Florida Senate Polls 2022 and Predictions

Florida Senate Polls 2022 and Predictions

Florida Senate Polls 2022: The Latest Florida Senate Race Polls favor a win for Republican Marco Rubio. The Florida Senate Predictions 2022 are also in favor of Marco Rubio.

Florida Senate Polls 2022 (Average of last 3 Polls): Marco Rubio: 47%, Val Demings: 43%
Florida Senate Race 2022 Polls: Rubio: 50%, Demings: 41%
Florida Senate Predictions 2022: Marco Rubio Has Marginal Edge

Google Search Share (7 Days Average): Val Demings: 43%, Marco Rubio: 57%

Social Media Sentiment: Marco Rubio: -52.8%, Val Demings: -34.5%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Considering all the factors, we predict the election to be a close one with Marco Rubio having a marginal edge.

When Is Florida Senate Race?

The United States Florida Senate Election will be held on November 8th, 2022 to elect a member of the United States to represent the state of Florida. Both the Senate seats of the state of Florida are currently held by Republicans.

Florida Senate Race Prediction Table

Who is Leading?Trending Towards
PollsMarco RubioMarco Rubio
Google SearchVal DemingsDemings
Social Media SentimentVal DemingsDemings

Senator Rubio Hosts Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China Press Conference, Speaks on Threat of CCP.

YouTube video

Florida Senate Polls 2022: What are the Advantages of Marco Rubio?

The latest Florida Senate Race Polls have Marco Rubio leading by 11% over Val Demings. Here are the advantages or the factors helping Marco Rubio:

  • Florida has more likely been the Red State and the last time a Democrat won the senate race in Florida was back in the year 1998. Even this time, the latest survey shows that the registered Republican voters are more likely to vote for Marco Rubio. In the states of Ohio, PA, and Arizona, around 15% of the registered GOP voters voted for Democrats but in Florida, the case may not be the same as per the latest poll.
  • The latest survey found out the that favorability of Marco Rubio is higher than Val Demings in Florida. 42% of the respondents favored Marco Rubio while the favorability rate of Val Demings stood at 38%.
  • The population of Florida is majorly dominated by White Americans and Hispanics. They together comprise 78% of the total population with White Americans being 51%. Rubio has the support of over half of the White American Population while Demings commands the support of 37%. Among the Hispanics, both have equal support.
  • Black Voters have mainly supported the Democrats. But the population of Black voters in Florida is not as large as compared to other states. Florida has around 15% of the Black Voters and Demings has the support of 62% while Rubio has 18% support among the Black Voters.
  • Urban Voters have been the vote base of Democrats but in Florida but Rubio and Demings have equal support of the Urban voters but the Rural voters back Rubio over Demings. Over 50% of the Rural Voters support the candidacy of Marco Rubio while Demings’ support stands at just 31%.

When all these demographic compositions are considered, GOP candidate Marco Rubio is better placed to be re-elected as the Senator once again. However, as noticed in Kansas where a pro-abortion candidate defeated the GOP candidate, such an outcome cannot be ignored. Val Demings is pro-abortion and she has been targeting Marco Rubio on this issue. Currently, Marco Rubio has an advantage but as we move closer to the election, we can expect more twists and turns to take place.

As of now, we consider the Florida Senate Race wide open with both Demings and Rubio having equal chances of being elected as Senator from Florida.

What are the Chances of Marco Rubio Losing?

Marco Rubio has been the Florida Senator since 2010 and most of the polls have predicted him to win again. However, the latest poll has given a lead to Val Demings. Here is why Rubio could lose the election

1. Immigration as an Issue: Rubio won 2016 by 8% points, and 7% came in from those who felt immigration was the most important issue. Immigration mattered to 10% of the voters in 2016. Immigration matters now to just 6% of the voters which theoretically cuts Rubio’s lead by 6% points. Rubio rode on top of the Trump campaign and won in 2016. He is struggling as the issues have changed.

2. Roe vs Wade: Most voters in Florida are uncomfortable with Roe vs Wade being overturned. In 2016, Rubio won the female vote by 4%, he trails by 10%. That 7% swing against Rubio is enough to make the election a close contest

Florida Senate Polls: Observations and Insights

  • Marco Rubio won the 2016 election by an 8% margin, in the latest poll he is trailing Val Demings by 4%
    • He led 13% of men in 2016. In 2022, he leads by 3% against Demings
    • In 2016, He led by 15% amongst voters older than 44 years of age (60 % of voters). In 2022, he leads by 10% against Demings
    • He led by 28% amongst White voters in 2016. In 2022, he leads Demings by 11%
    • He led by 37% amongst Cuban Hispanic voters
  • Rubio struggled amongst these segments
    • In 2016, he trailed by 5% among voters under 45 years of age. In 2022, he trails Demings’ leads by 31%
    • Non-White voters (Excluding Cuban)
    • Those who had moderate opinions about immigration

The biggest variance between the Democratic party candidate and Rubio was on Immigration. Rubio led by 72 points amongst those voters. Unfortunately for Rubio, migration is important for only 6% of the voters, compared to 10% in 2016.

Latest campaign news
Democrat candidate Val Demings while campaigning said VA hospitals should be made all over the nation and the quality of health care should become better.
She also spoke about Gun Control, Public education, and Home Ownership.

Florida Senate Race 2022 Polls: Latest General Election Polls

Average of PollsSeptember 13th
Marco Rubio47%
Val Demings43%
Echelon InsightsSeptember 7th
Marco Rubio50%
Val Demings41%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 6th
Marco Rubio46%
Val Demings44%
Susquehanna PollingSeptember 4th
Marco Rubio47%
Val Demings44%

Florida has been a swing state on the national level for years but Donald Trump made huge inroads with Latino voters and especially Cuban-American voters in Miami Date county, resulting in a 3.5-point win, the largest margin of victory in Florida since 2004 by any presidential candidate.

Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American Republican who first won the election in the red wave of 2010, easily held on in 2016 after running for president unsuccessfully, defeating Democrat Patrick Murphy by 7.3 points and vastly outperforming Trump in the state who only managed to defeat Clinton by 1 point. This makes him a huge favorite for the 2022 election.

Florida Senate Predictions 2022

Florida Senate Race is gradually slipping out of the hands of the Democratic Party. The Florida Senate Predictions platform also predicts a win for the Republican Marco Rubio.

The last 6 elections have been tough for the Democrats in Florida. The Republicans won all 6 elections with an average lead of about 3.8%. The Democrats will need to swing 2-3% of the voters to win the next senate race between Rubio and Demings.

Florida Senate Race Odds

Marco Rubio (R)Val Demings (D)Predicted Winner
SmarketsOdds: 1.07Odds: 12.5Rubio

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Google Search Update

Google Search Volume: The Google Search Volume for Val Demings has been higher but Marco Rubio is gradually closing in.

September 20th
Marco Rubio57%
Val Demings43%
August 1st
Marco Rubio37%
Val Demings63%

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments

Social Media Sentiment: The Social media sentiment towards Val Demings has changed from negative to positive after she won the Primary election. The sentiments toward Marco Rubio remain to be negative.

September 20th
Rubio-52.8%
Demings-34.5%
August 1st
Rubio-3.3%
Demings-6.7%

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Latest Campaign Funding

Cash in Hand
Marco Rubio$13.1 m
Val Demings$13.2 m

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Latest Videos

YouTube video

Florida Senate Race Polls 2022: Latest Tweets

Florida Senate Polls 2022: Latest Campaign News

New York Times: Chuck Schumer to Push $15 Million Into Democrats’ Fight to Hold Senate

Washington Post: Florida Senate race suddenly looks risky for Marco Rubio

Miami Herald: Rubio balances Senate Intelligence leadership with defense of Trump in Mar-a-Lago case

Florida Senate Polls 2022: Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the US senator for Florida 2022?

The current senator of Florida is Republican Marco Rubio. However, Florida is set to vote to elect its new Senator on November 8th, 2022. From the Republican Party Mark Rubio is on the ballot while Congresswoman Val Demings will be representing the Democratic Party.

How often are senators up for reelection?

Senators are elected for 6 years. After every 6 years, the election is held to elect a new Senator from the state.

Florida Senate Polls: Demographics of Florida

As per the 2020 Census figures

DemographicProportion
White American51.5%
Hispanic American26.5%
African American14.5%
Asian Americans2.9%
Multiracial 3.7%
Others0.9%

70% of the State’s denizens identify as Christian and 3% identify as Jews. The two largest congregations are Protestants at 46% and Catholics at 21%.

Most of Florida’s Hispanics are Cubans. In fact, Florida as a state due to its close proximity to Cuba has the highest proportion of Cuban Americans in the country. Most of the community is well known for its antipathy to Communism or Socialism due to most of the community being forced to migrate due to the actions of the Communist government of Cuba.

There’s a large chunk of Puerto Ricans in Florida, especially in the Orlando Metro area. They moved to Florida due to its cultural similarities, the poor economic conditions in Puerto Rico, and after Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2018. The remaining Latino population is very diverse, hailing from various countries in South America including Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, etc.

Florida has been crowned as one of the best places to retire due to its weather and beaches. Thus the state also has a large retiree population. 20% of the population is over 65 years of age.

Florida Senate Polls 2022: Party Registration

Florida has been a reliable swing state since 1992 fiercely contested between the 2 major parties.

In the last 20 years, the Republican party has grown more powerful in Florida and has been able to win over most state-level elected offices. Currently, except for the Agriculture Commissioner, it holds nearly each and every single office in the state including the 2 Senate seats and 16/27 US House Representative Seats.

As per the latest figures released by the Florida Secretary of State:-

Read: Latest Florida Governor Polls

Florida Senate Polls 2022

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