Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Betsy Johnson loses Momentum. Drazan Leads Kotek

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022(All Polls were paid by Republicans): Betsy Johnson: 21.1%, Tina Kotek: 32.1%, Drazan: 33.9%,

Google Search Share (7 Days Average): Betsy Johnson: 32%, Tina Kotek: 32%, Drazan: 37%.

Social Media Sentiment: Drazan: -14.6%, Tina Kotek: -40.4%, Betsy Johnson: -29.9%.

CrowdwisdomLIVE Oregon Governor Race Predictions: Betsy Johnson is unlikely to win more than 20% of the vote. Drazan likely to beat Tina Token by a small margin

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The Oregon Governor election will be held on November 8th, 2022 to elect a new governor of Oregon. Incumbent Kate Brown will not be contesting re-elections due to two terms limit. Oregon has been a Blue state with the state electing a Republican Governor last in the year 1979. A three-way fight has made the election extremely unpredictable.

A lack of unbiased polling makes this election even more unpredictable. However, CrowdwisdomLIVE relies on other data sources to make accurate predictions.

Oregon Governor Race Predictions Summary

	Who is leading?	Trend
Polls (All GOP Polls)	Too Close to Call	Too Close to Call
Google Search	Drazan	Drazan
Social Media Sentiment	Drazan	Drazan

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

• Drazan has had a great 3-4 day period as she picks momentum. Tina Kotek is a close second while Betsy Johnson appears to be losing momentum.
• Democrat Tina Kotek is in trouble because
  • Incumbent Governor Kate Brown (D) has an approval rating of 41%, the lowest in the United States.
  • Tina Kotek on the other hand has a 27.8% favorable rating while Christine Drazan has a 29.7% favorable rating. Tina Kotek’s unfavorable ratings stand at 45.8% while Christie Drazan’s unfavorable ratings are 25.3%.
  • The cost of Living in Oregon is also hurting Tina Kotek. Only 30% believe that the state is moving in the right direction. Oregon has had a huge surge in crime* (see table below) which has now become an important issue for voters. Homelessness and Healthcare in 3rd on the list which is followed by Public education. The abortion issue is 5th on the list which may be a concern for Tina Kotek as the Democratic Party is highly banking on the abortion issue.
  • Just 34% of the registered voters are registered as Democrats, and 40% of the voters are unaffiliated or Independent.
    • Tina Kotek will have to win a large majority of Democrat voters many of who are likely to vote for Betsy Johnson who was a Democrat and is now running as an Independent. She will also have to win 25-30% of the Unaffiliated/ Independent vote to win the election.
    • Christine Drazan on the other hand will have to carry most of the Republican vote (25%) and about 25-30% of the unaffiliated vote. It will be tougher for Tina Kotek given her party has been in power for 40 years in Oregon
• Here is why Drazan could Win
  • A major factor that favors Christine Drazan is the unpopularity of the Democrat Governor. The incumbent governor is the most unpopular Governor in the United States. This factor may have a negative influence on the chances of Democrat Tina Kotek.
  • As of August 2022, the total number of registered Democrat Voters in Oregon is 1,011,328 while the Republican is 729,535. Oregon has massive non-affiliated voters, 1,017,662. Looking at the current Governor’s approval rating, the non-affiliated voters may spoil the chances of Tina Kotek and for a change prefer a Republican as a Governor.

Oregon’s performance under Kate Brown

*Oregon has one of the lowest Homicide mortality rates in the country

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Latest Polls

Average	September 25th
Tina Kotek	32.1%
Christine Drazan	33.9%
Betsy Johnson	21.1%
Clout Research (R)	September 6th
Tina Kotek	32%
Christine Drazan	33%
Betsy Johnson	21%
Big Penguin Polling (R)	August 16th
Tina Kotek	33.4%
Christine Drazan	36.8%
Betsy Johnson	18.3%

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Google Search, Kotek vs Drazan vs Johnson

	Last 7 Days
Tina Kotek	32%
Christine Drazan	37%
Betsy Johnson	32%
	Last 30 days
Tina Kotek	28%
Christine Drazan	33%
Betsy Johnson	34%

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Social Media Net Sentiment

	September 25th
Kotek	–40.4%
Drazan	–14.6%
Johnson	-29.9%
	August 30th
Kotek	-5.1%
Drazan	-33.1%
Betsy Johnson	-29.1%

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Latest Video

Oregon Governor Race Polls 2022: Latest Tweets

Enough with the false attacks. Our kids are struggling, and you want to cut Student Success funding for career technical education and mental health counselors in schools. That's 100% the wrong direction. #orpol https://t.co/aevUJXGUyw

— Tina Kotek (@TinaKotek) September 22, 2022

Oregon Governor Polls: Latest News

1. Oregon students falling behind in schools, GOP gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan wants change
2. Politics permeate Pendleton Round-Up as Oregon governor’s race heats up
3. Oregon governor candidates weigh in on death penalty
4. Here are the biggest donors in the race for Oregon governor

Read

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Oregon Governor Election: Cash in hand

• Tina Kotek: $1.75 Million
• Christine Drazan: $1.47 Million
• Betsy Johnson: $4.12 Million

Oregon Governor Elections: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

The state has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. The last 3 Governor elections in Oregon were held in the year 2018, 2016 (Special election), and 2014. In the three elections, a Democrat became the Governor with Kate Brown being elected twice and John Kitzhaber.

Here are the details for the last 3 Governor elections in Oregon:

2018 Oregon Governor Race: The 2018 Oregon Governor Race was held on November 6, 2018. The incumbent Governor Kate Brown ran for re-election for her 2nd term. In her first term, she had served only for 2 years as she was elected Governor after the special election.

As an incumbent, she had a huge advantage going into the Primary election. She won the primary election convincingly as she got 81.9% of the total votes. Her opponent in the General election was Knute Buehler who underwent a close primary election.

The pollsters predicting the 2018 Oregon Governor election predicted the return of Kate Brown as the Governor however, they also predicted the election to be a close one. As per the polls, Kate Brown had 2-5% advantage over her GOP rival, Knute Buehler.

The election result was in accordance with the polls. Kate Brown won the election. She polled 50.1% of the total votes while her opponent Knute Buehler got 43.7% of the total votes. Kate Brown after the election went on to become the 38th Governor of Oregon.

2016 Oregon Governor Race (Special Election): The 2016 Oregon Governor election took place to elect the Governor of Oregon who would occupy the Governor's office for 2 years as the then Governor John Kitzhaber resigned from the position as Governor of Oregon. Kate Brown who was then Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship after the resignation of John Kitzhaber.

The special election was held on November 8th, 2016. However, before the General election, the primary elections were held. Kate Brown polled over 80% of the total votes and went on to become the Democratic Party's nominee for the November 8th election. From the GOP field, William C. Pierce won the primary election.

The polls for the special election were completely one-sided as almost all the polls gave Kate Brown a massive edge over her opponent Budd Pierce. The polls gave a minimum 15% lead to Kate Brown. The final result was a victory for Kate Brown. She won the election by polling 50.6% of the total votes while her GOP opponent got 43.5% vote share. Kate Won the election by around 7 points.

2014 Oregon Governor Election: In 2014 Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber was running to be elected as the Governor of Oregon for the 4th time. He was up against the GOP nominee Dennis Richardson. The 2014 Oregon Governor election took place on November 4th, 2014. The election took place concurrently with other elections in Oregon and across the United States.

The incumbent governor, John Kitzhaber did not face much of a challenge in the Primary election. He won the primary election by securing over 80% vote share. Dennis Richardson also had an easy win in the GOP Primary race. Dennis Richardson got 65.86% of the total votes cast in the GOP Primary election for the post of Oregon's Governor.

In the general election, John Kitzhaber had an advantage from the very beginning. The polls gave him around an 8-10% lead. The election result was, however, slightly closer than predicted by the polling firm. John Kitzhaber got 49.9% of the total votes while Dennis Richardson polled 44.1% vote share. John Kitzhaber won the election by 6% and went on to become the 37th Governor of Oregon.

Oregon Governor Polls: Demographics

As per the United State census, the total population of Oregon was 4,237,256 by 2020, and compared to the last census conducted in 2010 it has increased up to 10.17%.

According to the 2020 census, 13% of Oregon's population is of Hispanic or Latino origin. In Oregon, the Mexican population is up to 10%, Puerto Rican 0.3%, and Cuban 0.1%. Portland is Oregon's most diverse area while there are high concentrations of Mexican-Americans in Jefferson and Malheur counties.

The majority of the population is situated in Portland as it is located in the metro area. Oregon ranks 12th among the Asian American population and 10th among the Native American population. Oregon has one of the lowest populations of African American origin. This makes Oregon the 39th most densely populated state.

As per 2004 data, Oregon's foreign-born population exceeds 300,000 and accounts for almost 9% of the total population.

There are five major ancestries living in Oregon majorly white: German with 19%, Irish with 11%, English with 11%, American with 5%, and Norwegian with 3%.

In Oregon median age of the population is 39 years of age. The ratio of the female population is 50% and males with 49% as per the current data.

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