4 Reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

4 Reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections
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2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections Insights, 4 reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

Glenn Youngkin is running in the general election for governor of Virginia in November 2021. The Incumbent Governor Ralph Northam from the Democrat party is unable to seek re-election due to term limits.

Despite President Biden winning the state in 2020, it may be difficult for Democrats to repeat the similar performance. Here are the reasons why Glenn Youngkin may win the upcoming 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections Insight: Youngkin has the MOMENTUM

Gap between McAuliffe and Youngkin in all the Polls

Gap between McAuliffe and Youngkin
October 2021
McAuliffe +2.2%
September 2021
McAuliffe +3.9%
August 2021
McAuliffe +5.2%

2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections Insight: Independents are shifting towards Glenn Youngkin

In Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe is in the lead as Election Day gets closer, but new polling suggests that his lead is narrowing.

The Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University released findings from a new poll that shows that since the center’s last poll says, the Democratic lead has shrunk and the races for governor and the lieutenant governor now stand within the survey’s margin of error.

Crowdwisdom360 analysis: Three Mistakes of Terry McAuliffe that could cost him the 2021 Virginia Governor race

Glenn Youngkin needs to win 60% of the Independent votes to win the election. The latest CBS YouGov poll gives Youngkin about 53% of the Independent vote.

According to the new poll update, Independent voters have shifted mainly in favor of the Republican candidates. Republican voters are more enthusiastic to vote around 61% and Democrats at 55%.

Former Governor Terry McAuliffe holds a small lead versys Republican Glenn Youngkin at 49% to 45%. In the August poll, McAuliffe had a nine-point lead at 50% compared to Youngkin’s 41%.

Independent voters have mainly shifted to Youngkin as he gained 11 points since the August poll.

Youngkin has huge support from whites, male voters, and those from the South and Southwest regions of the state.

McAuliffe’s support is more among women, Black voters and voters from age 44 and the younger generation as well as voters in the Northern Virginia region. He has also gained slightly from self-identified Republicans.

3 Reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections Insight: Negative impact of Biden’s approval ratings

In the closing weeks of the race, McAuliffe and Virginia Democrats have faced headwinds from Biden’s stalled infrastructure and reconciliation package in the Congress, and his Crash in approval ratings

The latest poll from Emerson College/Nexstar Media showed a 48% disapproval rating for the president in Virginia and a 1% lead for McAuliffe.

In September, McAuliffe pressed Congressional Democrats to “stop posturing” and pass the infrastructure bill. During the last debate, he said the $3.5 trillion figure for the reconciliation bill was too high. 

At a virtual event, McAuliffe said, “Currently we are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington as the president remains unpopular today in Virginia.”

Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said President Biden’s ability to sell his agenda will be “significantly deteriorated” if Republicans win the governorship in Virginia. 

He added,

“If a Biden-like message offered by McAuliffe doesn’t succeed in purple Virginia, a lot of Democrats around the country will wonder if it makes more sense to chart a more independent course,”.

While Democrats had won many elections in Virginia before, Biden won the state by 10 points. 

Farnsworth enthusiastically said, “The Bigger issue for Democrats is Trump is an ex-president and was a very useful foil for the party to run against in Virginia over the last several elections, and now they may very well miss him now that he’s gone,”

Kidd added that Youngkin has still been “flirtatious” with issues that sustain the Donald Trump base of the party, such as doubts about the poll process and “critical race theory.” Youngkin also said he’d support Trump in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee.

2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections Insight: Glenn Youngkin is better funded

In Virginia as a gubernatorial race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and businessman Republican Glenn Youngkin is getting tougher. As per the current reports, Youngkin raised nearly $4 million more than McAulliffe with a race-leading total of $35.2.

The former Democratic governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe was once seen as the favorite in the 2021 gubernatorial race. In McAuliffe’s last quarter in office in 2017, as per the Morning Consult survey, he had a 47% approval rating which landed him with a net 15% approval.

Since the start of the campaigns, Youngkin has brought in $35.2 million while McAuliffe has raised $31.8 million The latest report period covered on July 1 through August 31. The Republican businessman raised nearly half ($15.7 million) of his contributions and loans in this time period and spent $12.3 million. However, a hefty chunk of Youngkin’s funds has come from loans he’s made to his campaign.

Youngkin reported $4.5 million in loans between July and the end of August, and in total, he has loaned his campaign $16.5 million. Additionally, there have been several in-kind donations (totaling $212,781) from Youngkin and co.”, as per the LLC that was registered in Virginia in August 2020.

While Youngkin is currently winning the money race, McAuliffe has nearly doubled his amount of cash in the bank.

Youngkin’s demonstrated ability to lend his campaign millions of dollars could make this cash deficit moot as the election draws closer.

Both Youngkin and McAuliffe will release their next financial disclosures on October 15 and will include financial data from September 1 through September 30.

McAuliffe may still win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections but it is likely to be much closer than his 2013 win when he won by a tiny 2.5% margin

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