Latest NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Betting markets favor Adams, Google Search trends are neck to neck

Latest NYC Mayoral Polls 2021:  Betting markets favor Adams, Google Search trends are neck to neck
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While no NYC Mayoral Polls 2021 have been released yet, Prediction market data suggests Eric Adams is likely to be the next mayor of New York. Google Search data indicates Sliwa is picking up momentum

smarkets, google trends

The city of New York is set to elect a new mayor on 2nd of November 2021. Former Police Captain Eric Adams is the candidate for the Democrats while Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, a nonprofit organization of unarmed crime prevention is the Republican candidate for the November 2nd NYC Mayoral election.

On 22nd June the primaries for the NYC Mayoral election were held. Brooklyn Borough President and former police officer Eric Adams won the Democratic Primary election while the Republican primary was won by Guardian Angels founder and Never Trump Republican Curtis Sliwa.

They are the major candidates in this multi-party election. Curtis Sliwa is also running on the Independence Party Ticket

new york city political map manhattan drawing csp79545298
The Dark Yellow regions of the map are the 5 suburbs of New York City


Registered Democrats currently outnumber registered Republicans in New York City by more than six to one, and there are twice as many registered independents as Republicans there. Democratic nominee Eric Adams is regarded as the overwhelming favorite to prevail in the general election.

NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Betting and Prediction markets

Eric Adams
Curtis Sliwa
Predicted Winner
97%
2%
Eric Adams

NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Demographics

As per the 2020 Census, New York City’s population surged by more than 600,000 over the past decade, to a record high of 8.8 million people.
As per the 2018 American Community Survey:-

Demographic
Proportion of Population
White American
42.73%
Black American
24.31%
Asian American
14.09%
Native American, Hawaiin and Pacific Islander
0.5%
Others
14.75%
Two or more races
3.63%

The Hispanic/Latino proportion of the population is around 29.1%

 The Jewish community of the city is approximately 13 percent of the population, making the Jewish community in New York City, not just the largest in the USA but also the largest community outside Israel.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans almost 6 to 1 in the city.
Except for Staten Island, every other borough in the city is reliably Democrat-dominated.


NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Google Search, 20th Sept

Two weeks ago, on Google search, Eric Adams was leading Curtis Sliwa by 53% to 47%. In the week of 6th Sep to 13th Sep, Adams is ahead of Sliwa and was leading 51% to 49%

As you can see, Curtis Sliwa and eric Adams have been toe to toe the last 7 days on Google Search.

Curtis Sliwa is possibly for the first time slightly ahead of Eric Adams

Eric Adams: 47% Curtis Sliwa: 53%

new york

NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Latest News ,20th Sept

20th September
“I AM THE FACE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY”: ERIC ADAMS AND THE HOPES OF RADICAL CENTRISM

NYC mayoral nominee Eric Adams changes tax returns again over his official residency: report

Man Killed, 11-Year-Old And 2 Others Hurt In Shooting At Bronx Barbecue

Eric Adams’ Townhouse Trouble: Tax Filing ‘Mistake’ and Blown-Off Buildings Inspector

Eric Adams says AOC’s ‘tax the rich’ dress is the wrong message


19th September
NYPost board: Eric Adams talking nice on business and tough on crime

18th September
NYC mayoral candidate Eric Adams distances himself from an ally, calls for ‘reset’ from de Blasio’s governance

Eric Adams campaign rips Curtis Sliwa’s Spanish-language ads as ‘disingenuous’

‘No one wants to do business in the city’: Adams on de Blasio’s NYC


NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Latest Tweets,19th Sept

Originally tweeted by Eric Adams (@ericadamsfornyc) on September 19, 2021.

“Eric Adams is committed to improving the lives of working-class New Yorkers and delivering for Black and brown communities… I endorse Eric for mayor and encourage all New Yorkers to vote for Eric in the upcoming general election.”
 
Thank you, Assemblymember @KhaleelAnderson!

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Originally tweeted by Curtis Sliwa for NYC Mayor (@CurtisSliwa) on September 19, 2021.

It was great meeting Zack last night.

He knows that we need to restore public safety to NYC and fully re-open our businesses so all our young adults can enjoy the best our City has to offer again!

Let’s bring our City back!

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Originally tweeted by Eric Adams (@ericadamsfornyc) on September 18, 2021.

The Cement & Concrete Workers District Council’s 3,000 members are making our City stronger each and every day, and I’m so proud to have earned their support in my campaign for Mayor.
 
Thank you, CCW — let’s get to work! 💪🏿

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Originally tweeted by Curtis Sliwa for NYC Mayor (@CurtisSliwa) on September 18, 2021.

I spend my evenings talking to residents at NYCHA while my opponent gets wined, dined & pocket lined in private clubs. NYC needs someone who listens to their needs & cares enough to be there. Sadly my opponent doesn’t think these real New Yorkers are worth his time

#NYC #NYCHA

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NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Latest Videos ,20th Sept

New York City mayoral nominee Eric Adams’ message to Wall Street

Originally tweeted by Curtis Sliwa for NYC Mayor (@CurtisSliwa) on September 18, 2021.

Everyone in NYC has a story…the key is to take the time to listen. Every voice matters, every struggle matter, every New Yorker matters

Vote #CurtisSliwa for #NYC Mayor on Nov 2nd


TV Commercial: SLIWA Compassionate Solutions


NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: How the city has voted in previous Elections

New York City is known to be a long-time Democratic Bastion as we have mentioned above, the last time a Republican Presidential Candidate won a Majority in the 5 boroughs of the city was in 1920.
But the city was known for split voting on the state and local level it was not averse to voting for Republican Mayors or State/national representatives who were more leftwing compared to their national counterparts, but even this has changed today

In the last few years, the city has become more left-wing over time and more ‘Blue’ on the National level and on the mayoral level too, not to mention it too is stuck in the grip of partisan politics. There is only 1 Republican in the US House of Reps. from the City and she won from a district based in Staten Island.

Today it is almost impossible for someone like Rudy Giuliani or Michael Bloomberg who won on a Republican ticket multiple times between 1994 to 2009 to win as a Republican or even an Independent if they ran today for mayor.

New york in Mayoral Elections

Year
Winning Candidate
Winner’s Voteshare
Runner -up
Runner-Up’s Voteshare
2017
Bill De Blasio
[Democrat, Working Families]
66.2%
Nicole Malliotakis
[Republican, Conservative]
27.6%
2013
Bill De Blasio
[Democrat, Working Families]
73.2%
Joe Lhota
[Republican, Conservative]
24.3%
2009
Michael Bloomberg
[Republican, Independence]
50.7%
Bill Thompson
[Democrat, Working Families]
46.3%
2005
Michael Bloomberg
[Republican,Liberal, Independence]
58.4%
Fernando Ferrer
[Democratic]
39.0%
2001
Michael Bloomberg
[Republican, Independence]
50.3%
Mark J Green
[Democrat, Working Families]
47.9%
1997
Rudy Giuliani
[Republican, Liberal]
57.7%
Ruth Messinger
[Democrat]
40.5%

New York in Presidential Elections

Year
Democratic Voteshare
Republican Voteshare
2020
76.19%
22.70%
2016
79.95%
17.04%
2012
81.19%
17.78%
2008
79.29%
20.06%
2004
74.99%
24.10%

See the figures between 2001 and 2009 in both the tables, compare the Republican voteshare in that decade to the Republican Voteshare in the next decade(2010-2020)

NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Endorsements

The current New York city mayor De Blasio officially endorsed Eric Adams in an event on Monday

Other endorsements touted by Eric Adams include US Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer, US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Congressman Gregory Meeks, Congresswoman Grace Meng, Congressman Jerrold Nadler, NYC Council speaker Corey Johnson and NYC Assembly speaker Carl Heastie

Curtis Sliwa on the other hand has the endorsements of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis

NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Results of the Democratic Primaries

Eric Adams: 30.8%, (Ranked Choice method: 50.4%)

Maya Wiley: 21.3%

Kathryn Garcia: 19.6%, (Ranked Choice method: 49.6%)

Andrew Yang: 12.2%

NYC Mayoral Polls 2021: Results of the Republican Primaries

Curtis Sliwa: 71.1%

Fernando Mateo: 28.9%

Detailed profile of Curtis Sliwa

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