7 | ||||
| Delaware | North Carolina | -16 | |||||
| Florida | -11 | North Dakota | -47 | ||||
| Georgia | -11 | Ohio | -19 | ||||
| Hawaii | 9 | Oklahoma | -39 | ||||
| Idaho | -41 | Oregon | -5 | ||||
| Illinois | 2 | Pennsylvania | -14 | ||||
| Iowa | Rhode Island | 4 | |||||
| Indiana | -28 | South Carolina | -20 | ||||
| Kansas | -25 | South Dakota | -33 | ||||
| Kentucky | -33 | Tennessee | -32 | ||||
| Louisiana | -26 | Texas | -15 | ||||
| Maine | -11 | Utah | -23 | ||||
| Maryland | -12 | Vermont | 13 | ||||
| Massachusetts | 10 | Virginia | -4 | ||||
| Michigan | -13 | Washington | 5 | ||||
| Minnesota | West Virginia | -50 | |||||
| Mississippi | -9 | Wisconsin | -16 | ||||
| Missouri | -28 | Wyoming | -47 |
In 40 of the 50 states, Biden’s approval rating is negative as per the latest Biden Approval Rating.
Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Latest Polls
Almost all the polls are showing Donald Trump with a considerable lead over Joe Biden. Biden’s poor approval ratings particularly on the economy are pushing numerous Independent voters back to Trump.
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |||
| Average of Polls | June 30 | 43% [+0.75] | 44% [-0.25%] | |
| YouGov | June 28 | 46% | 43% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 22 | 44% | 49% | |
| Echelon Insights | June 20 | 45% | 43% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 15 | 38% | 41% | |
| Yahoo YouGov | June 13 | 42% | 44% |
Biden vs Trump 2024: Election Odds
Former President Donald Trump is clear favourite on betting Platforms to be reelected as the President of United States in 2024. He Leads the charts followed by Ron DeSantis and Joe Biden.
| Betting Odds | Joe Biden | Donald Trump |
| OddsChecker | +550 | +240 |
| Action Rush | +450 | +300 |
| TheLines | +500 | +300 |
| Observation and Insights Polls show How Trump & MAGA is producing cross-pressure over persuadable voters. According to the latest polls released by Priorities USA, voters responded to generic ballot questions preferring GOP (44%) over Democrats (41%). However, when asked about Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) Agenda, the polling improved for Democrats with around 37%, while for Republicans it fell to around 30%. According to Cecil, Trump and his MAGA approach are producing cross pressure for persuadable voters. The poll results are also indicative of voters’ reaction to Republican extremism. Results suggest that such voters could easily be pulled to the Democratic side if Joe Biden takes on an attacking approach towards Trump and the GOP. |
Latest Polls For GOP Primary
| Polling Company | Date | Donald Trump | Ron DeSantis | Mike Penace |
| Average of Polls | June 30 | 49% | 29% | 10.5% |
| Morning Consult | June 26 | 51% | 23% | 8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 22 | 59% | 15% | 7% |
| New Hampshire University | June 20 | 37% | 39% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights | June 20 | NA | 39% | 18% |
2024 Elections: Will Donald Trump run for President in 2024?
Former President Donald Trump seems poised to announce his presidential campaign soon. He has repeatedly teased a 2024 presidential bid on several occasions. In March he was quoted saying “The truth is: I ran twice, I won twice and I did much better the second time,” insisting that he had won in 2020 “And now we just may have to do it again.”. In another interaction with the media, he mentioned that he was “very close to making a decision” on another campaign.
No American President since 1892, has returned to the White House after losing reelection, however, Trump has plenty of reasons to believe otherwise:
- Lead in Primary Polls: Republican Primary polling runs favorable to Trump, it is clear that he has established sound influence over the GOP and remains to be a clear favourite choice for the party’s presidential nomination. However, a recent poll conducted by New Hampshire University shows Ron DeSantis leading Trump by 2 points. However, there’s no confirmation for a Presidential Bid from the Florida Governor as he runs this year for reelection so it’s still unlikely that it would affect the Former President’s rerun.
- Biden’s inflationary Presidency: President Joe Biden is having a hard time in the White House, with concerns over Inflation his approval rating has been on a constant decline stabilizing at around 39-40%. American Political Analyst Stirewalt described Biden as kind of a lame duck because people in his party openly question not only whether he will run again, but whether he can. Although Biden might be expecting a rerun, his republican counterpart will have a lot of issues to besiege him in debates.
- Media Attention: Donald Trump seems to enjoy the media’s attention and that helped him a lot during his 2016 campaign. Although his social media presence has taken a significant blow after his accounts were banned but he still seems to be very much trending over his comments and remarks. The Former President is even referred to as a media magnet in the sense that his comments or remarks seem to dominate the newspapers and social media for the day.
- Swift Fundraising Machines at his disposal: Trump is known to extensively raise funds online by selling merchandise prominently through the red “Make America Great Again” hats. These sales not only fueled cash inflows but also provided a great database of supporters and customers who would be easily approached for further support. This not only helps capitalize on his considerable small-dollar base but also helps by establishing a massive war chest. There is no doubt that with swift fundraising machines at his disposal and remarkable support from the GOP at the grassroots and institutional level, Trump’s Reelection bid would have no shortage of funds.
- Lack of Competition in Primary: According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided if Trump chooses to rerun and Ron DeSantis is reelected as the Governor of Florida. A Clear GOP field makes it easier for Trump to focus his attention and Campaign resources on the presidential campaign for November 2024. Moreover, Trump himself seems confident of his nomination from the GOP, therefore making his rerun an almost surety unless there is any legal or health concern that barrs him to file for reelection.
2024 Election: Will Donald Trump end up winning the Presidential elections?
- Favourable Polls: Almost all the polls are showing Donald Trump with a considerable lead over Joe Biden. According to the average Trump closely leads with 44.25% of the votes while Biden is stabilized at 42.25% votes. So if Presidential Elections were held at present Trump is sure to be reelected to office.
- BidenFlation: Americans seem intensely disappointed with Biden’s stand on political issues especially the sudden withdrawal of US Armies from Afghanistan and his handling of the soaring Inflation. His Approval ratings seem to be constantly hanging around 39% since he took charge of the White House last year.
- Trump vs Harris: In case of a rare Harris vs Trump matchup, still Donald Trump would have an upper hand. According to the latest polls, he leads over Harris by an average of 6%.
- Betting Odds: Amongst American Bookies, Former President remains the favourite contender for the 2024 Presidential Race. As per prediction platform Smarkets, there’s 20% chance of Trump returning to the White House as president, while only 14% chance of Biden and around 22% chance for Ron DeSantis.
- Comparative Approval Rating: Trump’s approval rating around this time of his presidential tenure stood around 46% while President Joe Biden has continuously struggled with around 40% approval Rate. With midterms on the outlook and many other economical concerns, this approval rate seems unlikely to improve. Therefore Donald Trump definitely holds a strong chance to emerge victorious in 2024.
Trump 2024: Favourability Polls
| Polling Company | Favourability | Unfavourability |
| YouGov | 40 | 58 |
| Morning Consult | 43 | 55 |
| FOX News | 44 | 55 |
Biden 2024: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party Nominee?
Joe Biden recently expressed his desire of contesting the 2024 Presidential election and he also said that he would be fortunate to face Donald Trump again in 2024. However, the probability of him being the Democratic party’s nominee is slim.
- Health: While public videos are not a reliable metric for assessing the President, president Biden has repeatedly shown signs of lack of awareness around him.
Example
2. Mid-term performance: Current forecasts suggest that the Democratic party will lose control of both the House and the Senate. This will make it difficult for President Biden to push his candidature given his historically low approval ratings.
3. Betting Markets: As per the prediction platform, Smarkets, around only 33% of the respondents or participants are positive about Biden being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Around 16% of the participants believe, Kamala Harris could be the Presidential nominee of Democrats for 2024.
Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Statewise Polls [Battleground States]
Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Arizona
| Blueprint Polling | May 12-16, 2022 |
| Joe Biden | 41% |
| Donald Trump | 41% |
Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Pennsylvania
| Blueprint Polling (D) | Feb 15–16, 2022 |
| Joe Biden | 45% |
| Donald Trump | 40% |
Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Wisconsin
No New Polls released in 2022
Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Georgia
| Polling Company | |
| East Carolina University (B/C) | June 8-10, 2022 |
| Joe Biden | 40% |
| Donald Trump | 47% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | March 2–8, 2022 |
| Joe Biden | 36% |
| Donald Trump | 50% |
Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Michigan
| Blueprint Polling (D) | Feb 1–4 |
| Joe Biden | 38% |
| Donald Trump | 40% |
Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Google Search Data, State-Level Data
Joe Biden
| Joe Biden 2022 | Joe Biden 2020 (Day before the election) | ||
| Georgia | 57% | 44% | |
| Michigan | 55% | 42% | |
| Arizona | 55% | 43% | |
| Pennsylvania | 56% | 44% | |
| Wisconsin | 56% | 60% |
Donald Trump
| Donald Trump 2022 | Donald Trump 2020 (Day before the election) | ||
| Georgia | 43% | 56% | |
| Michigan | 45% | 58% | |
| Arizona | 45% | 57% | |
| Pennsylvania | 44% | 56% | |
| Wisconsin | 44% | 57% |
Trump 2024: Social Media Sentiment State-Level Data
Data for the states that were narrowly won by Joe Biden in 2016. (Last 7 Days Data)
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | ||
| Georgia | -8% | -32% | |
| Michigan | -32% | -32% | |
| Arizona | -31% | -27% | |
| Pennsylvania | -34% | -32% | |
| Wisconsin | -35% | -26% |
Trump vs Harris Polls
**This scenario may arise if Joe Biden pulls out of the 2024 Presidential Race.
| Polling Company | Date | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump |
| Average of Polls | June 30 | 40.75% | 46.25% |
| YouGov | June 27 | 44% | 45% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 22 | 42% | 50% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 15 | 37% | 43% |
| Harris Poll | May 18 | 40% | 47% |
The close States or the States where the Margin of Victory was less than 5%
- Georgia, 0.23% (11,779 votes) – 16 electoral votes
- Arizona, 0.31% (10,457 votes) – 11 electoral votes
- Wisconsin, 0.63% (20,682 votes) – 10 electoral votes
- Pennsylvania, 1.16% (80,555 votes) – 20 electoral votes
- North Carolina, 1.35% (74,483 votes) – 15 electoral votes
- Nevada, 2.39% (33,596 votes) – 6 electoral votes
- Michigan, 2.78% (154,188 votes) – 16 electoral votes
- Florida, 3.36%- 29 Electoral Votes
2024 Presidential Election Polls: State Elections in 2021
Since Joe Biden was inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States, there have been three major state elections to elect its Governor.
- California: In California elections were held after a recall petition was launched against first-term Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat due to his handling of Coronavirus. The elections were again conducted under the shadow of Coronavirus. Despite Republican candidate Larry Elder garnered immense support, the recall was not successful. A whopping 61.8% of voters voted against the recall petition and the petition got canceled.
- New Jersey: New Jersey a Democratic stronghold held a Gubernatorial election on November 2nd, 2021. The incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy was against the Republican Jack Ciattarelli. The election was one of the closest ones could have ever expected. Phil Murphy, despite retaining the office, Republican Jack Ciattarelli gave the toughest fight. Phil Murphy got 51.2% of the votes while Republican Jack Ciattarelli received 48.0% vote share.
- Virginia: The election to the Governor’s Office of Virginia was held on November 2nd, 2022. The incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam, due to term limits could not run for the office again. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe won the Democratic primary and Glenn Youngkin was nominated at the Republican convention. The election was again a closely contested one but the Democratic Party failed to retain the state. Republican Glenn Youngkin won the election and was elected as the new Governor of Virginia.
The results were evident of Democratic Party gradually losing the grip of the states despite being able to retain 2 of the 3 states.
2024 Presidential Election Polls: Latest News
- Trump is in Trouble and He Knows It
- Enter Hillary Clinton? Trump, Roe prompt muted talk of White House run
- The End of Roe, the End of Trump
- Opinion | Trump wanted loyalty above all. He got just the opposite
- Jan. 6 committee subpoenas Trump White House counsel Pat Cipollone to testify
- Heated Debate Erupts Over What Happened Inside Trump’s Vehicle on Jan. 6
- 1/6 Takeaways: Angry Trump, dire legal warnings and ketchup
- Opinion | Trump’s dominance might end with a whimper, not a bang
- Why today’s 1/6 hearing was utterly devastating for Donald Trump
2024 Presidential Election: Latest Videos
2024 Election Latest Tweets
Donald Trump Polls: What Happened in the Last Election?
On November 3rd, 2020, the United States voted to elect the 46th President of the country. On ballots were the then President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party’s representative, Joe Biden.
The 2020 Presidential Election was fought under the fear of Coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, a record number of ballots were cast early and by mail. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama’s record of 69.5 million votes in 2008.
Biden received more than 81 million votes while former President Donald Trump received over 74 Million votes. Biden secured 306 Electoral votes while Trump could get only 232 electoral votes. With counting taking around a week’s time, Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7th. Biden and Harris were inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
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