New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Hassan Comfortable as a Dems Candidate, GOP Primary Race Tightens

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Hassan Comfortable as a Dems Candidate, GOP Primary Race Tightens
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New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Maggie Hassan is well placed to win Democratic Primary

For GOP Primary, Don Bolduc and Chuck Morse are in a tight race
May 12th

The election to elect New Hampshire’s next Senator will be held on November 8, 2022. The seat is currently held by a Democrat, Maggie Hassan, who has announced that she is running for a second term. She has been elected in 3 state-wide elections, twice for governor and then once for Senate.

Her race in 2016 was the closest race of that cycle. She defeated Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte by just 0.14 points or 1,017 votes. Democrats currently hold a majority in the Senate due to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking capabilities.

Democrats have caught a lucky break in this election as Ayotte, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown and the popular incumbent GOP governor of the state have all declined to run.

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Candidates in the Primaries

Here are the candidates running in the primary:

Republican Primary

  • Gerard Beloin, roofing contractor and perennial candidate
  • Donald C. Bolduc, former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020
  • Chuck Morse, President of the New Hampshire Senate (2013-2018, 2020-present) and former Acting Governor of New Hampshire (2017) 
  • Tejasinha Sivalingam, landlord and candidate for state representative in 2018 and 2020
  • Kevin Smith, Town Manager of Londonderry and also candidate for the 2012 New Hampshire governor race

Republican Primary Polls: No polls have been conducted for the Republican Primary election. However, a close fight can be expected between three major candidates, Donald Bolduc, Gerrard Beloin, and Chuck Morse.

Let us see how these candidates have fared in terms of Google Trend Data for Last 7 Days

Chuck Morse
Kevin Smith
Donald Bolduc
May 12th
20%
50%
30%
May 11th
20%
50%
30%
May 3rd
9%
63%
27%
April 27th
14%
71%
14%
April 25th
12%
62%
25%

In terms of Google Search trends for the last 7 Days, Kevin Smith is leading among the Republican

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Social Media Sentiments

Chuck Morse
Kevin Smith
Donald Bolduc
May 11th
-3%
-9%
May 3rd
-47%
April 27th
-9%
-28%
April 25th
+3%

Democratic Primary

Maggie Hassan, incumbent U.S. Senator and former governor of New Hampshire (2013–2017)

Democratic Party Primary Election Polls: The Dems’ field is not much crowded as that of the GOP. Maggie Hassan, the incumbent will be running for her re-nomination and Tom Alciere has challenged her for the Primary election. However, no polls have been conducted on the Democrats’ end too.

Let us see how these candidates have fared in terms of Google Trend Data for the Last 7 Days

Despite Tom Alciere being the only challenger of Maggie Hassan, there has been no such mention of Tom in terms of Google search trends. Maggie Hassan solely dominates the search trend as of now.

Tom Alciere
Maggie Hassan
May 12th
100%
May 11th
100%
April 27th
100%
April 25th
100%

Primary Election Polls Conclusion: New Hampshire has seen a dearth of primary polling. Zero polls have been conducted for both sides.

This points to a lack of competitiveness in both primaries.

As an incumbent, Hassan is almost safe in her primary despite facing a challenger. The GOP primary had seen a lot of fluidity in the past but with many prominent candidates rejecting the chance to challenge Hassan, the field is now clear and Bolduc is an outright favorite in his primary as he racks up the endorsements of prominent Republicans.

Trump endorsed Bolduc in his failed 2020 senate run against Shaheen, New Hampshire’s other Democratic Senator, so it’s possible he does the same here eventually.

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: General Election Polls

The election this year will not be as close, but it should still be competitive — prognosticators like RCP rate the race as a “toss-up” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball and, Cook Political Report rate it “Lean Democrat”, indicating that Hasan is slightly favored, but the Republican candidate could win.

There have been 2 polls conducted that test Hassan in head-2-head matchups against both Bolduc and Morse. Both show Hassan with a large lead against Morse but a smaller lead against Bolduc.

Maggie Hassan vs Don Bolduc

Poll source
Date(s)
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Don
Bolduc (R)
Average
April
45%
41%
April 18, 2022
47%
46%
April 8, 2022
45%
40%
March 24, 2022
44%
39%

Read: Best Pollsters Biden Approval Rating: Biden Improving a little but Risks remain

Maggie Hassan vs Chuck Morse

Poll source Date(s) Maggie
Hassan (D)
Chuck
Morse (R)
Average April 43% 41%
University of New Hampshire April 14-18, 2022 44% 47%
Philips Academy April 4 -8, 2022 43% 40%
Saint Anslem College March 23-24, 2022 43% 36%

Maggie Hassan vs Kevin Smith

Dates
Maggie Hassan
Kevin Smith
Average
April
43%
34%
April 14-18
45%
44%
March 23-24
44%
34%
January 11-12
42%
24%
  1. Maggie Hassan Leads over Republican Kevin Smith by 9 points.
  2. The latest survey from the University of New Hampshire Favors Maggie Hassan over Kevin Smith by 1 point.

Google Trends for the Last 7 Days

Maggie Hassan
Chuck Morse
Don Bolduc
May 12th
75%
8%
16%
May 11th
70%
11%
17%
April 27th
64%
14%
21%
April 25th
69%
7%
23%

In terms of Google Search trends for the last 7 Days, Maggie Hassan is miles ahead meanwhile, and Chuck Morse and Donald Bolduc are equally placed behind.

New Hampshire Senate 2022 Polls: Last Elections

In the last election that was held in 2016, Maggie Hassan contested against Republican Ayotte Kelly who was an incumbent running for the second term. Ayotte lost the election by very few votes.

In the Senate election, the contest between Ayotte and Maggie was very close. Maggie’s vote share was 47.98% and she won by 354,649 votes.

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Latest News

  1. Democrats see leaked Supreme Court ruling as potential game changer
  2. Sen. Maggie Hassan: If Republican politicians ‘take away’ abortion rights, ‘what other rights are next?’
  3. How Democrats Want to Put Republicans on the Defensive on Abortion
  4. Keller @ Large: Push for gas tax holiday takes toll on partisan unity
  5. What’s In That Abortion Bill Hassan, Shaheen Are Backing?
  6. These 10 senators are most vulnerable six months from Election Day
  7. Hassan’s First TV Ad Targets Biden, Fellow Dems Over Gas Prices
  8. American Bridge: GOP to push hardline federal abortion ban

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Latest Videos

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Latest Tweets

Maggie Hassan on Twitter: “Let’s be clear: A woman has the right to make her own health care decisions and to chart her own future. Today’s vote is about protecting a woman’s fundamental freedom. pic.twitter.com/d0JLZ7QFeM / Twitter”

Let’s be clear: A woman has the right to make her own health care decisions and to chart her own future. Today’s vote is about protecting a woman’s fundamental freedom. pic.twitter.com/d0JLZ7QFeM

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls: Racial Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census Figures, the voting age demographics of the state are as follows:

Demographics
Proportion
White American
88.9%
Black American
1.9%
Hispanic American
3.6%
Asian American
3%
Native American
1.7%
Others
0.1%

New Hampshire is one of the whitest states in the country and had one of the larger swings in 2020 compared to 2016. In 2016, it was the closest state in the country by raw vote total as Clinton won by 0.3%.

However, Biden did 7 points better powered by impressive margins with White college-educated voters in the southeast of the state, which are considered part of the Boston Metro Area. The demographics of the state do favor Democrats, as it is irreligious, heavily urbanized and one of the most college-educated states in the country.

However, it remains politically quirky as its voter tend to split their tickets a lot. While Biden won the state in 2020, Republicans won full control of the state legislature, wresting it from Democratic control after they won it during their 2018 wave, powered by Governor Sununu’s popularity. Democrats will be hoping to avoid a surprising result like this again.

New Hampshire Senate Race 2022 Polls

Read: New Hampshire Governor Race 2022 Polls

 

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