Latest California Recall Election Polls 2021 and Results: Newsom wins recall election by a HUGE margin

Latest California Recall Election Polls 2021 and Results: Newsom wins recall election by a HUGE margin
3.1 30 votes
Article Rating

Latest California Recall Election Polls 2021 and results

64.7% of voters want to keep Newsom as Governor while 35.3% want to recall Newsom.

live results

The Polls were wrong and as we mentioned earlier, the polls were underplaying Newsom’s votes. Google search data confirmed our hypothesis and today the data showed us that Governor Newsom was in fact performing better than the 2018 election.


California Recall Election Polls 2021: Google Search Update, Sep 14th

Search traffic for Newsom surged in California suggesting a big win for Newsom

Screenshot 2021 09 15 at 5.32.09 AM



California Recall Election Polls 2021: Polls Summary, Sep 14th

Gavin Newsom had averaged 48% NO, will not recall and 47% YES, will recall, in the 4 polls carried out in early August. This has improved to 56% (+9%) NO and the % of those willing to recall is down by 6% points. Gavin Newsom is relatively in a better position now.

These are the latest Gavin Newsom Recall Polls which have been released in chronological order

Pollster
No, do not remove, %
Yes, Recall,%
California Recall Election Polls date
Average (Last 5)
55.9%
41.9%
30th Aug to 13th Sep
55%
41%
13th Sep
53.3%
44.7%
11th to 13th Sep
60%
40%
10th Sep to 11th Sep
57%
43%
2nd to 10th Sep
SurveyUSA
54%
41%
7th Sep
Average of 4 Older Polls
48%
47%
July 30th to 22nd Aug
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
51%
43%
20th to 22nd Aug
YouGov
54%
46%
6th to 12th Aug
Survey USA
40%
51%
2nd to 4th Aug
Emerson College
46%
48%
July 30th to 1st Aug

How a Single Survey Panicked California Liberals and Roused Them to Vote

California Recall Election Polls 2021: Crowd’s Forecasts and analysis

FINAL California Recall Prediction

My Prediction for the 2021 California Recall Election

FINAL California Recall Election Analysis & Prediction

Gavin Newsom’s Report Card

California women show decisive support for Newsom, concerns about Elder, as recall looms

As per the latest polls, the candidates who people will vote for to replace Gavin Newsom are:-

Pollster
Date
Larry Elder(R)
Kevin Paffrath(D)
Kevin Faulconer(R)
John Cox(R)
Caitlyn Jenner(R)
Kevin Kiley(R)
Someone else
10th to 11th Sept
30%
6%
4.1%
3.1%
1.6%
3.6%
2.5%
2nd to 10 th Sept
22%
6%
4%
7%
1%
3%
19%
7th Sept to 8th Sept
29%
9%
6%
8%
2%
3%
26%
6th to 7th Sep
39.5%
4.7%
4.7%
3.8%
1%
1.7%
16%
30th Aug to 6th Sept
38%
10%
8%
3%
1%
4%
23%

It must be mentioned that Gavin Newsom and state Democratic officials have asked their supporters and local Democrats to leave this question blank and not vote for anyone else as a sign of ‘protesting against this ballot and making sure the Democrat Party in the State stays united behind him. Thus there are no high profile democrats taking part in this race.

But we do have some low profile registered Democrats who have entered the race like Kevin Paffrath, Jacqueline McGowan, Brandon Ross, Holly Baade, John R. Drake, Patrick Kilpatrick and Joel Ventresca who are expected to pick up some votes and gain a recognizable though miniscule voteshare.

There are over 46 candidates vying to replace Newsom.

California Recall Election Polls 2021: Track Record of Pollsters in the 2018 California gubernatorial election

In the 2018 California gubernatorial election, Governor Gavin Newsom won 61.9% of the vote. The pollster that was closest to the result 2 weeks before the election was UC Berkeley. In this election cycle, UC Berkeley predicted a 51% support for Mr Newsom. However the poll was conducted in July, a full 2 months before the final voting day.

However, the polls were very accurate in predicting the 2020 US Presidential election

California Recall Election Polls 2021: Recall Odds Summary

To be recalled
Will not be recalled
Prediction
+203
-213
Will not be recalled
800 (To remain Governor, up -500)
Will not be recalled
94% (To remain Governor, up 13% last 2 weeks)
Will not be recalled


Will Gavin Newsom Lose the California Recall Election? What Bookmakers Predict


Gavin Newsom Recall Update: 3 Reasons why he will win the recall election

3 reasons why Larry Elder could become California Governor and what are his policy positions?

Canada Federal Election Polls and News

California Recall Election Polls 2021: The Latino Factor

As per Census 2020 statistics, Latinos are officially the largest community in California. Despite being about 28% of all registered voters in the state, they are a community that can not be ignored by anyone.

Latinos in California have historically voted for the Democrat Party in large numbers after Proposition 187 was passed, 64% of the community had voted for Newsom in the 2018 Gubernatorial Election.

But recent polls have shown a lot of discontent among the community against the Governor either due to the pandemic or because of their economic conditions. Latinos were 53% of all Covid cases and 45% of all deaths in the state despite being barely 40% of the population

Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said Newsom’s team can take no Latinos votes for granted.
“Latino focus groups after focus groups are saying, Democrat or Republican, I want to know what these mofos are going to do right now to make my life better, or I ain’t got time to hear none [of] it,”

Larry Elder swings through San Diego in bid for Latino votes

California’s Latino population could decide the recall election

As per the Data for Progress poll, only 26% of Latinos will vote to recall Newsom
But the Survey USA poll says that 39% of Latinos will vote to recall Newsom;
The UC Berkeley poll says 31% of Latinos will vote to recall Newsom

California Recall Election Polls 2021: Latest News, Sep 14th

Sep 14th

California recall election of Gavin Newsom to wrap up Tuesday: LIVE UPDATES

California recall goes into final swing for Election Day | Recall Election Latest

The Most Important Things To Know About California’s Recall Election Today

California’s recall election, in photos

Biden campaigns for Newsom at Campaign Rally, calls Larry Elder a clone of Trump

GOP pushes unfounded fraud claims before California recall

Larry Elder Campaign Concedes Defeat and Claims Fraud – Before Election Day

California’s gubernatorial recall election: Pelosi ties the recall to Trump

California recall: Why Gov. Gavin Newsom could be removed, who else is running and what you need to know

California Recall Election Polls 2021: Latest Videos , 14th Sep

What To Know On Eve Of California’s Gubernatorial Recall Election



California recall election down to final hours of campaigning

Residents fear for future of California days before recall election

Gov. Newsom, recall candidates campaign in final stretch

California’s Newsom Urges Voters to Turn in Ballots for Recall Election

California Recall: A Lifeline for Governor Newsom | NewsConference | NBCLA

Biden campaigns for Newsom ahead of California recall election

San Diego County officials say over 815,000 recall ballots returned as of Sunday

The High Stakes Of California’s Recall Race, Barbara Boxer interview

California Recall Election Polls 2021: Latest Tweets, 14th Sep

asads

as


Originally tweeted by Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) on September 14, 2021.

California, vote to keep @GavinNewsom your governor. The rest of America is counting on you, and so am I.


Originally tweeted by Orrin Heatlie (@recallgavin2020) on September 14, 2021.

What if you pulled out all the stops, spent 50 million dollars on your campaign, The Pesident, Vice President, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, former President Obama, Bernie Sanders and others spoke on your behalf and you STILL lost! What if then? What if? Happy Election Day!

Originally tweeted by Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) on September 14, 2021.

Great to be with President @JoeBiden tonight talking about what’s at stake in this election.

Let’s not leave anything to chance — it’s time to get out there and VOTE NO!

E OGPpEUcAAsPDR

Originally tweeted by Larry Elder (@larryelder) on September 13, 2021.

ONE DAY left to VOTE YES and SAVE CALIFORNIA.

End the failed Gavin Newsom experiment. It’s time for a change.

https://www.electelder.com/Voting/

Originally tweeted by Larry Elder (@larryelder) on September 13, 2021.

CA deputy district attorney blasts Gov. Newsom: ‘Failed to do his number one job’

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6272315048001/

#RecallGavinNewsom
#WeveGotAStateToSave

Originally tweeted by Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) on September 13, 2021.

Newsom says that @rosemcgowan’s allegations are false, but Rose has released the emails from his wife confirming them.

C’mon journalists, you can do it! You’re almost there!

Originally tweeted by Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) on September 13, 2021.

TWO DAYS, California.

TWO DAYS to show the rest of the nation that we stand for:
– vaccines
– climate science
– women’s rights
– immigrant rights
– reproductive rights
– the minimum wage
– commonsense gun safety laws

It’s ALL on the ballot. VOTE NO.

California Recall Election Polls 2021: California Recall Candidates 2021 List

Larry Elder, Conservative Talk show host and author

John Cox: 2018 GOP Governor Candidate. He won just 38% of the vote in the 2018 election, worst defeat since 1930

Caitlyn Jenner, Celebrity, Olympic Gold Medallist

Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego

Doug Ose, former Congressman

Kevin Faulconer has the resume. But can a ‘vanilla’ Republican win the California recall race?

Larry Elder holds the endorsements of Chuck Norris and Dennis Prager, another conservative talk show host and founder of Prager University

Kevin Faulconer holds the endorsement of Darrel Issa, US House Representative from California for the 50th district(R)

California Recall Polls 2021: Gavin Newsom is still not out of the woods

California Recall Election Polls 2021: How California has voted in previous electoral races.

It is no understatement to say that the Democratic Party dominates California lock, stock and barrel. Since the year 1994 the Republican Party has been on a downswing in the state with the only time it could put up a fight being in 2003 and 2006 in the Gubernatorial Race. But since then No Republican has won any elected office statewide.

For perhaps the first time , no Republican could qualify and appear on the ballot in the Election to the US Senate in the 2016 Senate Election
As per California voter registration statistics on February 2021. 46% of the state identifies as Democrat and 24% as Republican.

To think that Presidents Ronald Reagan(a Republican Hero) and Richard Nixon were denizens of this state and won it decisively just a few decades back boggles the minds of most people.

A) Presidential Races

Year
Democratic Candidate
Democrat Voteshare
Republican Candidate
Republican Voteshare
2004
John Kerry
54.31%
George Bush
44.36%
2008
Barack Obama
61.01%
John Mccain
36.95%
2012
Barack Obama
60.24%
Mitt Romney
37.12%
2016
Hillary Clinton
61.73%
Donald Trump
31.62%
2020
Joe Biden
63.48%
Donald Trump
34.32%

The last time a Republican Presidential Candidate won California was in 1992 and no Democrat has gone below a Voteshare of 50% since 1996.

B) Gubernatorial Races

Year
Winning Candidate
Winner’s Voteshare
Runner-Up
Runner-Up’s Vote share
2003-Recall
Arnold Schwarzenegger(R)
48.6%
Cruz Bustamente(D)
31.5%
2006
Arnold Schwarzenegger(R)
55.9%
Phil Angelides(D)
38.9%
2010
Jerry Brown(D)
53.8%
Meg Whitman(R)
40.9%
2014
Jerry Brown(D)
60%
Neel Kashkari(R)
40.%
2018
Gavin Newsom(D)
61.9%
John Cox(R)
38.1%

The last a Republican won the Gubernatorial Election was in 2003 when Arnold Schwarzenegger won the election in the 2003 Recall. Since then no Republican has come close to ousting a Democrat.

The 2003 Recall Election had 2 questions:-
First, Should Gray Davis the sitting Governor be recalled?

Second, If a majority votes to recall him who should potentially replace him?

Eventually ,55.4% voted in favor of the recall, and 44.6% opposed.

Arnold Schwarzenegger received a plurality of 48.6% by surpassing the Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamente’s 31.5% allying concerns that 2 Republican candidates would divide the votes

C) House of Representatives Races

Year
Democratic Party’s seats
Democratic Voteshare
Republican Party’s seats
Republican Voteshare
2010
34
53.39%
19
43.50%
2012
38
60.57%
15
37.12%
2014
39
58.91%
14
39.49%
2016
39
62.31%
14
36.89%
2018
45
65.74%
8
32.61%
2020
42
66.27%
11
33.73%

The last time the Republican Party got more than 40% of all votes in the House of Representatives Races was in 2010,since then it has slowly been losing more and more ground to the Democrats

California Recall Election Polls 2021: When did the Last Recall election take place?

According to California’s state law any governor can be subjected to recall if the opposition is able to garner the a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number of signatures to trigger a recall election is 12% of total votes polled in last election.

The secretary of the state verifies and certifies the recall election if the condition is met by the petitioner. A recall election must take place with 60-80 days of state secretary’s order.

In 2003 a recall election was initiated against the then Governor Gray Davis who was a Democrat. After the recall election Gray Davis was replaced by the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as new Governor of California.

Read: 2021 New Jersey Governor Election Opinion Polls and Latest News

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

17 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Art Estrada
Art Estrada
1 month ago

I’m with Gavin Newson all the way. He’s done a fine job for the state of California. No one comes even close to Gavin.

Native Californian
Native Californian
10 days ago
Reply to  Art Estrada

A fine job? Do you live here? The homeless population has increased exponentially, he caused the loss of a great number of businesses and jobs by keeping us locked up forever. He’ll do it again, while taking his ass out to fancy, ultra-expensive restaurants. He’s trying to take away our rights and keep his own. Our streets aren’t safe due to Newsom’s policies, liberal judges and lawyer are just releasing criminals back onto the streets, over 20,000. He reduced theft by letting criminals steel less than $1000 and not get arrested. This is insanity! Our gas is through the roof and inflation is making everything we buy, including groceries more expensive. He’s totally mismanaged our water. Two years ago Lake Shasta, and most likely all our lakes, were full. 75% of the Delta water was released into the ocean. Now we’re going to end up being rationed and all the while Newsom’s letting hundreds of thousands of illegals across our borders and use up our resources; water, electricity (while we’re having black and brown outs), medical, and others, that only citizens should have. The wall needs to be finished and immigrants regulated. Californians keep pumping loads of money into schools that are failing from Democrat policies. They are indoctrinating our children instead of giving them a good education. Then there is the over-inflated cost of real estate here. Families can’t afford to live here anymore and lots are moving out of the state, so are businesses.

So, I’ve given you multiple reasons why we need to Recall Gavin, give me a reason we shouldn’t.
“Crickets”

Charles Thomas Parker
Charles Thomas Parker
1 month ago
Reply to  Art Estrada

Gov hair Gel has been a total disaster for California. Despite his mishandling a host of serious issues, Illegal immigration, Unemployment fraud in excess of 30 Billion dollars,
destroying small business with his pandemic dictates, and the hypocrisy of dining maskless at the $400 a plate French Laundry hosted lobbyists to name but a few, his arrogance is on full display. His children sent to private schools for in person instruction, while he locks down CA schools for our children. Retire this self centered Oaf and replace his pension with the largest hand mirror money can buy.

John Plybon
John Plybon
25 days ago

Replacing Newsom is not going to solve any of California’s problems. Vote No on the recall.

Steve T
Steve T
22 days ago
Reply to  John Plybon

I think you are absolutely right on replacing Gavin Newsom. It will not solve any of California’s problems. To do that, you would need to replace all the other remaining Democrats in Office at the State and Local levels.. Then just maybe have a slim chance. For good measure get the Hollywood A-List Elites another round of hookers and blow to keep them occupied.

billyboy
billyboy
6 days ago

so hair gel and one fuck up with a dinner and you want to cancel him? CANCEL CULTURE!!!!

MikeO
MikeO
30 days ago

Why isn’t Kevin Paffrath included here? He’s getting a lot of traction and stands a much more real chance than Ose, Jenner, and probably Cox too.

Elders is too extreme, its either Faulconer or Paffrath for me.

Native Californian
Native Californian
10 days ago
Reply to  MikeO

Paffrath can’t possibly win. Check the polls; he’s barely made them. Elders is a good man with good policies. He’s not an extremist. He will clean our state up, fix bad policies and hopefully reduce our cost of living. We need to do better or we’ll keep losing people and businesses to other states.

Don Blackburn
Don Blackburn
28 days ago

CBS poll? LOL come on those polls are never accurate

Eat SHit and Die
Eat SHit and Die
21 days ago

Larry Elder and the people backing him should be HANGED or shot through the HEAD!!

billyboy
billyboy
6 days ago

jesus fucking christ dude. chill

Joan Alcala
20 days ago

I voted no already, my ballot was received and counted already…I answered question 2 as paffrath is my second choice…I’m totally not impressed by cox’s silly advertising or elders arrogance…Faulkner is a Republican therefore he’s out of my consideration…I have always been neutral in the past, but no longer until the Republicans stop their power grab.

LEZLIE Mlakar
LEZLIE Mlakar
14 days ago
Reply to  Joan Alcala

once you voted no you do not answer #2 nobody cares who you don’t want in office lol I am no party that voted yes start from the top dredge the pillaging legislators who betrayed us during COVID coma!! Just letting you know this is not a republican power grab this is Californians taking their state back after decades of pillaging our tax $$$

Native Californian
Native Californian
10 days ago
Reply to  Joan Alcala

You’ve got it backwards, honey, the Dems are the power grabbers. Tell me why politicians in their late 70’s and 80’s are still in office; the answer is clearly power. It’s more important to them than anything else. They don’t care about you and I, it’s all about them. They will keep taxing us to death, giving our money away to illegals and stuffing their own pockets. We can do better than Democrat policies!

R C Greene
R C Greene
19 days ago

The mere fact that the California recall law was written to require the incumbent to earn 50.1% of the vote to remain in office, while any challenger can win with a plurality only of the “Yes, Replace” votes, makes the unconstitutionality of this law a near certainty. Meanwhile, in Florida, where we desperately need a gubernatorial recall capability to save the lives of our citizens during this health crisis, we don’t have one.

Hersel Mikaelian
Hersel Mikaelian
15 days ago

The problem is not Gavin, it is the idiots who vote for him and can’t see where CA, is going. To those idiots, do you know last year 300,000 Californian natives picked up and left, and most large famous companies relocate to other states?
An idiot is always an idiot. has no eyes, no ears, and certainly no brian.

trackback

[…] the recently concluded California recall and Boston Mayoral Prelim election, Google search data was more accurate in predicting a landslide […]

17
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x