Virginia Governor Polls 2021: McAuliffe 49.3%, Youngkin 47.1%. Youngkin has the momentum but can he win?
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Background
After the 2020 US Presidential election, the first ideological proxy fight between the Centre-Left path of the Biden-led Democratic party and a Republican Party that is eager to hold on to Trump’s voter base and his additions to their ideology will be seen in the form of the Virginia Governor Race 2021.
Virginia Governor Race 2021 Date: November 2nd, 2021 [16 days ahead]
This page is updated twice a day with the latest polls, Google search trends, news, videos, Crowd’s wisdom and tweets from the campaign. We also provide analysis on a frequent basis.
- Crowdwisdom360 Analysis: Glenn Youngkin has the momentum to win the election
- Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls, Oct 17th
- Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Google Search Update, Oct 17th
- Virginia governor election early voting coverage
- Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Latest Campaign News, Oct 16th
- Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Latest Videos , Oct 16th
- Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 : Latest Tweets, Oct 16th
Crowdwisdom360 Analysis: Glenn Youngkin has the momentum to win the election
In August, McAuliffe was ahead by 5.2% points, this has come down to 2.2% in October. This is is highly likely to continue to shift in favor of Youngkin until voting day giving him the edge in this election. The only way McAuliffe can win this is by driving a much higher than Normal Democratic turnout or coming up with a huge punch on Youngkin that will stem the losses amongst Independents.
McAuliffe’s deliberate focus on Trump is to push Democrat Turnout to levels that will help him scrape through. A strategy the Dems applied in the CA recall recently. The other weak area for the GOP is the Texas abortion law. Our observation was that mentions of the law mobilised voters better than most other issues.
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Virginia Governor Race Predictions
Too Close to Call
Too Close to Call
Betting/ Prediction Platforms
Terry McAuliffe (51.5%)
Early Voting Trends
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Latest Polls, Oct 17th
Polls show Terry McAuliffe with a small advantage over Glenn Youngkin.
Dates of polling
Oct 1st-Oct 13th
Final Result, Northam +8.9
Sept 27th -Oct 6th
Fox News Poll – 2021 vs 2017
In 2017, Northam won by 8.9% of the vote. We compare the last Fox Poll of 2017 with the latest Fox Poll. Note that Fox had under-estimated Northam by 4% points in 2017
McAuliffe appears to have made gains amongst younger men while Youngkin appears to have made gains amongst Women
Polls have had a mixed record in Virginia.
- In 2013, Polls over-estimated McAuliffe support by 3.5% [Dems Bias]
- In 2016, Clinton vs Trump Polls were precise in predicting the result
- In 2017, Polls under-estimated support for Ralph Northam by 4.6% points [GOP Bias]
- In 2020, most polls over-estimated Biden support by 1.5% points [Dems Bias]
- Average Bias in the last 4 elections is Dems Bias +0.5 but it could range from 4.6% against Dems to 3.5% in favor of Dems
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Google Search Update, Oct 17th
While polls are showing a close race between McAuliffe and Youngkin, Google search data shows Mr. Youngkin on par with Donald Trump. Remember, Trump lost this state by nearly 10% points. Also, unlike the Polls, the gap between Youngkin and McAuliffe has been reducing over the last few weeks.
However, one must note that in the 2017 election, Ralph Northam led his rival Ed Gillespie on Google Search.
7 days leading to the 2020 US Presidential election: Trump: 65%,Biden: 35%
Where has Glenn Youngkin gained in comparison with Trump?
Richmond – 8% swing in favour of Youngkin
Charlottesville – Marginal swing
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: What are the Prediction and Betting Odds? Oct 17th
On Smarkets, the chances of a Republican victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is at 27%
On Polymarket, the chances of a Republican Victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is 20%
On Predictit, the chances of a Republican Victory in the Virginia Governor election 2021 is 31%
Crowd’s Virginia Governor Race Predictions and Videos, Oct 16th
2022 Governor Election Prediction | Virginia Race Prediction
How Glenn Youngkin can win Virginia Governor’s Race! | 2021 Prediction and Analysis.
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Polls in detail
CBS Virginia Governor Race Polls
- 50% of voters are backing Terry McAuliffe
- 47% are backing Glenn Youngkin
- Among those who have already voted 61% have voted for Terry McAuliffe and 37% for Glenn Youngkin
Men (CBS YouGov)
Women (CBS YouGov)
18-30 (CBS YouGov)
31-44 (CBS YouGov)
Less than 45 years (Fox)
45-64 (CBS YouGov)
65+ (CBS YouGov)
> 45 years (Fox)
Whites without a Degree
Whites with a 4 year degree
- 54% say Virginia Businesses should require vaccines for Employees
46% of Voters say Terry McAuliffe would perform better on Covid Vaccines compared to 41% for Youngkin
- 45% say Glenn Youngkin would perfrom better on jobs compared to 41% for Terry McAuliffe
- 50% of Youngkin voters are enthusiastic to vote compared to 44% for McAuliffe
- Biden has a 48% approval rating and a 52% disapproval rating
- 55% say masks for students in schools should be required
- 67% says the grocery tax should be eliminated
CNU Virginia Governor Race Poll
- 49% of voters are backing Terry McAuliffe
- 45% are backing Glenn Youngkin
- 5% voters are still undecided
- Terry McAuliffe’s lead has come down to 4 points from 9 points in the last poll which happened in late August.
- Independent voters have shifted significantly, with Glenn Youngkin gaining 11 points since late August (from 39% to 50%), while McAuliffe has lost ground among Independents (from 44% to 41%).
Emerson Virginia Governor Race Poll
- The latest Emerson Poll shows a dead heat in the race.
- 48.7% of voters are backing Terry McAuliffe
- 47.9% of voters are backing Glenn Youngkin
- President Biden’s approval is at 45% with his disapproval at 48%
Virginia governor election early voting coverage
Latest Virginia Governor Election Early Voting Update, 399,000 had already voted as on Oct 15th, 2.8 million had voted by election data in the Nov 2020 US Presidential election
Latest Virginia Governor Election Early Voting Update, 19 days before election day
2020: Dems 68%, GOP 32%
2021: Dems: 57%: GOP 43%
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: Latest Campaign News, Oct 16th
Articles that are written by partisan websites are marked ether by(D) or (R). Article choices are driven by their appearance on Google.
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Latest Videos , Oct 16th
Terry McAuliffe Enters Packed Restaurant Without A Mask Hugging Individuals
Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe on his opponent, GOP candidate Youngkin
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021 : Latest Tweets, Oct 16th
The Donald Trump rally for Glenn Youngkin was a BIG wake up call folks. We don’t want a Trump wannabe as our governor here in Virginia.
Stacey Abrams and Terry McAuliffe have something in common: they both claimed elections were stolen. McAuliffe’s shameless embrace of Abrams is telling. It’s clear he’s a dishonest politician who says one thing and does the exact opposite. #VAgov
By land, air, and sea we’re putting one question in front of Trump: Why won’t @GlennYoungkin let him come campaign in Virginia?
With Virginia facing a serious crime problem, @TerryMcAuliffe’s continued embrace of “defund the police” radicals like @staceyabrams, @KeishaBottoms, and the far-left group @NewVAMajority is a giant red flag that should worry every Virginian. #VAgov
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Demographics of the State
As per the 2020 Census
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : Voter Registration along Party lines
As of 9/1/2021, the Commonwealth of Virginia has 5,923,401 registered voters. In the latest Fox News Poll, 44% of the voters identified themselves as Democrat or lean Democrat, 40% as Republican or leaning Republican, and 16% as Independent
Regional differences have begun to play a large part in Virginia politics in recent times
- Urban and growing suburban areas, including much of Northern Virginia and recently, Richmond form the Democratic Party base
- Rural southern and western areas support the Republican Party
- Democratic support also persists in union-influenced Roanoke in Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern Black Belt Region.
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 and News: What are the top issues?
The most pressing issues as per respondents when asked (Fox News Poll) to choose the top issues are
- Economy and Jobs (32%)
- COVID (20%)
- Health care (12%).
- Taxes (9%)
- Abortion/ Crime/Education – 7% each
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021: How to track Glenn Youngkin’s campaign ?
Virginia Governor Race Polls 2021: How to track Terry McAuliffe’s campaign?
Virginia Governor Polls 2021 : How Virginia has voted in past electoral races.
From 1952 Virginia has been a swing state on the National Presidential level, and a swing state on the Gubernatorial level since 1969 .
The state had been known to elect its Governor from the party that is not in the White House before the 2013 Virginia Governor Race. However, in recent years a state which was once reliably Republican at the national level has gradually shifted towards first becoming a swing state and has now shifted more towards the Democrats than the Republicans.
The Republicans have not won a single statewide election since 2009.
A shift that many believe is due to the growing population in the liberal-leaning suburbs of Northern Virginia now a Democrat Bastion which borders D.C. and Maryland, and the suburbs of Central Virginia i.e. the state capital of Richmond
Both its Senators in the US Senate have been Democrats since 2008 , 7 out of 11 House Representatives are from the Democratic Party. Both houses in the state are held by a Democratic Majority. Add to that the last time a Republican was elected to a Statewide office was in 2009.
The 2017 election had the highest voter turnout percentage in a Virginia governor election in twenty years and Ralph Northam won the election by the largest margin for a Democrat since 1985.
A)Past Virginia Governor Election Results
B) Past Virginia Presidential Race Results
After re-construction from 1872 to 1948, Virginia voted for the Democratic Presidential Candidate at the National Level .
From 1952 to 2004, except in 1964 Virginia voted for the Republican Presidential Candidate.
But since 2008, the state has voted for Democratic Candidates.
Donald J Trump
Donald J Trump
C)House of Representative Races
Compare the difference between Democrats and Republicans in the 2020 House of Representatives Races and the US Presidential Race 2020. That leaves food for thought.
Compare and tally Tables A,B and C first from 2012 to 2016 and then in 2018 to 2020. Earlier there used to be split voting where some people would vote for one party in one election and for another party in the next one.
But it seems to be slowly disappearing especially in the last few years