PA Governor Polls 2022 and Prediction

PA Governor Polls 2022 and Prediction

PA Governor Polls 2022: In the average of the last 3 Pennsylvania Governor Race Polls, Shapiro leads by 10% while in the latest PA Governor Race Poll, Mastriano trails by 15%

PA Governor Polls 2022 (Average): Josh Shapiro 50%, Doug Mastriano 40%.
Latest Pennsylvania Governor Polls: Josh Shapiro 52%, Doug Mastriano 37%.

Google Search Share: Josh Shapiro 44%, Doug Mastriano 56%.
Social Media Net Sentiment: Josh Shapiro -47.1%, Doug Mastriano -60.6%.

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Shapiro to win by 3% margin.

When is the Pennsylvania Governor Race?

The 2022 Governor Election in Pennsylvania is set to take place on November 8th, 2022. The contest is between Josh Shapiro, Attorney General of Pennsylvania, and Trump-endorsed state senator Doug Mastriano.

PA Governor Race 2022 Predictions Table

Who is Leading?Trending in Favor of
PollsJosh ShapiroShapiro
Social Media SentimentJosh ShapiroShapiro
Google SearchDoug MastrianoMastriano

Tide

YouTube video

PA Governor Polls: Who Will Win Pennsylvania Governor Race?

Polls: Polls have repeatedly given Josh Shapiro an advantage over Doug Mastriano. In the latest poll, Shapiro has a 2% lead while in the average of the last 3 polls Shapiro is leading by 11%.

Google Search Volume: Search Volume for Doug Mastriano has been higher since the very beginning but there has been an increase in the search volume of Josh Shapiro as we move closer to the election.

Social Media Sentiment: The social media sentiment for Josh Shapiro is positive while Mastriano has had negative sentiment since the very beginning.

Who will Win Pennsylvania Governor Race: Josh Shapiro is in a better position to win the upcoming PA Governor race.

Pennsylvania Governor Race Polls: Observations and Insights

Much of the analysis is based on the Emerson poll which is reporting a close contest between Shapiro and Mastriano. Interestingly, Emerson had overstated Biden’s support in Pennsylvania in 2020.

  1. Excluding the Outlier Echelon Poll, Mastriano has cut Shapiro’s lead of nearly 10 points to just 7 points in 1 month
    • He leads Shapiro by 15 points amongst Independent voters
    • Mastriano also leads amongst those in the age band 35-64 many of who are concerned by economic issues. The economy is the number 1 issue in Pennsylvania now.
  2. Doug Mastriano appears to be outperforming Scott Wagner who was the GOP candidate in 2018. However, he is underperforming Donald Trump (2020). Donald Trump lost Pennsylvania by just 1% in 2020.
  3. Shapiro has an 11-point lead amongst women which could perhaps increase to 15 points. Mastriano on the other hand leads by just 5 points amongst men which could increase to 8 points. This will not be enough for Mastriano to catch up with Shapiro
  4. As things stand today, it is an advantage for Shapiro but he is unlikely to win by 7 points.

PA Governor Race Polls 2022: Doug Mastriano vs Josh Shapiro

Average of PollsSeptember 27th
Josh Shapiro (D)50%
Doug Mastriano (R)40%
Insider AdvantageSeptember 24th
Josh Shapiro (D)52%
Doug Mastriano (R)37%
Marist CollegeSeptember 22th
Josh Shapiro (D)54%
Doug Mastriano (R)42%
The Philips AcademySeptember 19th
Josh Shapiro (D)46%
Doug Mastriano (R)43%
2020 PollsSeptember 30th, 2020
Joe Biden (D)50%
Donald Trump (R)44%
2018 PollsSeptember 30th, 2018
Tom Wolf (D)53%
Scott Wagner (R)35%

The Big Question is, has Roe vs Wade fundamentally changed the tone of this election?

Shapiro (D)Mastriano (R)
3 Polls BEFORE Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS47.0%43.7%
3 Polls AFTER Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS50.3%38.7%
Change after Roe vs Wade was overturned+3.3%-5.0%

PA Governor Polls: Recent Gubernatorial Elections Statistics

PA Governor Race Polls: Google Search Volume Share

Last 7 Days
Josh Shapiro (D)46%
Doug Mastriano (R)54%
Last 30 Days
Josh Shapiro41%
Doug Mastriano59%

PA Governor Polls: Major Issues of Voters

The Democrat Tom Wolf is the incumbent Governor of Pennsylvania. The major issue which will play an important role in deciding the next Governor of Pennsylvania is:

Among the Democrats, 44% believe that the state is heading in the right direction while 55% believe that the state is heading in the wrong direction. 95% of the Republicans are of the opinion that the state is heading in the wrong direction while only 5% are happy with the current state.

Among the independents, 77% of the respondents are unhappy with the working of the current Democratic Governor. 23% agree with the working of the current Governor.

PA Governor Polls: Social Media Sentiment, Last 7 Days

September 27th
Shapiro-47.1%
Mastriano-60.6%

PA Governor Race 2022: Latest Videos

YouTube video

PA Governor Race 2022: Latest Tweets

PA Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest News

No Latest News For the Upcoming PA Governor Race

PA Governor Polls: Support Across Demographics

Josh Shapiro

All Likely Voters: Josh Shapiro is leading Doug Mastriano when it comes to all likely voters. Josh Shapiro has the support of 49% of all likely voters.

Voters 50+: Around 48% of the voters in age over 50 are likely to support Josh Shapiro while 47% of the voters in age over 50 years are unlikely to support, Josh Shapiro.

Independents: Josh Shapiro may be able to garner the support of only 34% of the independent voters.

Women: Women voters are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, Josh Shapiro. 55% of the women voters may vote for Josh Shapiro.

Men: Among the men voters Josh Shapiro is not very acceptable. He may get the support to of around 43% of the men voters.

Black Voters: Black Voters seem to be firmly standing behind Josh Shapiro. 78% of the Black voters are likely to vote for Josh Shapiro. Pennsylvania has around 11% black population.

Doug Mastriano

All Likely Voters: Josh Shapiro is leading Doug Mastriano when it comes to all likely voters. Doug Mastriano is trailing Shapiro by 3% when it comes to all likely voters.

Voters 50+: Doug Mastriano is again trailing Shapiro among the voters over 50 years of age. Around 48% of the voters in age over 50 are likely to support Josh Shapiro while 47% of the voters in this age group are likely to support Doug Mastriano.

Independents: Independents are more likely to vote for Doug Mastriano than Josh Shapiro. 52% of the independent voters are more likely to vote for Doug Mastriano.

Women: Women voters are more likely to lean towards Josh Shapiro than Doug Mastriano. Doug Mastriano may get the support of only 41% of the women voters.

Men: Among the men voters Doug Mastriano is more likely acceptable. He may get the support of around 51% of the men voters.

Black Voters: Black Voters seem to be firmly standing behind Josh Shapiro. 78% of the Black voters are like to vote for Shapiro while only 17% may back Doug Mastriano.

PA Governor Race Polls: Fundraising Details

Josh Shapiro

The Democratic Candidate for the upcoming Pennsylvania Governor Race, Josh Shapiro has been able to raise $20,528,555 in funds to finance his PA Governor Race campaign. His total expenditure as of now is $7,749,175. For more details about Josh Shapiro’s donation data.

Doug Mastriano

Doug Mastriano’s fundraising has not been as good as Josh Shapiro’s. As of now, Doug Mastriano has been able to raise $1,704,530 to finance his 2022 Pennsylvania Governor Race campaign. Talking about his expenditure, he has already spent $1,589,403 on his campaign.

However, apart from donations, candidates also use external funds for their campaign expenditures. Doug Mastriano’s expenditure in 2022 has been more than the funds he has collected.

PA Governor Polls: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

In the last five Governor election in Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party have been able to win the election 4 times and the Republican has won the election only once in Pennsylvania. In 2010, a Republican Tom Corbett became the Governor of Pennsylvania for the last time and since then a Democrat has been occupying the Office of the Governor of Pennsylvania.

The last 3 Governor elections in Pennsylvania were held in the year 2010, 2014, and 2018. Here are the details about the last 3 Governor elections in Pennsylvania:

PA Governor Polls: 2018 PA Governor Race: On November 6th, 2018, an election to elect the Governor of Pennsylvania was held. From the Democratic field was Tom Wolf seeking his re-election to a second term for Pennsylvania Governor. He was up against the GOP candidate, Scott Wagner.

The polls for the election predicted a complete one-sided result. Almost all the polls gave Tom Wolf over 10% lead over Scott Wagner. The result was as per the expectation. Tom Wolf won the election and he polled 57.8% vote share. Scott Wagner got 40.7% of the total votes.

PA Governor Polls: 2014 PA Governor Race: In 2014, Tom Wolf was running for the first time for the office of Governor of Pennsylvania. He was up against the incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett. The election was held on November 4th, 2014.

The polls for the election did not favor the incumbent. Almost all the polls gave Tom Wolf over 10% lead over the incumbent Governor Scott Wagner. The result was similar to the poll prediction. Tom Wolf polled 54.9% of the total votes and won the election by nearly 10%. Scott Wagner received 45.1% of the total votes.

PA Governor Polls: 2010 Pennsylvania Governor Race: After 2 consecutive terms of Democratic Governor, in 2010 the Republican party was finally able to win the state. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ed Rendell was term-limited and thus ineligible to seek re-election in 2010.

The Republican nominee Tom Corbett was up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Dan Onorato. The election was held on November 2, 2010.

The polls favored a win for the Republican candidate Tom Corbett with almost all the polls giving Tom Corbett over 50% vote share and a lead of a minimum of 10% over his Democratic Rival Dan Onorato. The result was similar to the polls. Tom Corbett polled 54.5% of the total votes. Dan Onorato on the other hand polled 45.5% of the total votes. Corbett won the election by 9% and went on to become the Governor of Pennsylvania.

PA Primary Results

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on May 17, 2022. Democratic Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro and Republican State Senator Doug Mastriano won their parties’ respective nominations.

PA Governor Race Polls: Democratic Primary Results

The Democratic Party’s primary election was uncontested. Josh Shapiro was declared the winner as he had no challenger.

PA Governor Race: GOP Primary Results

In the Republican field, the polls have shown Doug Mastriano leading since the very beginning. Doug Mastriano was endorsed by Donald Trump and his endorsement helped Doug Mastriano have an edge over his fellow Republican Party candidates.

The election result was almost one-sided. Doug Mastriano won the election as he polled over 20% vote share than his nearest rival, Lou Barletta.

Pennsylvania Governor Race Polls 2022: Racial Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census Figures, the population of the state is as follows:
White votes remain a large majority and it’s the same case in both parties’ primaries. Black voters remain a crucial voting bloc for Dems and they need to ensure Philadelphia turns out to be high. The 4 suburban “collar” counties around the city are also huge vote banks for Dems as they trend away from Trump’s GOP.

Montgomery and Delaware County are especially important. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and its metro area have been a bright spot for Democrats while they lose votes in white working-class areas in North-East Pennsylvania (NEPA) like Biden’s hometown of Scranton. South Central PA is an extremely vote-rich area and the counties of Cumbria, Northumberland, and Lebanon will be battlegrounds again. That area along with the rural counties remains a vote source for the GOP.

Read: Pennsylvania Senate Race 2022 Polls

PA Governor Race 2022 Polls

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