Georgia Governor Polls: Kemp proposes tax rebates, hopeful of a second term as governor, while Abrams trails in polls
|Georgia Governor Polls: Brian Kemp 47.6%, Stacey Abrams 45%|
Kemp is polling better than in 2018 as well as Biden against Trump.
Google Search: Brian Kemp 56.6%, Stacey Abrams 43.4%
Abrams is trailing her own performance in 2018 though she appears to have picked momentum in the last few days. In terms of search volume, both Kemp and Abrams are tied at the moment.
Social Media Sentiment: Brian Kemp -52.3%, Stacey Abrams +12%
Read the most comprehensive analysis of Polls, Google Search Data, Social Media sentiments, News coverage, Tweets, and YouTube Videos.
Georgia is one of the biggest battleground states in 2022, hosting an extremely competitive Senate and Governor races on November 8th, 2022.
The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on May 24, 2022. Brian Kemp won the GOP Primary while Stacey Abrams won the Democratic Party’s Primary election.
Kemp and Abrams economic plans | What we know
Georgia Governor Race: Prediction Table
|Who is Leading?|
|Google Search||Brian Kemp|
|Social Media Sentiment||Stacey Abrams|
Georgia Governor Polls: Observations and Insights
- Georgia’s Republican Governor Brian Kemp is maintaining his lead over Stacey Abrams by over five points. According to the recent Georgia Governor polls conducted by Cygnal. Kemp enjoys a 50-45 lead over Abrams despite the democratic candidate’s spending advantage.
- Stacey Abrams has raised around $49 million while the incumbent governor has raised over $31 million for his reelection campaign.
- Kemp and Abrams are campaigning against each other for the second time after their 2018 faceoff where the republican governor scored a narrow victory by 1.4 points. However much has changed since then, Republican Governor Brian Kemp has established a strong incumbency for himself through his swift COVID response. He won the Republican Primary by 50 points despite being on Trump’s bad side. Stacey Abrams on the other hand played a pivotal role in Georgia’s historic blue flip in the 2020 Presidential elections.
- Kemp has a net favorable rating of 5% among voters while Stacey Abrams stands at -4%.
- One of the main factors influencing the Georgia Governor election is the Crime Rate. Brian Kemp is leading Stacey Abrams by 12 points on crime. He continued to tie Abrams to the issue of Defunding the police and recently questioned her choice to have private security.
- According to the fundraising profile of Stacey Abrams, only around 14% of donations are made by Georgians, while most of it comes from wealthy coastal democrats, especially from California. While her counterpart Brian Kemp has raised over 83% of his funds from in-state donors.
- Stacey Abrams is replying back to Kemp’s allegations of being anti-police, by calling out the Governor for being weak against Crime. In her recent campaign Ad titled ‘Truth’, she is quoted saying “Brian Kemp wants you to be afraid of me. Why? Because he thinks it will distract Georgians from the truth.”, further she pledges to support and finance Law enforcement officers if elected to the office.
- The Republicans have been aggressive and their policies against crimes have been highly popular. As per the data, around 10% of voters experienced burglary and theft in a 4 year period. Abrams fails in this field.
- One of the interesting findings of the survey is Kemp leads Abrams by 67%-31% among the white women and among the white men Kemp enjoys the support of 73%.
Georgia Governor Race Polls: Stacey Abrams Polls
|Average of Georgia Governor Polls||August 13th, 2022|
|Political Polls||August 10th|
|Insider Advantage||July 26-27th|
|FOX News||July 22-26th|
Georgia Governor Polls: Brian Kemp Approval Rating
Brian Kemp defeated the Trump-endorsed candidate David Perdue and he defeated David Perdue by a huge margin. In other words, Kemp crushed Perdue in the Primary election despite Trump backing Perdue. The vote difference between Kemp and Perdue was 74%-22%.
After the victory of Brian Kemp, the Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changed from Toss-Up to lean Republican for the November 8th Governor polls.
Talking about the Approval Rating of Brain Kemp, as per the latest Approval rating by Morning Post half of Georgia voters, including 76% of Republicans, approve of Brian Kemp’s job performance.
Georgia has grown faster than the national average by a tiny margin on personal income growth, and by a wide margin on homicide mortality (a surrogate for a crime). It has performed decently well in terms of national average Health Insurance costs.
|Personal Income per capita Growth (2021 vs 2018)*||18.1%||17.9%|
|Change in Homicide Mortality (2020 vs 2018)||18.8%||29.3%|
|Annual Health Insurance (40-Year-old) as a Proportion of Per Capita||6.05%||10.2%|
Brian Kemp vs Stacey Abrams Georgia Governor Race Polls: Google Search Trends
Georgia Governor Race 2022 Polls: Net Social Media Sentiment
Georgia Governor Polls: Latest Videos
Georgia Governor Race Polls: Latest Tweets
Georgia Governor Polls: 3 Reasons why Stacey Abrams is struggling against Kemp
It is early in the campaign but Stacey Abrams is struggling on issues that matter to voters of Georgia today.
|Brian Kemp’s Strengths||Stacey Abrams’s Strengths|
|Immigration (+87%)||Healthcare (+25%)|
|Economy (+34%)||Racial Issues (+70%)|
Figures in brackets indicate the lead they have over the other candidate
Georgia Governor Polls: The problems for Stacey Abrams
- Abrams is trailing Governor Kemp by 12 on Crime. Her approach to Crime has been to talk about Gun Control as it emotionally connects well with voters given the recent series of shootings
- However, this approach is not connected with the facts on the ground.
- In the year 2020, 73% of the reported cases of Crime in Georgia were related to Burglary and Theft while serious cases of assault, rape, and murder made up for 16% of the cases. So, as far as lived experiences go, 122,000 voters in Georgia experienced crimes like burglary and theft while serious cases were experienced by 27,000 voters.
- In a non-COVID year like 2019, Thefts and Burglaries made up 164,000 cases. One can assume that about half a million voters experienced burglary and theft in a 4 year period. That is about 10% of the voters.
- This is why the Republican stand on aggressive policing is quite popular as it is designed to find the criminals before they come to steal at your home. Stacey Abrams cannot support aggressive policing as it could conflict with African American voters who make up 32% of the voters and many would believe that they are unfairly targeted by the Police. The Campaign has so far failed to come up with an alternate idea that would connect well with both black and white voters.
- However, this approach is not connected with the facts on the ground.
It is the Governors of the South who will say who we are gonna be nextStacey Abrams Speech (Below Video)
- The Economy is a particularly important issue because Joe Biden is blamed for the rising cost of living. While inflation is expected to ease and voters in Georgia already pay the lowest rates for Gas in the country, there are numerous voters who are lagging behind
- On the economy, Stacey Abrams’s campaign targeted Teachers for lower minimum pay though teachers and their families make up less than 5% of all voters. However, she has been reluctant to talk about minimum wage.
- Florida under Ron DeSantis has gone ahead and is implementing a $15 minimum wage over the next 4 years. Both states have economies that look a little like each other. 1 Million employees in Georgia make less than that $15 level, a huge vote opportunity for Stacey Abrams.
- While she supports Governor Kemp’s tax cuts, that only helps Governor Kemp and not her. Irrespective of whether a minimum wage is a good or bad idea, Stacey Abrams lacks ideas that could be popular with a lot of voters which can then actually translate to a large swing in her favor.
- As a consequence, apart from Healthcare which is a strong Democratic Party platform, Stacey Abrams is underperforming on functional issues (Practical) trailing Kemp on 3 out of 4 major issues. This in turn is causing her to trail amongst segments that are more focussed on functional issues like the economy – Men, Independents, and older voters. In fact, she is underperforming amongst these voters compared to 2018 as well
- Abrams is struggling amongst older voters compared to Biden. One could say that higher inflation is hurting these voters the most.
- Biden hammered Trump amongst Independents winning by 9% points, and Abrams on the other hand is trailing by 3%, a swing of 12%.
- Biden also won amongst women by a much larger margin than Stacey Abrams’s current lead
- Focussing too much on racial issues and voter suppression will mobilize black voters better but won’t win the election.
|Brian Kemp’s Strengths||Stacey Abrams’s Strengths|
|White Voters (+47%)||Black Voters (+72%)|
|Affluent Voters (+20%)||Voters below the age of 50 years (7%)|
|Voters older than 50 years (+15%)||Lower Income groups (+11%)|
Unlike the 2018 Gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams is up against an Incumbent Republican Governor with a healthy approval rating built on performance and clever politics. Second, unlike the election in 2018, Stacey Abrams is running against the Biden headwinds of Inflation and Immigration. Third, Brian Kemp has survived repeated assaults from Donald Trump and is in a much more confident position than he was in 2018. He conducted himself with dignity during the 2020 election and will not be seen as a rank partisan in the mold of say Ron DeSantis or even Greg Abbott.
All of these make the 2022 election an entirely new game for the Democrats in Georgia. It needs new thinking and new tactics and the Abrams campaign so far seems to be struggling to come up with ideas needed to break through against Kemp.
Georgia Governor Polls: Frequently Asked Questions
- Who is running for governor in 2022?
For the upcoming Georgia Governor Race, the Republican Party is represented by the incumbent Governor Brian Kemp while the Democratic Party is represented by Stacey Abrams.
- How many terms can a Leader be Governor In Georgia?
In Georgia, a Governor serves for 4 years. After the end of 4 years, the incumbent can choose for re-election and if the Governor is able to win the re-election, the Governor serves for 4 more years. A Governor cannot serve for more than 8 years in Georgia.
- Has Georgia ever had a female governor?
In the United States, a total of 19 states are yet to have a female Governor. Georgia is one of the 19 states yet to have a female governor.
- Who was first black governor of Georgia?
The first black governor of Georgia was P. B. S. Pinchback. He was the 24th Governor of Georgia and was elected as the Governor in the year 1872.
Georgia Governor Race Polls: Previous Election
|2014 Gubernatorial||2016 Presidential||2018 Gubernatorial||2020 Presidential|
|Total Voted||2.55 m||3.96 m||3.93 m||4.9 m|
|Last 3 Polls Average||49%||–||49%||–|
|State Wide Result||52.7%||50.3%||50.2%||49.5%|
Georgia Governor Polls: Primary Results
Democratic Primary Results
|Stacey Abrams||1,110,490 votes||Uncontested (100%)|
GOP Primary Results
|Brian Kemp||8,79,705 votes||Won (73.7%)|
|David Perdue||260,811 votes||21.8%|
|Kandiss Taylor||40,960 votes||3.4%|
Georgia Governor Polls: What Happened In the Last Election?
In the last Georgia gubernatorial election held on November 6, 2018, the Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp was up against Democratic former State Representative Stacey Abrams.
The election result was quite close as Brian Kemp got 50.2% of the total votes while Stacey Abrams won 48.8% of the votes. After the election result, Brian Kemp went on to become the new Governor of Georgia replacing the Republican Nathan Deal.
Georgia Governor Race Polls: Demographics of Georgia Voters
|White American (non-Hispanic)||52.8%|
The rapid diversification of Georgia has made it a battleground as many educated professionals populate the Atalanta metro area which has boomed in population this century. The suburban counties (Gwinnett and Cobb) around Atalanta are now extremely diverse and have swung Democratic giving Biden nearly 20-point margins after voting for a Republican as President as late as 2012. These form a part of the “New South” and will likely decide this race.