Georgia Runoff Polls: Warnock likely to win by a small margin

Georgia Runoff Polls: Warnock likely to win by a small margin

Latest Prediction for Georgia Senate Runoff Election: Raphael Warnock is predicted to win the upcoming Georgia Runoff election.

Latest Warnock vs Walker Polls (Average): Raphael Warnock: 49.3%, Herschel Walker 48.3%

Warnock vs Walker Election 2022 Result: Warnock 49.4%, Walker 48.5%
Google Search Volumes: Raphael Warnock 47%, Herschel Walker 53%
Social Media Sentiments: Raphael Warnock: -7.5%, Herschel Walker: -40.8%

CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Warnock to win by a margin of 0.5 to 1%

The Georgia Senate Runoff Race 2022 will be held on December 6th, 2022 to elect a member of the US Senate from Georgia. The Candidates for the Georgia Senate race are Rev Raphael Warnock (D), the Incumbent, and Herschel Walker (R). Both candidates ended with less than the required 50% of the vote.

What is a Runoff Election?

  • Runoff elections are held when no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes
  • The top 2 vote-getters face each other in a runoff election 4 weeks after the general election.
  • Early voting begins a week prior to the runoff date
  • Anyone who is registered to vote in Georgia can vote in the Georgia Senate Runoff election. Voters can also participate in the runoff by mail. Only voters who have registered themselves as voters in Georgia before the General election will be allowed to vote.

Warnock vs Walker Polls: Observation and Insights

  • Warnock leads Walker by 1% after 3 polls were released over the last few days
  • Warnock maintains a 15-point lead among Independent voters and an 11-point lead among women giving him an overall edge of 1 point.
  • In the General Election, 38k votes separated Warnock and Walker with 81k voting for Chase Oliver in the General election
  • Where did Raphael Warnock win big?
    • Warnock won Fulton by 49% and DeKalb by 70%. Biden beat Trump by 46% and 68% in these counties
  • Where did Herschel Walker win big?
    • Herschel Walker won Cherokee and Forsyth by 38% and 33% respectively. Trump won by 39% and 33% respectively.
  • Overall, it appears Walker underperformed Trump in strong Dem counties
  • Who are the 3rd party voters likely to prefer?
    • According to the Marist Poll that favored Warnock, many of those who voted 3rd party candidates were Men-White and Non-College graduates. This group in general favors Walker
    • However, the county-level results show ‘Others’ coming from both Red and Blue Counties
    • It is likely that many of these voters are unlikely to vote for either Warnock or Walker
  • Can Warnock win again?
    • Yes, Warnock can win again. Warnock had issues with Democratic party turnout in the General election in November, he will focus to push this turnout by a few thousand votes.
    • A quarter of million voters had already voted by Monday, a record. Women are turning out in larger numbers.
  • Can Walker win this election?
    • Herschel Walker will need to bridge a 38k vote gap between him and Raphael Warnock
    • He can do that by appealing to Kemp voters to switch over to him. At the moment about 10% of such voters are likely to shift to Herschel Walker.
    • He can also persuade Libertarian voters to vote for him
    • One issue that may persuade voters to switch votes would be to maintain the balance of power in the Senate.
  • Warnock has a $9 Million Cash advantage two weeks before the election.
  • Raphael Warnock has appointed 300 new campaign staffers to boost turnout for the vote
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Deciding Factor

The runoff election between Warnock and Walker is expected to be very close. But the most important factor that will decide the election result will be the voter turnout.

The Democratic Party has already won the Senate with 50 of the Democrats now elected after the mid-term election. Warnock may face an issue of leading the maximum Democrat voters to the voting area.

For Walker, the issue may be Donald Trump’s announcement of running for the 2024 Presidential election. Walker is endorsed by Trump and Trump’s approval rating in Georgia is underwater. However, to make sure maximum Republican voter turnout happens, former Republican Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler who was Walker’s opponent in GOP Primary election has come in support of Walker. She is campaigning to make sure more Republicans turn up for voting. Loeffler also dismissed any challenges that former President Trump’s announcement to run for the 2024 election would pose for Walker in the race.

Georgia Senate Polls 2022: Herschel Walker Polls

Average of Polls

  • Raphael Warnock: 49.3%
  • Herschel Walker: 48.3%

Frederick Polls

  • Raphael Warnock: 50%
  • Herschel Walker: 50%

Andover Poll (Phillips Academy)

  • Raphael Warnock: 47%
  • Herschel Walker: 48%

Impact Research and Fabrizio Ward

  • Raphael Warnock: 51%
  • Herschel Walker: 47%

Georgia Senate Polls: Google Search Trends

Nov 1-8th

  • Herschel Walker: 49%
  • Raphael Warnock: 51%

Past 7 Days

  • Herschel Walker: 54% (Steady)
  • Raphael Warnock: 46% (Steady)

Georgia Senate Polls: Social Media Sentiment Tracker

Last 24 Hours

  • Warnock: -7.5% (Falling)
  • Walker: -40.8% (Falling)

Georgia Senate Race Polls 2022: Major Republican Endorsements

Herschel Walker is the front-runner as a GOP candidate for the upcoming Georgia Senate election. He has been able to garner big endorsements. The latest endorsement for Herschel Walker’s candidature came from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Apart from Mike Pompeo, Walker is endorsed by:

  1. Former US President Donald Trump
  2. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Herschel Walker Polls: Demographics

Voting age Population of Georgia- 7.6 Million

As per the census 2020, 50% of the voters are White, 31% are Black, Hispanic voters make up for 10% and Asians make up 4% of the voters. 52.6% of the voters are female.

The Youngest Cohorts of voters (Those aged less than 30) make up 22% of the voters while the oldest cohort (those older than 64) make up 20% of the voters.

Georgia Senate Race 2022 Polls

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Nitesh Singh

Nitesh Singh

Nitesh is primarily focused on political analysis and creates political opinions based on data. He also takes interest in writing Crypto articles mostly related to price predictions.

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