LUCID Stock Forecast 2023: LCID Is In A Free Fall, Time to Buy the Dip?

Lucid Stock Forecast 2023: Lucid Misses its Revenue target as Earning Per Share also fall. Lucid is technically bearish.

For the next 12 months, the Lucid Price Target is $14.1. Aggregated forecasts predict a price of $18 this year.

Will Lucid Recover? LCID stock price is likely to rise on the next trading day.

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Latest Lucid Stock Price

LCID Stock Forecast 2023: Performance Analysis

• Last 1 Month: +20.0%
• Last 6 Months: -39.5%
• Last 1 Y: -61.2%

Lucid Stock Forecast for next 12 months: Analysts

Average Lucid Target for next 12 months	$14.2
Morgan Stanley	$10
Bank of America	$21
Evercore ISI Group	$12
Morgan Stanley	$10
Cantor Fitzgerald	$18

Lucid Stock Price Prediction for the next 5 years (Aggregated)

LUCID Stock Forecast: Quarterly Result

Lucid recently reported fourth-quarter revenue that fell short of expectations. Here is a brief summary of Lucid’s Q4 performance:

• Lucid reported Q4 revenue of over $257M and annual revenue of over $608M. The estimated revenue was $314.9M.
• Lucid reported a loss of 28 cents per share in Q4 of 2022.
• The company ended the year with about $4.4 billion in cash and roughly $500 million available via lines of credit
• 3,493 vehicles were produced in Q4, up 53 percent sequentially.
• In Q4 Lucid delivered 1932 cars while the estimated was 2831.
• Lucid built just 7,000 of its Air luxury sedans last year.

Lucid expects to make between 10,000 and 14,000 vehicles in 2023. Earlier Lucid made an announcement that it will be delivering 49,000 cars in 2023.

Lucid Stock Forecast: Technical Analysis

Initially Lucid stock was up 90% but with the latest retreat, the gains this year for Lucid have been reduced to around 60%. The first month of 2023 was a fruitful one. Lucid in January 2023 gain around 90%. However, in February, Lucid is already trading around 17% lower.

• January 2023: +89.47%
• February 2023: -16.42%

Overall: +60.45%

Performance on the Last Trading Day

• Close Price: $9.98
• Open Price: $8.79
• Gain/Loss: -11.92%
• Market Cap: $14.77 B

Lucid has been one of the best-performing EV stocks this year as of now. LCID is up nearly 61% since January 2023. In the same period last year, LCID was down nearly 35% but the stock price was close to $30.

The result for the last quarter of 2022 did not go well with Lucid. The stock has crashed massively and Lucid is on the verge of losing all the gains it had made his year.

The Lucid stock has been in a free fall since the EV company announced its Q4 result. Lucid not just fell short of its revenue but missed its EPS target and the deliveries were very low than expected. Added to it, LUCID has even cut its delivery expectation for Q1 of 2023.

The investors did not take this on a good note and the stock crashed nearly 12% on the last trading day. The net Lucid stock price is below the 50-day and 200-day Moving averages.

Lucid is technically bearish. For the next trading day, the price level at $7.99 is the immediate support for Lucid. Failing to hold on to this will likely lead to the Lucid stock price falling below $7.

The resistance at $11 is a critical one for Lucid stock. The stock price has been below $11 and has failed to rise above it. Long-term traders will have to look for a level just below or just above the first resistance level to enter the market.

On the RSI chart, the RSI is forming lower lows, which means the sellers are continuously outnumbering the buyers. The RSI indicates the sellers taking control. On the next trading day, the RSI for LUCID is likely to fall within the 30% zone.

The Stochastic RSI is once again within the oversold territory. The Stoch RSI after testing the 14-day MA fell below it. Considering the current momentum, the Stoch RSI is likely to fall further.

On the MACD chart, the MACD series proper line (blue) has fallen below the 9-day EMA. It is moving lower throwing a Sell signal. The trading volume has crashed for LCID.

Indicators:

• RSI: Bearish
• Stochastic RSI: Bearish
• Moving Average: Bearish
• MACD: Sell

Overall: Sell

Lucid Stock Price Prediction 2023: Buy or Sell (Next 6 Hours)

LUCID News

Saudi Investment Firm To Buy Stake In Lucid?

There are rumors that Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) may buy the remaining stake in the Lucid. PIF already owns 65% of Lucid. The acquisition could lead to greater investments in fixing some of the production issues that have bedeviled Lucid. The stock soared also due to investors covering short positions.

Many electric vehicle companies have joined the EV party and ride the wave in the last few years. There is no doubt that there will be a massive and long transition from combustion engines to electrified vehicles, but there is no guarantee that many companies claiming to be the next “Tesla killer” will survive.

Some EV companies barely have a product, but Lucid Group Inc is different and has a very viable product. “The Air” luxury EV sedan by Lucid Group has received accolades across the US for its design but its share performance speaks differently. After being down by 81% in 2022, it is natural to ask whether LCID stock will recover in 2023, and if yes, to what level?

Lucid Stock Forecast 2023: Bear Case

• Guidance for the full year 2022 was slashed twice –It has been a rough year for Lucid like any other EV maker. But there are many reasons for the more than 80% fall in the last 12 months. Firstly, Lucid started the year with a shock when it slashed the full-year production outlook from 20,000 to only 12,000-14,000 Lucid Air cars due to supply chain issues. By this time, the company had received 25,000 bookings. Another major jolt to the investors was felt in August when management said it will only be able to produce 6,000 to 7,000 units in the 2022 full year, but in contrast, Lucid had received 37,000 bookings by end of the second quarter.

The low production meant longer waiting times for customers to get deliveries. The Q3 results confirmed investors’ worst fears as customers resorted to cancellation of orders due to long waiting times. By November 7, 2022, Lucid had only 34,000 bookings, down by about 10% in a quarter.

• Bad quarter results and stock sale- With production numbers falling, coupled with production costs rising, Q3 2022 losses from operation rose 40% YoY to $687.5 million compared to $497 million in the same quarter the previous year. Also, it ended Q3 2022 with cash and cash equivalent of around $1.3 billion, down more than 70% from Q3 2021.

Along with Q3 results, management also announced the sale of common stock worth $1.5 billion meant for operational and capital expenditures. Management also said that raising capital through stock dilution can continue in 2023. Stock dilution is not considered positive by market participants and some analysts slashed their target price for the EV stock.

• Impact of Macroeconomic headwinds- LCID shares lost 29% in November and another 33% in December 2022. Although a part of it was due to the cancellation of orders, a major part is also due to the macroeconomic headwinds that hurt high-growth stocks like LCID and TSLA. Fed is continuously increasing the interest rates and as a result, there are high chances of a recession in the US in 2023. While the economy appears to be getting better, there are no guarantees at the moment given the uncertainties on commodity prices, Russia, and how China’s recovery will play out on inflation.

Also, LCID share price performance is linked to the EV sector as a whole and Tesla Inc’s performance in particular. For example, in December 2022, there was a news report that Tesla was cutting production in China, EV sector shares sold off and LCID was no exception. In 2023, there are expectations of flagging demand in the EV sector. Additionally, Tesla stock is looking weak due to its issues and this will impact negatively stocks like LCID in 2023.

Lucid Stock Forecast 2023: Bull Case

Cheaper Models in Pipeline – One of the arguments against Lucid is its expensive cars, which may not be attractive for 2023. But Lucid is coming up with lower-priced models like Air Grand Touring, Air Touring, and Air Pure. While the first model of Air Touring was delivered in November 2022. It also expects to deliver Air Pure soon. Lucid Group recently launched a high-end super sports electric sedan named Sapphire and expects to start production of it in 2023. Additionally, Lucid is set to open bookings for its luxury SUV, Gravity in January 2023.

A company’s R&D strength is visible with the products in the pipeline, and Lucid seems to be firing all cylinders in developing a robust pipeline to stay in the EV competition for decades to come. The company can generate additional revenue in 2023 from Gravity and other models.

A turnaround is expected in 2023 – True that Lucid cut its production guidance twice in 2022 to 6,500, but the good news is that it is hoping to produce 34,000 units in 2023. It said in November that it is on track to increase its total annual installed capacity to 90,000 units in 2023. It already has a capacity of 34,000 EVs per year.

There is another reason why Lucid may have hit rock bottom in 2022 in terms of production. On January 12, 2023, the company reported the total production figure for the fourth quarter. Lucid produced almost 3,500 cars in the fourth quarter to reach a total of 7,180 for the full year. So, the company produced almost half of its full-year production figure in the fourth quarter. It indicates that the company has taken important steps towards production and its positive results could be seen in 2023.

LCID Stock Forecast: Q3 2022 Earnings

• Revenues of $195 M vs $97.3 M
• For every share of its $195.5 million in revenue, Lucid lost 40 cents

According to FactSet’s survey of analysts for their take on Lucid’s Q3 earnings, Lucid had to reduce its net loss per share in the third quarter from 43 cents to 31 cents. From $232,000 a year ago and $97.3 million in Q2, revenue was anticipated to reach $209.4 million. But in reality, in Q3 for every share of its $195.5 million in revenue, Lucid lost 40 cents. Due to increased production, the company’s capital expenditures in the third quarter increased by more than three times, to $290 million. Cash and cash equivalents decreased from $4.6 billion at the end of Q2 to $3.85 billion at the end of the quarter. In Q3, Lucid produced 2,282 EVs, more than tripling its output from Q2. 1,398 EVs were supplied to customers, more than double the amount from Q2.

Unfortunately, sales and income figures also fell short of Wall Street’s projections. Particularly, the company’s revenue for the third quarter of 2022 was $195 million.

The common shares of Lucid Group will be offered at the market price of up to $600 million, the company announced on Tuesday. Ayar Third Investment, a subsidiary of Public Investment Fund, which holds a majority stake in the company, agreed to buy up to $915 million worth of Lucid common shares through one or more private placements through at least March 31, 2023, according to a separate agreement the company said it reached with Ayar.

Lucid Stock Forecast 2023: Conclusion

Lucid must be seen as an EV start-up and to be considered if it revises production guidance. What is more important is that it should have the cash to stay afloat for at least a couple of years. Lucid had $3.85 billion of cash equivalents and investments by September 30, 2022. It also raised $1.5 billion through stock dilution. Also, Lucid has the backing of Saudi Arabia since an affiliate of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a major stakeholder in Lucid. In 2022, the government of Saudi Arabia also signed an agreement with Lucid to purchase 100,000 EVs over the next ten years.

For 2023, Lucid must stick to its production target and must ensure that there are no more reservation cancellations.

Read: Tesla Stock Prediction: TSLA 

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Author: Vineet Agarwal

Note: Crowdwisdom360 collates Predictions and data from all over the net and has no in-house view on the likely trends in the Stocks or Crypto Coins. Please consult a registered investment advisor to guide you on your financial decisions.