Georgia Governor Polls 2022: Stacey Abrams fails to make headway, Brian Kemp leads comfortably over by 7 points

Georgia Governor Polls 2022: Stacey Abrams fails to make headway, Brian Kemp leads comfortably over by 7 points

Georgia Governor Polls: The incumbent Brain Kemp is set to return as Governor of Georgia once again. In the latest poll, he is ahead of Abrams by 7 points.

Georgia Governor Polls (Average of last 3 polls): Brian Kemp 51%, Stacey Abrams 44%
Georgia Governor Latest Poll: Brian Kemp 51%, Stacey Abrams 44%
Kemp is polling better than in 2018 as well as Biden against Trump.

Google Search Trends: Brian Kemp 73%, Stacey Abrams 27%
Social Media Sentiment: Brian Kemp -51%, Stacey Abrams -28%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Considering the poll numbers as well and adding poll indicators like Google Search volume and Social Media sentiment, we predict a win for the Republican Brian Kemp but we predict the election to have a wire finish.

When is the Georgia Governor’s Election?

Georgia is one of the biggest battleground states in 2022, hosting an extremely competitive Senate and Governor races on November 8th, 2022. The Governor’s race is a rematch between a hard-core conservative governor Brian Kemp and a nationally reckoned voting-rights activist Stacey Abrams. The two had a close contest in 2018 where Abrams nearly pulled off a historical blue flip in Georgia. Both Kemp and Abrams are poles apart in their ideologies and are now set to face each other in November midterms.

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on May 24, 2022. Brian Kemp won the GOP Primary defeating Trump-endorsed candidate David Perdue while Stacey Abrams won the Democratic Party’s Primary election with undisputed votes.

Hot in the Campaign

YouTube video

Georgia Governor Race: Prediction Table

Who is Leading?
PollsBrian Kemp
Google SearchBrian Kemp
Social Media SentimentStacey Abrams

Georgia Governor Race Polls: Previous Election

Georgia Governor Polls: Observations and Insights

1. Recent Polling shows Abrams trailing behind her Republican opponent, incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp with a little more than a month until the November election.

2. Kemp and Abrams are campaigning against each other for the second time after their 2018 faceoff where the republican governor scored a narrow victory by 1.4 points. However much has changed since then, Republican Governor Brian Kemp has established a strong incumbency for himself through his swift COVID response. He won the Republican Primary by 50 points despite being on Trump’s bad side. Stacey Abrams on the other hand played a pivotal role in Georgia’s historic blue flip in the 2020 Presidential elections.

3. A detailed analysis of Polling numbers reveal that during the 2018 elections Abrams was somewhat at par with Kemp on an average of polls. While the polling numbers for 2022 midterms are dominated by incumbent Governor Brian kemp.

4. Kemp has a net favorable rating of 5% among voters while Stacey Abrams stands at -4%.

5. A major challenge for Abrams in November would be to counter the incumbent Governor’s goodwill due to which she is losing even the democratic-leaning votes. This was quite evident in Georgia’s May primaries when a notable number of Blue-leaning voters had cast red ballots to help Kemp trounce his Trump-endorsed challenger.

6. Abram’s polling numbers are declining as November approaches and are not justifiable to her strong democratic image or her excessive spending advantage.

7. Stacey Abrams has raised around $49 million while the incumbent governor has raised over $31 million for his reelection campaign. According to the fundraising profile of Stacey Abrams, only around 14% of donations are made by Georgians, while most of it comes from wealthy coastal democrats, especially from California. While her counterpart Brian Kemp has raised over 83% of his funds from in-state donors.

8. The Republicans have been aggressive and their policies against crimes have been highly popular. As per the data, around 10% of voters experienced burglary and theft in a 4 year period. Abrams fails in this field.

9. One of the interesting findings of the survey is Kemp leads Abrams by 67%-31% among the white women and among the white men Kemp enjoys the support of 73%.

Read Coverage of Walker vs Warnock Polls here

Georgia Governor Race Polls: Stacey Abrams Polls

Average of Georgia Governor PollsSeptember 24th, 2022
Brian Kemp51%
Stacey Abrams44%
Data for ProgressSeptember 20th
Brian Kemp51%
Stacey Abrams44%
CBS NewsSeptember 19th
Brian Kemp52%
Stacey Abrams46%
University of GeorgiaSeptember 16th
Brian Kemp50%
Stacey Abrams42%

Georgia Governor Election 2022 Predictions: The Issues

  • Abortion rights and the overruling of Roe v. Wade have been thrust into the center of the Democratic campaigns, especially for Governor elections. Gov. Brian Kemp called the ruling “a historic victory for life”  while his Democratic Rival Stacey Abrams opposed Georgia’s abortion laws and called the decision “draconian”.
  • The Democrats are trying to appeal emotionally to the women voters by connecting with them on a personal level. Stacey Abrams at one such event sat with 6 women in a basement to hear their personal stories of miscarriage. She tried to take on the uncertainty caused by the change in laws to connect with women voters and influence them.
  • Another major issue influencing the Georgia Governor election is the Crime Rate. Brian Kemp is leading Stacey Abrams by 12 points on crime. He continued to tie Abrams to the issue of Defunding the police and recently questioned her choice to have private security.
  • Stacey Abrams is replying back to Kemp’s allegations of being anti-police, by calling out the Governor for being weak against Crime. In her recent campaign Ad titled ‘Truth’, she is quoted saying “Brian Kemp wants you to be afraid of me. Why? Because he thinks it will distract Georgians from the truth.”, further she pledges to support and finance Law enforcement officers if elected to the office.

Georgia Governor Polls: Brian Kemp Approval Rating

Brian Kemp defeated the Trump-endorsed candidate David Perdue and he defeated David Perdue by a huge margin. In other words, Kemp crushed Perdue in the Primary election despite Trump backing Perdue. The vote difference between Kemp and Perdue was 74%-22%.

After the victory of Brian Kemp, the Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changed from Toss-Up to lean Republican for the November 8th Governor polls.

Talking about the Approval Rating of Brain Kemp, as per the latest Approval rating by Quinnipiac University a little over half i.e. 51% of Georgians approve of Kemp’s performance as a governor while around 44% disapprove of the same.

Georgia has grown faster than the national average by a tiny margin on personal income growth, and by a wide margin on homicide mortality (a surrogate for a crime). It has performed decently well in terms of national average Health Insurance costs.

Brian Kemp vs Stacey Abrams Georgia Governor Race Polls: Google Search Trends

Past 7 Days
Brian Kemp73%
Stacey Abrams27%
Past 30 Days
Brian Kemp57%
Stacey Abrams43%

Georgia Governor Race 2022 Polls: Net Social Media Sentiment

September 24th
Kemp-51%
Abrams-28%
August 18th
Kemp-55.7%
Abrams+47.3%
June 18th
Kemp-4.3%
Abrams+0.7%

Georgia Governor Polls: Latest Videos

YouTube video

Georgia Governor Race Polls: Latest Tweets

Georgia Governor Polls: 3 Reasons why Stacey Abrams is struggling against Kemp

It is early in the campaign but Stacey Abrams is struggling on issues that matter to voters of Georgia today.

Figures in brackets indicate the lead they have over the other candidate

Georgia Governor Polls: The problems for Stacey Abrams

Stacey Abrams Views on Gun Control Law

Abrams is trailing Governor Kemp by 12 on Crime. Her approach to Crime has been to talk about Gun Control as it emotionally connects well with voters given the recent series of shootings. However, this approach is not connected with the facts on the ground.

In the year 2020, 73% of the reported cases of Crime in Georgia were related to Burglary and Theft while serious cases of assault, rape, and murder made up for 16% of the cases. So, as far as lived experiences go, 122,000 voters in Georgia experienced crimes like burglary and theft while serious cases were experienced by 27,000 voters.

In a non-COVID year like 2019, Thefts and Burglaries made up 164,000 cases. One can assume that about half a million voters experienced burglary and theft in a 4 year period. That is about 10% of the voters.

This is why the Republican stand on aggressive policing is quite popular as it is designed to find the criminals before they come to steal at your home. Stacey Abrams cannot support aggressive policing as it could conflict with African American voters who make up 32% of the voters and many would believe that they are unfairly targeted by the Police.

Economy

The Campaign has so far failed to come up with an alternate idea that would connect well with both black and white voters.

The Economy is a particularly important issue because Joe Biden is blamed for the rising cost of living. While inflation is expected to ease and voters in Georgia already pay the lowest rates for Gas in the country, there are numerous voters who are lagging behind

On the economy, Stacey Abrams’s campaign targeted Teachers for lower minimum pay though teachers and their families make up less than 5% of all voters. However, she has been reluctant to talk about minimum wage.

Florida under Ron DeSantis has gone ahead and is implementing a $15 minimum wage over the next 4 years. Both states have economies that look a little like each other. 1 Million employees in Georgia make less than that $15 level, a huge vote opportunity for Stacey Abrams.

While she supports Governor Kemp’s tax cuts, that only helps Governor Kemp and not her. Irrespective of whether a minimum wage is a good or bad idea, Stacey Abrams lacks ideas that could be popular with a lot of voters which can then actually translate to a large swing in her favor.

Others Issues

As a consequence, apart from Healthcare which is a strong Democratic Party platform, Stacey Abrams is underperforming on functional issues (Practical) trailing Kemp on 3 out of 4 major issues. This in turn is causing her to trail amongst segments that are more focussed on functional issues like the economy – Men, Independents, and older voters. In fact, she is underperforming amongst these voters compared to 2018 as well

Abrams is struggling amongst older voters compared to Biden. One could say that higher inflation is hurting these voters the most.

Biden hammered Trump amongst Independents winning by 9% points, and Abrams on the other hand is trailing by 3%, a swing of 12%.

Biden also won amongst women by a much larger margin than Stacey Abrams’s current lead

Focussing too much on racial issues and voter suppression will mobilize black voters better but won’t win the election.

Unlike the 2018 Gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams is up against an Incumbent Republican Governor with a healthy approval rating built on performance and clever politics. Second, unlike the election in 2018, Stacey Abrams is running against the Biden headwinds of Inflation and Immigration.

Third, Brian Kemp has survived repeated assaults from Donald Trump and is in a much more confident position than he was in 2018. He conducted himself with dignity during the 2020 election and will not be seen as a rank partisan in the mold of say Ron DeSantis or even Greg Abbott.

All of these make the 2022 election an entirely new game for the Democrats in Georgia. It needs new thinking and new tactics and the Abrams campaign so far seems to be struggling to come up with ideas needed to break through against Kemp.

Georgia Governor Polls: Endorsements

The Georgian Partisan Lean: How Georgia became a swing state

Before the 2020 elections, Georgia was predominantly a red state and it had been over 20 years since democrats won any senate, governor, or presidential elections there. However, the state has emerged as a crucial political battleground for democrats. The democratic party has established a strong base for itself over the last 14 years.

The factors contributing to the partisan lean are:

  • The Atlanta metro area is one the fastest and most rapidly growing regions of the country and democrats are winning a majority of the new voters here. That widens the voter base as 2/3rd of the Georgians call Atlanta their home.
  • The black and Latino voter population are casting votes in higher percentages before 2020. This is an added advantage for the democrats especially in the midterms since Stacey Abrams is campaigning for the governor race.
  • Asian voters now make up a considerable proportion of the electorate and they have a favorable image of democrats.
  • The democrats have made considerable progress with white college-educated voters. In 2020 democrats lost 55% to 44% which improved from a loss of 69% to 28% in 2016 elections.

Georgia Governor Elections: Primary Results

Georgia Governor Polls: Frequently Asked Questions

  • Who is running for governor in 2022?

For the upcoming Georgia Governor Race, the Republican Party is represented by the incumbent Governor Brian Kemp while the Democratic Party is represented by Stacey Abrams.

  • How many terms can a Leader be Governor In Georgia?

In Georgia, a Governor serves for 4 years. After the end of 4 years, the incumbent can choose for re-election and if the Governor is able to win the re-election, the Governor serves for 4 more years. A Governor cannot serve for more than 8 years in Georgia.

  • Has Georgia ever had a female governor?

In the United States, a total of 19 states are yet to have a female Governor. Georgia is one of the 19 states yet to have a female governor.

  • Who was first black governor of Georgia?

The first black governor of Georgia was P. B. S. Pinchback. He was the 24th Governor of Georgia and was elected as the Governor in the year 1872.

Georgia Governor Polls: What Happened In the Last Election?

In the last Georgia gubernatorial election held on November 6, 2018, the Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp was up against Democratic former State Representative Stacey Abrams.

The election result was quite close as Brian Kemp got 50.2% of the total votes while Stacey Abrams won 48.8% of the votes. After the election result, Brian Kemp went on to become the new Governor of Georgia replacing the Republican Nathan Deal.

Georgia Governor Race Polls: Demographics of Georgia Voters

The rapid diversification of Georgia has made it a battleground as many educated professionals populate the Atalanta metro area which has boomed in population this century.

The suburban counties (Gwinnett and Cobb) around Atalanta are now extremely diverse and have swung Democratic giving Biden nearly 20-point margins after voting for a Republican as President as late as 2012. These form a part of the “New South” and will likely decide this race.

Read all the latest US Polls here

Georgia Governor Polls: Will Lower inflation help Stacey Abrams beat Brian Kemp?