Virginia Governor Polls 2021: McAuliffe 49.3%, Youngkin 47.1%. Youngkin has the momentum but can he win?

Virginia Governor Polls 2021: McAuliffe 49.3%, Youngkin 47.1%. Youngkin has the momentum but can he win?
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The latest Virginia Governor Polls 2021 (October) show Terry McAuliffe at 49.3% is ahead of Glenn Youngkin at 47.1%

Average of recent 5 polls plus latest Google Search data, Oct 17th

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Background

After the 2020 US Presidential election, the first ideological proxy fight between the Centre-Left path of the Biden-led Democratic party and a Republican Party that is eager to hold on to Trump’s voter base and his additions to their ideology will be seen in the form of the Virginia Governor Race 2021.

Virginia Governor Race 2021 Date: November 2nd, 2021 [16 days ahead]

This page is updated twice a day with the latest polls, Google search trends, news, videos, Crowd’s wisdom and tweets from the campaign. We also provide analysis on a frequent basis.

Crowdwisdom360 Analysis: Glenn Youngkin has the momentum to win the election

In August, McAuliffe was ahead by 5.2% points, this has come down to 2.2% in October. This is is highly likely to continue to shift in favor of Youngkin until voting day giving him the edge in this election. The only way McAuliffe can win this is by driving a much higher than Normal Democratic turnout or coming up with a huge punch on Youngkin that will stem the losses amongst Independents.

McAuliffe’s deliberate focus on Trump is to push Democrat Turnout to levels that will help him scrape through. A strategy the Dems applied in the CA recall recently. The other weak area for the GOP is the Texas abortion law. Our observation was that mentions of the law mobilised voters better than most other issues.

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Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Virginia Governor Race Predictions

Method
Predicted Winner
Likely Margin
Polls
Too Close to Call
Low
Google Search
Too Close to Call
Low
Betting/ Prediction Platforms
Terry McAuliffe
Comfortable
Crowd’s Prediction
Terry McAuliffe (51.5%)
Low
Early Voting Trends
Glenn Youngkin
Low

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls, Oct 17th

Polls show Terry McAuliffe with a small advantage over Glenn Youngkin.

Polling Company
Dates of polling
Terry McAuliffe(D)
Glenn Youngkin
2017 prediction
Average
Oct 1st-Oct 13th
49.3%
47.1%
Final Result, Northam +8.9
Oct 11th-13th
47.5%
48.4%
Northam +1
Oct 10th-13th
51%
46%
Northam +5
Oct 4th-11th
50%
47%
Not Polled
CNU Poll
Sept 27th -Oct 6th
49%
45%
Northam+6
Oct 1st-3rd
49%
49%
Northam +3

Fox News Poll – 2021 vs 2017

In 2017, Northam won by 8.9% of the vote. We compare the last Fox Poll of 2017 with the latest Fox Poll. Note that Fox had under-estimated Northam by 4% points in 2017

McAuliffe appears to have made gains amongst younger men while Youngkin appears to have made gains amongst Women

Polls have had a mixed record in Virginia.

  • In 2013, Polls over-estimated McAuliffe support by 3.5% [Dems Bias]
  • In 2016, Clinton vs Trump Polls were precise in predicting the result
  • In 2017, Polls under-estimated support for Ralph Northam by 4.6% points [GOP Bias]
  • In 2020, most polls over-estimated Biden support by 1.5% points [Dems Bias]
  • Average Bias in the last 4 elections is Dems Bias +0.5 but it could range from 4.6% against Dems to 3.5% in favor of Dems

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Google Search Update, Oct 17th

While polls are showing a close race between McAuliffe and Youngkin, Google search data shows Mr. Youngkin on par with Donald Trump. Remember, Trump lost this state by nearly 10% points. Also, unlike the Polls, the gap between Youngkin and McAuliffe has been reducing over the last few weeks.

However, one must note that in the 2017 election, Ralph Northam led his rival Ed Gillespie on Google Search.

image 180

7 days leading to the 2020 US Presidential election: Trump: 65%,Biden: 35%

Where has Glenn Youngkin gained in comparison with Trump?

Richmond – 8% swing in favour of Youngkin

Charlottesville – Marginal swing

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: What are the Prediction and Betting Odds? Oct 17th

On Smarkets, the chances of a Republican victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is at 27%

On Polymarket, the chances of a Republican Victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is 20%

On Predictit, the chances of a Republican Victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is 31%

2021 Virginia Election Odds: Potential Polling Errors Create Betting Value

Track 2021 NJ Governor Polls here

Crowd’s Virginia Governor Race Predictions and Videos, Oct 16th

2022 Governor Election Prediction | Virginia Race Prediction

How Glenn Youngkin can win Virginia Governor’s Race! | 2021 Prediction and Analysis.

4 reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Governor Election

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Polls in detail

CBS Virginia Governor Race Polls

  • 50% of voters are backing Terry McAuliffe
  • 47% are backing Glenn Youngkin
  • Among those who have already voted 61% have voted for Terry McAuliffe and 37% for Glenn Youngkin

Demographic
Terry McAuliffe
Glenn Youngkin
Men (CBS YouGov)
44%
53%
Men (Fox)
50%
48%
Women (CBS YouGov)
56%
42%
Women (Fox)
52%
43%
18-30 (CBS YouGov)
61%
36%
31-44 (CBS YouGov)
53%
43%
Less than 45 years (Fox)
56%
40%
45-64 (CBS YouGov)
49%
50%
65+ (CBS YouGov)
48%
50%
> 45 years (Fox)
46%
46%
Liberals
93%
4%
Moderates
60%
39%
Independents
44%
53%
Conservatives
9%
88%
White
45%
53%
Whites without a Degree
39%
58%
Whites with a 4 year degree
53%
46%
Blacks
85%
13%
  • 54% say Virginia Businesses should require vaccines for Employees
    46% of Voters say Terry McAuliffe would perform better on Covid Vaccines compared to 41% for Youngkin
  • 45% say Glenn Youngkin would perfrom better on jobs compared to 41% for Terry McAuliffe
  • 50% of Youngkin voters are enthusiastic to vote compared to 44% for McAuliffe
  • Biden has a 48% approval rating and a 52% disapproval rating
  • 55% say masks for students in schools should be required
  • 67% says the grocery tax should be eliminated

CNU Virginia Governor Race Poll

  • 49% of voters are backing Terry McAuliffe
  • 45% are backing Glenn Youngkin
  • 5% voters are still undecided
  • Terry McAuliffe’s lead has come down to 4 points from 9 points in the last poll which happened in late August.
  • Independent voters have shifted significantly, with Glenn Youngkin gaining 11 points since late August (from 39% to 50%), while McAuliffe has lost ground among Independents (from 44% to 41%).

Emerson Virginia Governor Race Poll

  • The latest Emerson Poll shows a dead heat in the race.
  • 48.7% of voters are backing Terry McAuliffe
  • 47.9% of voters are backing Glenn Youngkin
  • President Biden’s approval is at 45% with his disapproval at 48%
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021: McAuliffe narrowly ahead at 47.7% vs Youngkin at 44.4%

Virginia governor election early voting coverage

Latest Virginia Governor Election Early Voting Update, 399,000 had already voted as on Oct 15th, 2.8 million had voted by election data in the Nov 2020 US Presidential election

Latest Virginia Governor Election Early Voting Update, 19 days before election day

2020: Dems 68%, GOP 32%

2021: Dems: 57%: GOP 43%

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Latest Campaign News, Oct 16th

Articles that are written by partisan websites are marked ether by(D) or (R). Article choices are driven by their appearance on Google.

Oct 17th

In Virginia, Republicans see education, curriculum fears as a path to victory

Gibson: Will McAuliffe’s ‘viral moment’ during last debate swing undecideds to Youngkin?

Opinion/Letter: McAuliffe has history of supporting parents (D)

Oct 16th

‘Extreme Abortion Ban’ Would Follow GOP Win in Virginia Election, Says Terry McAuliffe’s AG

Virginia Governor’s Race Ad Says Trump ‘Scared’ to Campaign There, Mocks His ‘Loser Stench’

McAuliffe outraises Youngkin with big national donations in September

Obama and Trump wade into key battle over Virginia’s governor seat

Virginia energy giant quietly boosts McAuliffe

McAuliffe fights to engage politically exhausted Democrats in close of Virginia campaign

Virginia is for worriers: Governor race poses real risk to Dem agenda

Delicate dance for Trump, Youngkin in campaign’s final weeks

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Latest Videos , Oct 16th

Terry McAuliffe Enters Packed Restaurant Without A Mask Hugging Individuals

Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe on his opponent, GOP candidate Youngkin

Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 : Latest Tweets, Oct 16th

Originally tweeted by Terry McAuliffe (@TerryMcAuliffe) on October 16, 2021.

The Donald Trump rally for Glenn Youngkin was a BIG wake up call folks. We don’t want a Trump wannabe as our governor here in Virginia.

Originally tweeted by Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) on October 16, 2021.

Stacey Abrams and Terry McAuliffe have something in common: they both claimed elections were stolen. McAuliffe’s shameless embrace of Abrams is telling. It’s clear he’s a dishonest politician who says one thing and does the exact opposite. #VAgov

Originally tweeted by DNC War Room (@DNCWarRoom) on October 16, 2021.

By land, air, and sea we’re putting one question in front of Trump: Why won’t @GlennYoungkin let him come campaign in Virginia?

Originally tweeted by Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) on October 16, 2021.

With Virginia facing a serious crime problem, @TerryMcAuliffe’s continued embrace of “defund the police” radicals like @staceyabrams, @KeishaBottoms, and the far-left group @NewVAMajority is a giant red flag that should worry every Virginian. #VAgov

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Demographics of the State

As per the 2020 Census

Demographic Group
Proportion
White American
58.6%
Black American
18.3%
Hispanic American
10.5%
Asian American
7.1%
Multi-racial
4.7%
Others
0.8%

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Voter Registration along Party lines

As of 9/1/2021, the Commonwealth of Virginia has 5,923,401 registered voters. In the latest Fox News Poll, 44% of the voters identified themselves as Democrat or lean Democrat, 40% as Republican or leaning Republican, and 16% as Independent
Regional differences have begun to play a large part in Virginia politics in recent times

  • Urban and growing suburban areas, including much of Northern Virginia and recently, Richmond form the Democratic Party base
  • Rural southern and western areas support the Republican Party
  • Democratic support also persists in union-influenced Roanoke in Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern Black Belt Region.

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: What are the top issues?

The most pressing issues as per respondents when asked (Fox News Poll) to choose the top issues are

  • Economy and Jobs (32%)
  • COVID (20%)
  • Health care (12%).  
  • Taxes (9%)
  • Abortion/ Crime/Education – 7% each

Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021: How to track Glenn Youngkin’s campaign ?

Youngkin for governor- Candidate website

Glenn Youngkin@GlennYoungkin, Twitter handle

Glenn Youngkin, Youtube

Glenn Youngkin instagram

Virginia GOP Twitter handle

Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021: How to track Terry McAuliffe’s campaign?

Terry McAuliffe’s website

Terry McAuliffe’s Youtube Channel

Terry McAuliffe’s instagram

Terry McAuliffe’s Twitter handle

Virginia Democrats Twitter handle

Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : How Virginia has voted in past electoral races.

From 1952 Virginia has been a swing state on the National Presidential level, and a swing state on the Gubernatorial level since 1969 .

The state had been known to elect its Governor from the party that is not in the White House before the 2013 Virginia Governor Race. However, in recent years a state which was once reliably Republican at the national level has gradually shifted towards first becoming a swing state and has now shifted more towards the Democrats than the Republicans.

The Republicans have not won a single statewide election since 2009.

A shift that many believe is due to the growing population in the liberal-leaning suburbs of Northern Virginia now a Democrat Bastion which borders D.C. and Maryland, and the suburbs of Central Virginia i.e. the state capital of Richmond

Both its Senators in the US Senate have been Democrats since 2008 , 7 out of 11 House Representatives are from the Democratic Party. Both houses in the state are held by a Democratic Majority. Add to that the last time a Republican was elected to a Statewide office was in 2009.

The 2017 election had the highest voter turnout percentage in a Virginia governor election in twenty years and Ralph Northam won the election by the largest margin for a Democrat since 1985.

A)Past Virginia Governor Election Results

Year
Winning Candidate
Winner’s Voteshare
Runner-up
Runner-ups Voteshare
2017
Ralph Northam
53.9%
Ed Gillespie
45.0%
2013
Terry McAuliffe(D)
47.8%
Ken Cuccinelli(R)
45.2%
2009
Bob McConnell(R)
58.6%
Creigh Deeds(D)
41.3%
2005
Tim Kaine(D)
51.39%
Jery Kilgore(R)
46.0%

B) Past Virginia Presidential Race Results

After re-construction from 1872 to 1948, Virginia voted for the Democratic Presidential Candidate at the National Level .

From 1952 to 2004, except in 1964 Virginia voted for the Republican Presidential Candidate.
But since 2008, the state has voted for Democratic Candidates.

Year
Democratic Candidate
Democrat VS
Republican Candidate
Republican VS
2020
Joe Biden
54.11%
Donald J Trump
44.00%
2016
Hillary Clinton
49.75%
Donald J Trump
44.43%
2012
Barack Obama
51.16%
Mitt Romney
47.28%
2008
Barack Obama
52.63%
John McCain
46.33%
2004
John Kerry
45.48%
George Bush
53.68%

C)House of Representative Races

Compare the difference between Democrats and Republicans in the 2020 House of Representatives Races and the US Presidential Race 2020. That leaves food for thought.

Year
Democratic Voteshare
Republican Voteshare
2020
51.99%
47.23%
2018
56.36%
42.52%
2016
49.17%
48.74%
2014
39.72%
53.56%
2012
50.17%
48.28%

Compare and tally Tables A,B and C first from 2012 to 2016 and then in 2018 to 2020. Earlier there used to be split voting where some people would vote for one party in one election and for another party in the next one.
But it seems to be slowly disappearing especially in the last few years

Virginia governor election early voting

Virginia Department of Elections

Read: Joe Biden Approval rating: Struggling on Immigration and Economy

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13 Comments
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Robert Bailey
Robert Bailey
2 months ago

Virginia is going RED in November.

Bagwell
Bagwell
29 days ago
Reply to  Robert Bailey

Idiot.northern va will again carry the day.

Sue
Sue
1 month ago
Reply to  Robert Bailey

If you mean Virginia GQP will be red with anger, then you are correct.
Voting Blue for every election the rest of my life.

Bagwell
Bagwell
29 days ago
Reply to  Sue

Yes yes yes yes

USA
USA
2 months ago

personally idk how this election will go, polls have McAuliffe at a 1-3 point lead, making it seem like he will win, but in reality it’ll be Much closer, remember Virginia in the 2020 Presidential Election was predicted to go 52.75% for Biden and 37% for Trump, but turns out polls were 7% off for republicans and 1.35% off for democrats- so if we gave McAuliffe an edge of 1.35% to what he currently stands and Youngkin a 7% edge, Youngkin would be winning gin the polls by a lean/tilt margin.

Bartley F Tuthill
Bartley F Tuthill
2 months ago

\trumpkins is an idiot and is the epitome of a revisionist and a recessive. He only tells the truth when caught unawares on a hot mike.

Bagwell
Bagwell
29 days ago

True+++++

Anthony
Anthony
2 months ago

The problem is the demacrats have the machines so im having problems believing its gonna be a free and fair election…If it were fair i believe Youngkin wins it!

Bagwell
Bagwell
29 days ago
Reply to  Anthony

You are really sick

Candyce
Candyce
1 month ago

I am PROUD to say I’m joining the movement to write in Amanda Chase! No more rinos!

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