Georgia Senate Polls: Raphael Warnock Ahead But Herschel Walker Narrows Gap
|August 9th: Georgia Senate Polls: Average of GA Senate Polls (Last 3 Polls): Warnock: 48%, Walker: 42%|
Latest Herschel Walker Polls: Raphael Warnock: 48% Herschel Walker: 43%
Google Search Volumes: Raphael Warnock has been trailing Herschel Walker in search volume. The latest data shows that Walker is ahead of Warnock by a massive 34%.
Social Media Sentiments: In the last few days, there has been a huge improvement in the Social media sentiment of Herschel Walker.
Latest Social Media Sentiment Data: Herschel Walker: -20.7% Raphael Warnock: -18.1%
Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Walker to win by less than a 5% margin
When is the Georgia Senate Race?
The Georgia Senate Race 2022 will be held on November 8th, 2022 to elect a member of the US Senate from Georgia. On May 24 Primary election was held and Raphael Warnock won the Democratic Party’s Primary race by a huge margin. He polled 96% of the total votes.
In the GOP Primary race, Herschel Walker registered a massive win. He polled 68.2% of the total votes while his closest rival Gary Black polled only 13.4% of the total votes.
On November 8th Georgia will vote once again to elect its new Senator. Currently, Raphael Warnock is the incumbent senator who won the 2021-21 Special senate election defeating the Republican Kelly Loeffler.
GA Senate Polls: Georgia Election Prediction Table
|Who is Leading?|
|Warnock vs Walker Polls||Warnock|
|Social Media Sentiment||Walker|
|Latest Poll Insights|
Herschel Walker has narrowed the gap with Warnock. Of the last 3 latest polls, Walker is ahead of Warnock in one poll by 4% while in the rest of the two polls Walker is trailing by 3%.
What Does our Observation Say?
1. Looking at the current momentum of Walker, the path to victory for Raphael Warnock may not be easy.
2. The Google search volume of Herschel Walker has been higher than Warnock and this is now being reflected in the poll numbers.
3. Even the social media sentiment for Walker has improved in comparison to that of Raphael Warnock.
4. If Walker is able to maintain the current momentum he may the next Georgia Senate.
Georgia Senate Polls: Why Herschel Walker Can Win the Georgia Senate Race?
- Raphael Warnock leads by 1% (average of last 3 polls) which is not insurmountable by any standards.
- On Google search as well as Social media metrics, Walker is ahead of Warnock. This is often a precursor for a bump in poll numbers as well.
- Walker trails Republican Governor Kemp by at least 6% in many polls. This may sound like bad news today but could also indicate an opportunity. As we reach closer to the election, Georgia Republicans could push Walker over the finishing line by mobilizing those voters who are pro-Kemp but are not pro-Walker today. This will depend on how Trump vs Kemp plays out in the election. This is particularly true amongst White voters where Walker trails Kemp by 10 points.
- Walker’s struggles are amongst Moderate voters and he has more than enough time to pivot to less extremist positions before the election to swing a few of these voters.
Herschel Walker Georgia Senate Polls
Warnock continues to lead Walker in most recent Georgia Senate Polls. But the margin is quite narrow and the election could go either way.
|Average Of Polls||August 8th|
|Poll Project USA||August 8th|
|Survey USA||July 30th|
|InsiderAdvantage (R)||July 24th|
Georgia Senate Race Polls 2022: Google Search Trends
Herschel Walker leads by a huge margin on Google search but with Social media sentiment at -50%, he is trailing in most Georgia Polls.
|2020 US Presidential Election|
Herschel Walker Polls: Social Media Sentiment Tracker
Georgia Senate Polls 2022: Latest News
- Campaign ad recalls Herschel Walker’s ex-wife’s claim he threatened to kill her
- Georgia Democrats score legislative wins in Senate spending bill
- G.O.P. Group Targets Herschel Walker With Ad on Domestic Abuse Accusations
- Democrats fail to overrule parliamentarian on insulin price cap as GOP votes no
- Rick Scott fumbles defense of scandal-plagued Senate candidates
- Senate approves spending bill, with votes from Warnock and Ossoff
- Five eye-catching midterm ads from this week
Georgia Senate Polls 2022: Latest Videos and Ads
Herschel Walker Polls: Latest Tweets
From saving seniors money by allowing Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices, to expanding vital health care savings, to greening the economy, the Inflation Reduction Act will make a real change in Georgians’ lives!
Georgia Senate Race Polls 2022: Fundraising
|Candidate||Raised||Spent||Cash on Hand||Last Report|
|Raphael Warnock (D)||$29,783,588||$10,068,486||$22,946,147||12/31/2021|
|Herschel Walker (R)||$20,015,022||$13,219,412||$6,795,610||06/30/2022|
|Chase Oliver (L)||$7,790||$2,607||$991||06/30/2022|
The Democratic nominee and the incumbent Senator from Georgia, Raphael Warnock has been able to raise the maximum fund to fund his campaign. He has been able to raise close to $30M as of now. His total expenditure from the raised fund is slightly over $10M while he has close to $23M funds in his hand. The data is as of December 31st for Raphael Warnock.
Talking about the GOP nominee, Herschel Walker, he has not been able to raise as many funds as raised by Raphael Warnock. As of June 30th, 2022, Herschel Walker has been successful in raising $20M for his campaign. He has already spent over $13M as of now. Currently or as per the latest data, Herschel Walker has around $6.7M cash on hand.
Outside Spending by Candidates
|Warnock, Raphael (D)||$3,788,054||$4,538,796||$8,326,850|
|Walker, Herschel (R)||$1,971,937||$5,821,742||$7,793,679|
Looking at the outside spending by the candidates, that is the spending outside the raised fund, Raphael Warnock has more spending as compared to Herschel Walker. As of now, Raphael Warnock has had outside spending of over $8M. Herschel Walker on the other hand has had outside spending close to $7.8M. This is around $500,000 less than the expenditure of Raphael Warnock as of now.
Warnock’s campaign has pumped more money to make sure the Democratic Party retains the Senator sear from the state of Georgia.
- In the last 5 Georgia polls released in June and July, Herschel Walker is ahead in just 1 of the 5 Polls. It is a tie in another. Warnock is outperforming Stacey Abrams amongst Independent voters as well as Women. Warnock is outperforming Stacey Abrams amongst White men and women.
- In the Georgia Governor Polls, Brian Kemp is leading by 5% while Walker trails by 4% in the Georgia Senate Polls. The Net Social media sentiment for Herschel Walker in Georgia is at -50%. Brian Kemp is at -24%. A dangerous sign for any candidate in any election
- Herschel Walker is suffering from his missteps over the last few weeks but this is typical of most campaigns in any election. With 100 days left to go, he has enough time to rebuild his campaign. For example, 21% of voters do not have any opinion of Herschel Walker. He could win the 2022 election by just gaining a favorable opinion amongst 60-70% of these voters
- Raphael Warnock is gaining from Herschel Walker’s missteps but this is unlikely to continue until voting day. He will need to win this election on his record as well. In the last 5 Georgia polls, Warnock has never polled below 45%, and he is at 49% approval, both are excellent signs for him to win the 2022 senate race
- Raphael Warnock does not necessarily have an easy way to win the election given the state of the US economy and the climate against the Democrats. However, if Inflation falls rapidly by November, he could win the election again.
- While Walker cannot afford to alienate Donald Trump’s large partisan base in Georgia he is better off perhaps aligning himself with Governor Kemp who is far more popular.
Georgia Senate Race Polls 2022: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result
Since 2004, the state of Georgia has had a Republican Senate but it was in the 2020-21 Special election when the Democratic Party was able to make a comeback in the state and Raphael Warnock was elected as a Senator from Georgia. The last three senate elections in Georgia were held in the year 2010, 2016, and 2020 -21 (Special Election). In the last 3 elections, in two elections, a Republican was elected to US Senate and a Democrat in the last election. Here are the details for the last 3 senate elections in Georgia:
2020-21 Georgia Senate Election: In December 2019, Republican Senator Jonny Isakson resigned. After his resignation, the seat of Senator from Georgia fell vacant. The Governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler as an interim replacement for Isakson until the special election was held to fill up the vacant seat.
On November 3rd, 2020, the special election to elect the Senator from Georgia was held. On the ballot was Kelly Isakson a GOP candidate and Raphael Warnock represented the Democratic Party. The November 3rd election did not give the outcome as none of the candidates breached the threshold of 50% vote share. A runoff election was held on January 5th, 2021. Raphael Warnock defeated the Republican Kelly Isakson by 51% to 49% votes.
The polls for the Special election also predicted none of the candidates winning in the first round of voting. Raphael Warnock was shown to be leading in the polls but falling short of the majority. However, in the runoff election, many polling firms had predicted the Republican candidate to win. But the result was opposite to the prediction. Raphael Warnock after 17 years, flipped the state.
2016 Georgia Senate Election: The 2016 Georgia Senate election was held on November 8th, 2016. The incumbent senator Johnny Isakson was seeking his re-election for the 3rd term in the office. Jim Barksdale was his Democratic Party’s rival.
The polls for the election predicted Isakson to poll maximum votes but most of the polls predicted the election to be decided in the runoffs. However, the election result was hugely in favor of Johnny Isakson. He received 54.8% of the total votes while his Democratic Party rival Jim Barksdale polled 41% vote share. Jonny Isakson went on to become the Senator of Georgia for the 3rd consecutive time.
2010 Georgia Senate Election: In 2010 the Republican Senator Johnny Isakson was seeking re-election for his 2nd term. His Democratic Party’s opponent was Mike Thurmond. The election was held on November 2nd, 2010.
The polls predicted an easy win of the Republican candidate Johnny Isakson with almost all the polls giving his over 50% vote share. The election result was in accordance with the polls. Johnny Isakson went on to become the senator from Georgia for the 2nd term. He received a 58.3% vote share while his nearest Democratic Party rival Mike Thurmond polled 39% of the total votes.
Georgia Senate Polls 2022: How Trump Is Facing Defeat in Georgia?
Donald Trump has been one of the most popular Republicans and in the ongoing Primary election heading for the November 8th mid-term election, Trump has endorsed candidates in different states. In most of the states, his endorsed candidates have been able to secure wins but in Georgia Trump has failed as most of his endorsements have lost elections.
The very first setback for Trump in Georgia came when his endorsed candidate for the Georgia Governor race, David Purdue lost by a huge margin against the incumbent Governor Brian Kemp in the GOP Primary Race.
Trump faced more setbacks on June 21st in Georgia. Trump-endorsed pair of candidates lost US House Primary runoffs. In the 10th Congressional district, Kemp-backed businessman Mike Collins defeated Trump-backed former Democratic state Rep. Vernon Jones.
In the 6th Congressional District also, Trump-endorsed candidate Jake Evans lost to Rich McCormick.
The back-to-back defeat of Trump-endorsed candidates in Georgia shows his decreasing popularity but it will be a concern for Herschel Walker who Donald Trump has endorsed.
Georgia Polls: Major Republican Endorsements
Herschel Walker is the front-runner as a GOP candidate for the upcoming Georgia Senate election. He has been able to garner big endorsements. The latest endorsement for Herschel Walker’s candidature came from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Apart from Mike Pompeo, Walker is endorsed by:
- Former US President Donald Trump
- Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
Georgia Senate Polls: Does a Trump endorsement guarantee an outright victory?
Yes, it is undeniable that the Trump standard is a HUGE boost to his candidature and name recognition seeing the tremendous popularity Trump enjoys amongst the Republican base.
BUT it is no guarantee of victory, here are a few examples
- In the Alabama Special Election of 2017 to the US Senate, Trump endorsed and even campaigned in the primary stage for Luther Strange. But that didn’t stop him from losing to Justice Roy Moore in the Republican Primary.
- Let’s take another example, in the North Carolina 11th Congressional District which was vacated by Mark Meadows to be Trump’s Chief of Staff. Trump endorsed Lynda Bennett, but she still ended up losing in the primaries to Madison Cawthorn, a mere 25-year-old Greenhorn!
- There are candidates who have lost in the primary or general elections despite receiving the endorsement of Trump, The latest one being his nominee in the Texas Special Election to the US House of Representatives.
Georgia Senate Race 2022 Polls: Demographics
As per the census 2020
Voting age Population of Georgia- 7.6 Million
Voters Demographics of Georgia-
|Hispanics or Latino Americans||5.0%|
Gender-Based Division of the Population of Georgia-
Age-based Distribution of the Population of Georgia-
|Age Bracket||Population Percentage|
|18-29 years old||22.1%|
|30-44 years old||24.7%|
|45-64 years old||33.5%|
|65+ years old||19.7%|
As per some estimates on voter registration, white voters are nearly 60% of the state’s registered voters and non-whites are 40%. if we go Gender-Based, Female accounts for 52.6 of accounts for Eligible Voting age Population, and Male are 47.4%. The age Bracket between 45-64 years old forms the Majority of the Eligible Voting age Population.
In Georgia, White Americans could spoil the chances of Warnock if maximum voters shift to Walkers. It is a matter of the fact that White Americans in Georgia have been in favor of Republicans. However, the polls have shown Warnock ahead of Walker but the gap between the two is not a big one with over 21% of the voters undecided.
Black Voters in Georgia are around 30% of the total population of Georgia. The Black Voters have mostly voted for the Democrats in the past.