Pennsylvania Senate Race Polls 2022: Dr. Oz makes headway as Fetterman Loses Momentum

Pennsylvania Senate Race Polls 2022: John Fetterman: 45.3%, Mehmet Oz: 41.5%

Google Search Share (7 Days Average): John Fetterman: 75%, Mehmet Oz: 25%

Social Media Sentiment: Mehmet Oz: -25.6%, John Fetterman: -24.1%

CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Fetterman to win by at least 5% points

When is the Pennsylvania Senate Race?

The 2022 Senate Election in Pennsylvania is set to take place on November 8th. Trump-backed Mehmet Oz was declared the winner of the GOP Primary race after the recount. He is up against the Democratic candidate John Fetterman who had an easy win in the Democratic Party Primary.

Table of Contents

Pennsylvania Senate Race 2022 Predictions Table

	Who is Leading?	Who is Gaining?
*Polls*	*John Fetterman*	*Dr.Oz*
*Google Search Share*	*John Fetterman*	*Steady*
*Social Media Sentiment*	*John Fetterman*	*Fetterman*

Fetterman vs Oz Polls: Observations and Insights

The election is getting close in PA though John Fetterman is still likely to win in the upcoming PA Senate Race.
In the latest Emerson Poll, Fetterman appears to have lost 3% points versus the last poll in August. Dr. Oz lost 1% compared to August. Overall, the proportion of voters who are undecided has increased from 5% to 8%. Dangerously for Fetterman, many of these Undecided voters are Democrats as well. According to the Emerson Poll, 35% of African American voters have either decided to vote for Dr.Oz or have not made up their minds yet.
What changed from August to September? The impact of Fetterman’s stroke. The % of voters who are LESS LIKELY to vote for Fetterman increased from 22 to 27%. On the other hand, the impact of Dr.Oz’s New Jersey residence fell from 51% to 39% of voters
Fetterman leads Dr. Oz by 13% amongst women while trailing 5% amongst men (CBS Poll). The two candidates are tied among Independent voters. Dr. OZ has bridged the gap amongst Independent voters but is struggling to win moderate Republican voters. 56% of moderate voters in Pennsylvania mentioned abortion as a very important issue.
Dr. Oz is struggling to score well on Likeability. Just 15% of Dr. Oz voters are voting for him because they like him. 56% of those who are voting for Fetterman also like him.
Numerous Republican voters are yet to make up their minds. This is likely to help Dr. Oz to bridge the gap but not win him the election. The challenge is to win amongst Independent voters many of who are yet to make up their mind
In the meanwhile, John Fetterman has been reaching out to PA rural voters, something that many Democrats have generally avoided.

Pennsylvania Senate Polls 2022: Fetterman vs Oz Polls

Average of Polls	October 4th
*Dr. Oz (R)*	*41.5%*
*John Fetterman (D)*	*45.3%*

USA Today Suffolk University	September 30th
*Dr. Oz(R)*	*40%*
*John Fetterman(D)*	*46%*

Emerson College	September 26th
*Dr. Oz(R)*	*43%*
*John Fetterman(D)*	*45%*

Fox News	September 26th
*Dr. Oz(R)*	*41%*
*John Fetterman(D)*	*45%*

Franklin and Marshall	September 25th
*Dr. Oz(R)*	*42%*
*John Fetterman(D)*	*45%*

Average of Last 4 PA Senate Elections
*Republican*	*46.8%*
*Democrat*	*51.4%*

Fetterman vs Oz Polls: Impact of Roe vs Wade

The Big Question is, has Roe vs Wade fundamentally changed the tone of this election?

	Fetterman(D)	Dr. Oz(R)
3 Polls BEFORE* Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS*	*48.0%*	*41.7%*
3 Polls AFTER* Roe vs Wade was overturned by SCOTUS*	*49.3%*	*37.7%*
Change after Roe vs Wade was overturned	*+1.3%*	*-4.0%*

Follow the PA Governor Election here

Fetterman vs Oz Polls: Google Search

Last 7 Days

Dr. Oz: 25%
John Fetterman: 75%

Last 7 Days

Dr Oz: (-25.6%)
Fetterman: (-24.0)

Pennsylvania Senate Polls: Latest Videos

Oz vs Fetterman Polls: Latest News

Oz vs Fetterman Polls: Latest Tweets

It’s october 3rd. pic.twitter.com/o9vJlMFdHI
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) October 3, 2022

John Fetterman Polls: Fundraising Details

The Pennsylvania Senate Polls have predicted a win for the Democratic Party’s John Fetterman. In his quest to be elected as the Senator from Pennsylvania, John Fetterman has been able to raise nearly $26M to fund his campaign. Of the total funds raised, he has spent slightly over $20M and is now left with around $5.5M cash in hand. This data is updated on June 30th, 2022.

Mehmet Oz on the hand has been able to raise around $19M to fund his campaign. Of the total funds, he has already spent around $18M. As of June 30, 2022, Mehmet Oz has around $1.12 M cash in hand.

Pennsylvania Senate Polls: Recent elections

In 1962 Joseph S. Clark Jr. won the Class III Senate election as a Democratic Party candidate. It was the last time when a Democrat was elected as a Class III Senator from Pennsylvania. The Republicans have been at the helm of power when it comes to electing a Senator from Pennsylvania. The last 3 Pennsylvania Senate elections were held in the years 2016, 2010, and 2004. In all three elections, a GOP candidate was elected as a Senator. Here are the details of the last 3 Senate elections in Pennsylvania:

Pennsylvania Senate Polls: 2016 Election: The 2016 Pennsylvania Senate Race took place on November 8, 2016. Pat Toomey was running for his re-election for 2nd term. The primary election leading up to the General election was held on April 26, 2016. As an incumbent senator, Pat Toomey has no challenger in the Primary election and was nominated as a GOP candidate unopposed.

In the Democratic field, the fight was between three candidates, John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak. Katie McGinty won the Primary election and Joe Sestak was 2nd in the race.

For the General election between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty, almost all the polls predicted the election to have a wire finish with Katie McGinty having an edge.

However, the result of the election was different from the prediction. Pat Toomey won the election by a narrow margin. He polled 48.8% of the total votes while Katie McGinty polled 47.3% of the total votes.

Pennsylvania Senate Polls: 2010 Election Democratic Party’s Primary election. However, he was not lucky enough as he lost the Primary election to Joe Sestak who became the Democratic nominee for the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate election.

For the Republicans, the primary election was completely one-sided with Pat Toomey winning the primary election handsomely. He got over 80% of the total votes.

The 2010 Pennsylvania General election was held on November 2nd, 2010. The fight was between Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey. The polls for the election were completely divided. Of the last 4 polls, two predicted a win for Pat Toomey while the other two predicted a win for Joe Sestak. The election result was a close one. Pat Toomey won the election. He polled 51% of the total votes while Joe Sestak received 49% of the total votes.

PA Senate Race Polls: Primary Race Recap

Democratic Primary Results

John Fetterman registered a massive win in the Democratic Party’s primary election. He polled over 700K votes. His nearest rival Conor Lamb polled on around 336K votes.

Pennsylvania Senate Race Polls: Republican Primary Results

The GOP Primary Race ended up in court after David McCormick demanded the recount of the votes. The result was very close and despite the endorsement of Dr. Mehmet Oz by Donald Trump, he did not have an easy run in the election. The election went down the wire finish. Dr. Mehmet Oz won the election by less than 1000 votes. Mehmet Oz got 419,999 votes while David McCormick received 419,048 votes.

Pennsylvania Senate Race Polls: Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census Figures

*White American*	73.5%
*Black American*	10.5%
*Hispanic American*	8.1%
*Asian American*	3.9%
*Multi-racial*	3.5%
*Others*	0.5%

Pennsylvania continues to grow at a steady rate till the next census. Pennsylvania’s Hispanic Population grew around 82.6% from 2000 to 2010 which is one of the largest increases in any state. This happened due to immigration from Puerto Rico, South America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic and there is also a 60% Asian population located here. The Black and African American community has grown by 13%.

Currently in Pennsylvania, the majority of the population is represented by White Americans. They make up around 73.5% of the total population of Pennsylvania. Black Americans make up around 11% of the total population of Pennsylvania. Other races make up 15% of the population.

Read: Ohio Senate 2022 Preview