California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: Newsom in serious trouble as Elder picks momentum

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: Newsom in serious trouble as Elder picks momentum
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The latest California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls show Gavin Newsom in serious trouble. Talk show host Larry Elder is fast emerging as a leading rival against the Governor

Average of 5 polls

On September 14, the state of California is set to witness a recall election in order to drive Governor Gavin Newsom out of his office. Gavin Newsom will make history as the second California governor ever to face a recall election.

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: Latest News Coverage

[5th August] Assemblyman Kevin Kiley has joined a list of Republican candidates hoping to oust Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom

[5th August] California Republicans clash in first debate in Newsom recall

[5th August] Republicans aim at GOP base in 1st California recall debate

[5th August] California governor recall candidates debate in Yorba Linda

[4th Aug] Larry Elder is at the top of the Republican field , only 48% of voters support retaining Newsom as Governor

[4th Aug] Larry Elder slammed the state’s minimum wage saying it should be at 0$ . He further went on to criticise the state’s Democratic-led government for imposing a $14 minimum wage for businesses with 26 or more employees and $13 for those employing fewer than 26 people, saying officials are interfering in places they shouldn’t

[3rd Aug] Journalist Dan Walters says that Gavin Newsom’s worst enemy is himself; voters see him as slippery, untrustworthy and hypocritical following his management of the pandemic in the last 18 months

[3rd Aug] Some surprising allies of Gavin Newsom

[3rd Aug] Recall backers are doing their best to block trump’s mention from the state voter guide

[3rd Aug] Elizabeth warren to tie recall to trump in ad to help Governor Newsom

[3rd Aug] Gavin Newsom has correctly identified that he needs a large democratic turnout to counter the republican enthusiasm to see him out of office and he will try to equate the recall to a referendum on the republicans and trump to counter the apathy and lack of enthusiasm among democrats.

[3rd Aug] Jenner Campaign in debt

[3rd Aug] Gavin Newsom pulls his kids from summer camp over its mask policy

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: Latest Polls

New Emerson Poll confirms Newsom Trouble, 48% of voters were against a Newsom recall while 46% were in favor of a recall.

Only 48% of all voters in California support retaining Gavin Newsom as Governor with 39% calling for his recall and a further 12% being undecided as per the Core Decision Analytics poll

Further polling showed that among all ‘Definite Recall Voters’, 50% of all such voters support retaining Gavin but 43% are intent on seeing him out. The margin is thin and still precarious, furthermore, it doesn’t seem like all of that 50% is totally committed to seeing him remain.

The Biggest problem for Newsom is that in such a Democratic Dominated state where the condition of the Republican Party is so weak that some have even remarked of it as the third party of the state, the Democrat base is not enthused enough to turn up to vote but the Republican base and anti lockdown voters are raring and going all out to see him out of office.

Just look at the job approval ratings at the extreme levels. Those who say Excellent/Poor are more likely to stay where they are and not change their minds compared to those who say good and fair who are mostly at the margins


Google Search Trends show Larry Elder picking momentum in California

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: Newsom in serious trouble in 2 new polls

Originally tweeted by Polling USA (@USA_Polling) on August 1, 2021.

California (San Diego County): ‘Should Governor Newsom Be Recalled?’

Recall: 49%
Remain In Office: 40%

ABC 10/San Diego Union-Tribune / July 30, 2021 / n=546

Originally tweeted by Rob Pyers (@rpyers) on July 27, 2021.

Poll released today

LA Times/Berkeley IGS Poll (Likely Voters) on Gavin Newsom recall:

Yes on recall? 47%
No on recall? 50%

Replacement candidates:
40% ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
18% Larry Elder
10% Kevin Faulconer
10% John Cox
5% Kevin Kiley
3% Caitlyn Jenner
3% Kevin Paffrath

No, do not remove, %
Poll date
July 3rd Week
Emerson College Poll
July 2nd Week
June 11th to 16th
May 8th to 19th
Moore Information Group
June first week

A latest poll by Inside California Politics / Emerson College poll shows that Conservative Larry Elder may replace Gavin Newsom as Governor of California if he is recalled by the voters. As per the poll, Elder had 16% support while his nearest opposition John Cox had only 6%. Recently a Sacramento County judge ruled that California’s Secretary of State Shirley Weber must put Elder on the ballot as a candidate on the final certified list of candidates. The poll also shows that 43% of the voters want to recall Newsom. Emerson’s previous poll of the recall in March had support for the recall at 38%

The poll by Inside California Politics / Emerson College shows Newsom may be able to hold on to his office this time but more than half of the respondents wanted a change in 2022. About 48% of respondents said they would vote to keep the governor in the Sept. 14 recall election. 

Newsom predicts ‘profound consequences’ for Democrats nationwide if he loses recall election

As COVID cases surge Gov Newsom explains

Originally tweeted by NowThis (@nowthisnews) on July 31, 2021.

‘The freedom of that decision not to be vaccinated is impacting the rest of us’ — CA Gov. @GavinNewsom explains the decision to require certain workers to get vaccinated or be tested every week in this NowThis exclusive

Originally tweeted by Larry Elder (@larryelder) on August 1, 2021.

50% of 3rd graders in California can’t read at state levels of proficiency. Poor parents want school choice, but Gov. Newsom says no. His kids go to excellent schools, but you must send your kids to lousy gov’t-run urban schools that are failing them. Aren’t you tired of this?

[31st July] Kevin Falconer wants Californians to get vaccinated, but he wouldn’t require it

[31st July] CALmatters Commentary: Could crime surge push Newsom recall?

[31st July] Newsom’s Allies Raise Nearly $40 Million for Battle with Recall Republicans

[31st July] Why Newsom’s suddenly vulnerable in recall: COVID, crime and housing

California Governor Recall Election 2021 Opinion Polls and News

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: Some key Candidates

Larry Elder, Conservative Talk show host and author

John Cox: 2018 GOP Governor Candidate. He won just 38% of the vote in the 2018 election, worst defeat since 1930

Caitlyn Jenner, Celebrity, Olympic Gold Medallist

Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego

Doug Ose, former Congressman

Larry Elder holds the endorsements of Chuck Norris and Dennis Prager,another conservative talk show host and founder of Prager University

Kevin Faulconer holds the endorsement of Darrel Issa, US House Representative from California for the 50th district(R)

It must be noted that Gavin Newsom will himself not be listed as a Democrat for the recall election. This comes after an error was found in his filing. Newsom’s campaign missed a deadline to submit his affiliation to California Secretary of State Shirley Weber. In response Newsom filed a lawsuit. Court Judge James Arguelles rejected Newsom’s lawsuit. He said that the state law regarding the deadline is “unambiguous.”

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: What is the eligibility for the Recall election?

  • The candidate must be a US Citizen.
  • The candidate must be registered as a voter in United States.
  • The candidate must not have ever been convicted of felonious misuse of public money.
  • The candidate must make public five years of tax returns.
  • The candidate must pay $4,000 or collect 7,000 signatures from registered voters in order to be eligible to be listed on the recall ballot.

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: What is the procedure of Recall election?

  • On Recall ballot a voter is asked two separate questions: 1. Do you want to recall Gov. Newsom? and 2. If Newsom is recalled, then who would you want to replace him?
  • For replacing Governor Newsom, more than 50% of voters needs to say ‘Yes; to for question.
  • If there is more than 50% ‘Yes’ response to first question, the winner of 2nd question will be declared as new Governor.
  • If there is less than 50% of ‘Yes’ response to first question, Governor Newson will hold on to his office.

California Governor Election 2021 Opinion Polls: When did the Last Recall election take place?

According to California’s state law any governor can be subjected to recall if the opposition is able to garner the a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number of signatures to trigger a recall election is 12% of total votes polled in last election.

The secretary of the state verifies and certifies the recall election if the condition is met by the petitioner. A recall election must take place with 60-80 days of state secretary’s order.

In 2003 a recall election was initiated against the then Governor Gray Davis who was a Democrat. After the recall election Gray Davis was replaced by the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as new Governor of California.

Read: 2021 New Jersey Governor Election Opinion Polls and Latest News

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