Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast 2023
Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast 2023: Read about short-term and long-term Apple Stock Predictions.
Latest Apple Stock Price
AAPL Stock Performance Chart
- 1 Month: +7.7%
- 3 Months: +17.4%
- 12 Months: -8.7%
Apple Stock Forecast for the Next 12 Months
|Bank of America||$190|
|Evercore ISI Group||$210|
Summary of Last 4 Quarterly Results
|(USD)||Mar 2023||Dec 2022||Sep 2022||Jun 2022|
|Net profit margin||25.48%||25.61%||22.99%||23.44%|
|Net change in cash||5.15B||-3B||-3.88B||-319M|
|Cost of revenue||52.86B||66.82B||52.05B||47.07B|
Apple Stock Prediction for the Next 5 Years
Apple Stock Price Prediction 2023 is $203
Apple Stock Price Prediction 2024 is $242
Apple Stock Price Prediction 2025 is $286
Apple Stock Price Prediction 2026 is $327
Apple Stock Price Prediction 2027 is $366
Apple Technical Analysis
Apple’s stock price failed to break above $200 and the sellers got an opportunity to short the stock. Apple is on a downtrend and closed lower on Monday. Technically AAPL is bearish.
Here is how Apple Stock Performed on the Last Trading Day
- Open: $180.95
- Close: $179.58
- Gain/Loss: -0.76%
- Market Cap: $2.825 T
Apple stock price has been above its 50-day as well as the 200-day moving averages and the buyers have been driving the overall momentum. However, despite multiple attempts, the buyers have been unable to push the AAPL stock price above $200 which gave the sellers an opportunity to short the asset.
The 50-day MA of AAPL stock is around $174 while the 200-day MA is $158. As the stock price is above both 50-day and 200-day MA it is a bullish indication. However, the price is on a downtrend which means, the short-term trend has turned bearish. The immediate support of AAPL is $170 but the 50-day MA could also serve as an important support.
The Relative Strength Index of the AAPL stock at the time of writing is 59.20. It is within the neutral zone but with the selling pressure up, the RSI is on a downtrend.
On the MACD (12, 26) chart, the trend is positive. The MACD line remains above the signal line and the green histogram bars have increased on the bullish axis. This is a buy signal.
The Williams Percent Range of Tesla is -36.96. The Williams%R indicates an unfavorable bearish trend. The W%R is on a downtrend. The sellers are in control. It is a bearish indication.
Considering these factors, the long-term technical analysis of the stock, AAPL has turned technically bearish.
|1. Market's Wisdom||Bullish|
|1a. Market Data||Partially Bullish|
|1b. Technical Recommendation||Buy|
|2. Crowd's Wisdom||Partially Bearish|
|2a. Social Media Buzz||Steady|
|2b. Social Media Sentiment||Lower|
Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast 2023: Apple Recent Developments
Wall Street lacks enthusiasm for Apple headsets
In contrast to the euphoria around the introduction of past Apple products, analysts are expressing low expectations for the early sales of Apple’s mixed reality headset. The headset, which is scheduled to be launched on June 5, is thought to be less enticing to non-gamers and to lack the excitement of artificial intelligence, a field in which Apple has been comparatively underrepresented. Consumer interest in headsets for virtual reality and augmented reality has been modest. Despite the fact that several analysts recognise Apple’s history of innovation, they predict a moderate acceptance of the headset due to the difficulties and underwhelming results of the VR/AR market. Despite low expectations for the headset’s impact, Apple’s stock has done well this year.
During the midyear online shopping festival, Apple will offer products for sale via live streaming on the Alibaba network
In order to capitalise on a well-liked sales strategy that has drawn more than 500 million users to China’s Tmall marketplace, Apple is preparing to stage its first live-streamed shopping event there. The event, which is planned for China’s yearly “618” shopping festival, will highlight items including the iPhone 14 and iWatch. On Chinese internet platforms, live-streamed shopping has grown commonplace, enabling users to engage with companies and make purchases in real time. With this action, Apple hopes to increase sales in a market where its presence has been dwindling. The event is timed to go along with sales on other e-commerce websites including JD.com and Tmall.
Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast 2023: Factors that Will Impact Apple’s Share Price in 2023
- Valuation is all that matters- 2022 has been harsh for high-valued stocks. Various stocks like Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) fell drastically due to high valuation metrics and poor earnings to fall back to. For Apple Inc, the current P/E ratio stands at 25.52. Its annual earnings per share came at $6.14 and hence the share price is trading at $153.48 (as of 31.10.2022).
Now, the P/E of 25.52 is slightly higher as compared to its peers. For example, Alphabet Inc shares are trading at a P/E of 19.38 and Meta Platforms shares are trading at a P/E of 9.45. Although both companies had a really bad quarter, if FED continues to hike the interest rates, P/E for Apple Inc can also cool off a bit.
Additionally, earning forecast for the next financial year is $6.32 per stock. Taking the cooled-off P/E of 20x, the price target for 2023 comes only at $126 or so, which is approximately 18% below the current stock price. The extent to which P/E cools off depends on the FED interest rate hike. But if Apple shares have to march towards the $180 target in 2023, then earnings should outperform the market expectations by quite some distance.
- The Service sector is the next big thing – Whenever Apple Inc reports quarterly results, all eyes are on iPhone sales, but quite secretly, it’s their service business that is growing rapidly over the recent years. It has contributed more than 20% in revenue in the recent results and even a greater share in the overall profits. This segment supports a high gross margin and hence sponsors almost one-third of the overall income of the company.
In the recent quarter that ended September 24, 2022, the service business grew 5% YoY and its total revenue came to $19 billion out of the company’s overall revenue of $90 billion. It is a fact that macroeconomic factors weighted down growth in the service business in this quarter due to a drop in digital advertising spending and increasing foreign exchange rates. But once the economy is on the right path, there is no structural reason for the service businesses not to give double-digit growth. In fact, it will be the main driver if Apple shares have to march to $180 in 2023.
- Growth in the hardware sector – The hardware sector for Apple has also raised eyebrows. The company’s largest revenue segment remains the iPhone and stellar growth is not expected in this sector in the coming year. It is because the iPhone’s sales have increased over 10% YoY in the latest quarter.
However, Apple does not have great hardware products in the pipeline. Moreover, the recently launched iPhone 14 did not receive great reviews, and the holiday season was expected to go muted for Apple in terms of iPhone sales. Nevertheless, Mac sales increased 25% in the latest quarter earnings, and interestingly, nearly half of the Mac buyers were new to the product.
In 2023, growth in the hardware segment is likely to remain dull and that is one big reason to be not outrightly bullish for Apple. It is expected to ride the tide of macroeconomic uncertainties, but the possibility of double-digit growth especially in the hardware segment is very bleak.
Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast 2023: Positive Factors
- Strong Q3 Results – Apple Inc posted excellent Q3 results
- Revenue increased 2% YoY to $83.0 billion
- Net sales in services up by 12%
- Americas grew 4%, Europe grew 2%
- iPhone sales increased 3% to $40 billion
- Gross margin increased by 2%
- Robust Smartphones Demand
- The smartphone market was around $270 billion last year and is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 7.6%
- Apple controlled nearly 17.5% of smartphones globally in 2021, up from 16 percent in 2020.
- This percentage further increased in the case of 5G in which Apple controls almost 28% of phones globally.
- Regular Share Buyback Program and Excellent Dividend
- Free cash flow for Apple in the last four quarters has crossed $100 billion and surprisingly it has rewarded its shareholders handsomely by paying $14 billion in dividends last year. Apple is announcing regular buyback programs and in turn, boosting shareholder returns by reducing the number of free-floating shares in the market. Apple had 22 billion shares in 2017 and by end of the fiscal year 2021, only 16.86 shares are left. It means that the percentage of ownership for every shareholder has increased proportionately in the last five years.
- Sticking to the Basics
- While Apple is not bombarding the market with breakthrough products every couple of years and management is sticking to the basics, free cash flow is allowing it to reinvest and improve products and its services which are driving up revenues by increased sales. Apple is investing a large chunk of revenue in R&D – which stood at $23 billion in the past year and hence we can expect a path-breaking product anytime soon.
Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast 2023: Negative Factors
- AR/VR Headsets Will Not Contribute Towards Revenue in Coming Years – While it is great news that Apple is launching AR/VR headsets based on metaverse technology as soon as the second half of 2022 or in 2023. But the real question remains whether it will contribute to revenue in the balance sheet in the coming years. The headset will be priced higher than the watch around $1000 and this will significantly reduce its sales in the initial years. It is expected to have minimal contribution in revenue at least till 2026. Also between watches and AirPods, headsets will struggle to find a place.
- Bad Local and Global Cues- Apple Inc is a great company with strong financials. But lately due to inflation fears in the US economy, investors have been harsh on growth stocks. With the Federal Reserve beginning to reduce the size of its balance sheet, many are forecasting a recession which in turn may reduce demand for Apple devices.
Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast 2023: Conclusion
In conclusion, Apple is a fundamentally very strong stock. In all this discussion, an investor should not forget about the company’s share repurchase program. It bought $90 billion worth of its shares in fiscal 2022 and has spent $420 billion in the last six years. Due to share repurchase, the share count has decreased by 40% in the last decade adjusting for share splits.
It is shifting its focus to the service business from the product sector and believes that service revenue will take it to newer heights. The main strength of Apple is its loyal customer base, and hence it is sailing through macroeconomic headwinds without great products in the pipeline.
The only plausible products are AR/VR sets based on Metaverse, which was expected to hit the market in 2022, but still, there is no official confirmation about the release. However, the next big thing is self-driving cars which are expected to hit the market at least by 2025.
If we take 2023 into perspective, easing supply chain pressure and cooling off inflation are the first hopes for Apple Inc so that their service business can clock double-digit growth. But growth in the hardware segment is likely to remain muted and hence the target for 2023 cannot go beyond $180. The same is suggested by the technical chart also.
Note: Crowdwisdom360 collates Predictions and data from all over the net and has no in-house view on the likely trends in the Stocks or Crypto Coins. Please consult a registered investment advisor to guide you on your financial decisions.