Latest California Recall Election Polls 2021 and Results: Newsom wins recall election by a HUGE margin
The Polls were wrong and as we mentioned earlier, the polls were underplaying Newsom’s votes. Google search data confirmed our hypothesis and today the data showed us that Governor Newsom was in fact performing better than the 2018 election.
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Google Search Update, Sep 14th
Search traffic for Newsom surged in California suggesting a big win for Newsom
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Polls Summary, Sep 14th
Gavin Newsom had averaged 48% NO, will not recall and 47% YES, will recall, in the 4 polls carried out in early August. This has improved to 56% (+9%) NO and the % of those willing to recall is down by 6% points. Gavin Newsom is relatively in a better position now.
These are the latest Gavin Newsom Recall Polls which have been released in chronological order
No, do not remove, %
California Recall Election Polls date
Average (Last 5)
30th Aug to 13th Sep
11th to 13th Sep
10th Sep to 11th Sep
2nd to 10th Sep
Average of 4 Older Polls
July 30th to 22nd Aug
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
20th to 22nd Aug
6th to 12th Aug
2nd to 4th Aug
July 30th to 1st Aug
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Crowd’s Forecasts and analysis
FINAL California Recall Prediction
My Prediction for the 2021 California Recall Election
FINAL California Recall Election Analysis & Prediction
As per the latest polls, the candidates who people will vote for to replace Gavin Newsom are:-
10th to 11th Sept
2nd to 10 th Sept
7th Sept to 8th Sept
6th to 7th Sep
30th Aug to 6th Sept
It must be mentioned that Gavin Newsom and state Democratic officials have asked their supporters and local Democrats to leave this question blank and not vote for anyone else as a sign of ‘protesting against this ballot and making sure the Democrat Party in the State stays united behind him. Thus there are no high profile democrats taking part in this race.
But we do have some low profile registered Democrats who have entered the race like Kevin Paffrath, Jacqueline McGowan, Brandon Ross, Holly Baade, John R. Drake, Patrick Kilpatrick and Joel Ventresca who are expected to pick up some votes and gain a recognizable though miniscule voteshare.
There are over 46 candidates vying to replace Newsom.
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Track Record of Pollsters in the 2018 California gubernatorial election
In the 2018 California gubernatorial election, Governor Gavin Newsom won 61.9% of the vote. The pollster that was closest to the result 2 weeks before the election was UC Berkeley. In this election cycle, UC Berkeley predicted a 51% support for Mr Newsom. However the poll was conducted in July, a full 2 months before the final voting day.
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Recall Odds Summary
To be recalled
Will not be recalled
Will not be recalled
–800 (To remain Governor, up -500)
Will not be recalled
94% (To remain Governor, up 13% last 2 weeks)
Will not be recalled
Canada Federal Election Polls and News
California Recall Election Polls 2021: The Latino Factor
As per Census 2020 statistics, Latinos are officially the largest community in California. Despite being about 28% of all registered voters in the state, they are a community that can not be ignored by anyone.
Latinos in California have historically voted for the Democrat Party in large numbers after Proposition 187 was passed, 64% of the community had voted for Newsom in the 2018 Gubernatorial Election.
But recent polls have shown a lot of discontent among the community against the Governor either due to the pandemic or because of their economic conditions. Latinos were 53% of all Covid cases and 45% of all deaths in the state despite being barely 40% of the population
Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said Newsom’s team can take no Latinos votes for granted.
“Latino focus groups after focus groups are saying, Democrat or Republican, I want to know what these mofos are going to do right now to make my life better, or I ain’t got time to hear none [of] it,”
California’s Latino population could decide the recall election
As per the Data for Progress poll, only 26% of Latinos will vote to recall Newsom
But the Survey USA poll says that 39% of Latinos will vote to recall Newsom;
The UC Berkeley poll says 31% of Latinos will vote to recall Newsom
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Latest News, Sep 14th
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Latest Videos , 14th Sep
What To Know On Eve Of California’s Gubernatorial Recall Election
California recall election down to final hours of campaigning
Residents fear for future of California days before recall election
Gov. Newsom, recall candidates campaign in final stretch
California’s Newsom Urges Voters to Turn in Ballots for Recall Election
California Recall: A Lifeline for Governor Newsom | NewsConference | NBCLA
Biden campaigns for Newsom ahead of California recall election
San Diego County officials say over 815,000 recall ballots returned as of Sunday
The High Stakes Of California’s Recall Race, Barbara Boxer interview
California Recall Election Polls 2021: Latest Tweets, 14th Sep
Originally tweeted by Orrin Heatlie (@recallgavin2020) on September 14, 2021.
What if you pulled out all the stops, spent 50 million dollars on your campaign, The Pesident, Vice President, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, former President Obama, Bernie Sanders and others spoke on your behalf and you STILL lost! What if then? What if? Happy Election Day!
Let’s not leave anything to chance — it’s time to get out there and VOTE NO!
End the failed Gavin Newsom experiment. It’s time for a change.
CA deputy district attorney blasts Gov. Newsom: ‘Failed to do his number one job’
Newsom says that @rosemcgowan’s allegations are false, but Rose has released the emails from his wife confirming them.
C’mon journalists, you can do it! You’re almost there!
TWO DAYS, California.
TWO DAYS to show the rest of the nation that we stand for:
– climate science
– women’s rights
– immigrant rights
– reproductive rights
– the minimum wage
– commonsense gun safety laws
It’s ALL on the ballot. VOTE NO.
California Recall Election Polls 2021: California Recall Candidates 2021 List
Larry Elder, Conservative Talk show host and author
John Cox: 2018 GOP Governor Candidate. He won just 38% of the vote in the 2018 election, worst defeat since 1930
Caitlyn Jenner, Celebrity, Olympic Gold Medallist
Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego
Doug Ose, former Congressman
Kevin Faulconer has the resume. But can a ‘vanilla’ Republican win the California recall race?
Larry Elder holds the endorsements of Chuck Norris and Dennis Prager, another conservative talk show host and founder of Prager University
Kevin Faulconer holds the endorsement of Darrel Issa, US House Representative from California for the 50th district(R)
California Recall Election Polls 2021: How California has voted in previous electoral races.
It is no understatement to say that the Democratic Party dominates California lock, stock and barrel. Since the year 1994 the Republican Party has been on a downswing in the state with the only time it could put up a fight being in 2003 and 2006 in the Gubernatorial Race. But since then No Republican has won any elected office statewide.
For perhaps the first time , no Republican could qualify and appear on the ballot in the Election to the US Senate in the 2016 Senate Election
As per California voter registration statistics on February 2021. 46% of the state identifies as Democrat and 24% as Republican.
To think that Presidents Ronald Reagan(a Republican Hero) and Richard Nixon were denizens of this state and won it decisively just a few decades back boggles the minds of most people.
A) Presidential Races
The last time a Republican Presidential Candidate won California was in 1992 and no Democrat has gone below a Voteshare of 50% since 1996.
B) Gubernatorial Races
Runner-Up’s Vote share
The last a Republican won the Gubernatorial Election was in 2003 when Arnold Schwarzenegger won the election in the 2003 Recall. Since then no Republican has come close to ousting a Democrat.
The 2003 Recall Election had 2 questions:-
First, Should Gray Davis the sitting Governor be recalled?
Second, If a majority votes to recall him who should potentially replace him?
Eventually ,55.4% voted in favor of the recall, and 44.6% opposed.
Arnold Schwarzenegger received a plurality of 48.6% by surpassing the Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamente’s 31.5% allying concerns that 2 Republican candidates would divide the votes
C) House of Representatives Races
Democratic Party’s seats
Republican Party’s seats
The last time the Republican Party got more than 40% of all votes in the House of Representatives Races was in 2010,since then it has slowly been losing more and more ground to the Democrats
California Recall Election Polls 2021: When did the Last Recall election take place?
According to California’s state law any governor can be subjected to recall if the opposition is able to garner the a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number of signatures to trigger a recall election is 12% of total votes polled in last election.
The secretary of the state verifies and certifies the recall election if the condition is met by the petitioner. A recall election must take place with 60-80 days of state secretary’s order.
In 2003 a recall election was initiated against the then Governor Gray Davis who was a Democrat. After the recall election Gray Davis was replaced by the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger as new Governor of California.