Warnock Polls 2022: Can Raphael Warnock Defend His Senate Seat Against Herchel Walker?

Georgia was a peach for Democrats in 2020; however, it may be souring heading into the midterms. If President Biden wants his legislative agenda to survive into his next election, it needs life support this fall. Unfortunately for him, it appears that Republican attacks on his agenda are beginning to take root – with his popularity falling to net unpopular in the wake of Afghanistan and Republicans taking the lead in generic ballot polling.

Meaning that for the first time since the election of Donald Trump, Republicans are a more popular choice than Democrats by about 4%. With a 51-50 Senate (with Vice President Harris as a tiebreaker), there is little room for Democrats to lose without losing the whole Senate. Leaving Sen. Raphael Warnock’s re-election campaign all the more crucial to their agenda.

Although the primaries are yet to occur, it appears highly likely that the election will occur as a contest between Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock and Former University of Georgia Runningback Herschel Walker. Given that the latest Republican primary poll by Quinnipiac showed Mr. Walker leading other candidates by more than 75%.

Warnock Polls, Georgia Senate Election 2022:: Latest GOP Primary Polls

Figure 1: Quinnipiac GOP Primary Poll of Likely Republican Voters

Warnock Polls, Georgia Senate Election 2022:: General Election Polls

The latest poll by Quinnipiac University released on January 24, shows both Warnock and Walker in a close fight. As per the poll:

1. If Walker is the GOP candidate, in poll between Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, voters give Walker 49 percent and Warnock 48 percent. 
2. Warnock had won the previous election by a margin of just 2 points.
3. Voters have a mixed opinion of Warnock: 44 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable, and 13 percent haven’t heard enough.
4. Voters have a favorable opinion of Walker: 42 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable, and 30 percent haven’t heard enough.

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Warnock Polls, Georgia Senate Election 2022:: Latest Tweets

Warnock Polls, Georgia Senate Election 2022:: Why Senator Warnock May Lose?

Senator Warnock is currently leading the fundraising race, with the end of the previous quarter showing him hauling in $9.8 million in fundraising and leaving him with approximately $23 million cash on hand to expend.

Mr. Walker still has substantial cash reserves himself, raising $5.4 million dollars in the same time frame yet not disclosing the amount of cash had on hand. Early financial trends are important for determining enthusiasm and momentum in a campaign, so this is a substantial result in favor of the incumbent Democrat. However, Sen. Warnock has substantial hurdles to overcome.

Firstly, national political trends appear to be manifesting in Georgia with Mr. Walker leading in each of two statewide polls – conducted by Quinnipiac and by the Atlanta-Journal Constitution – by 1% and 3% respectively. Another issue appears to be a high level of polarization that may solidify before Senator Warnock’s campaign can properly begin, shown by a low level of undecideds in each poll.

Secondly, Mr. Walker has been leading Senator Warnock in Google Search trends since the start of the month throughout much of Georgia. This can indicate a significant level of interest in his campaign, which can be heavily influential in allowing a certain campaign to establish the electoral narrative.

Figure 2: Google Search trends in Georgia (Last 7 Days)

Thirdly, no matter how hard Senator Warnock tries his campaign will be tied to President Joe Biden and his record. This will be a deep issue given that the President is currently sitting at an approximate -12% net approval rating and a low probability of legislative action before the midterms. If Democrats are lucky, the successful appointment of their preferred candidate to the Supreme Court could boost the party and the president’s popularity. Yet, it will be a tall order to boost it to an amount that can save their federal supermajority.

Warnock Polls, Georgia Senate Election 2022:: Final Verdict

Despite the national trends tending heavily in Republicans’ favor, Senator Warnock is still neck-in-neck with Mr. Walker and likely will be even up to election day. Georgia is a heavily polarized state that has been won by single digits by each party for around a decade. So this election will be one to pay special attention to over the coming months.

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