Rivian (RIVN) Stock Forecast 2023

Rivian (RIVN) Stock Forecast 2023: RIVN is technically Bearish. The average 12-month RIVN Price Prediction is $30.2.

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Latest Rivian Stock Price

Last 12 Months Performance

• Last 5 Days: -8.3%
• Last 1 Month: -31.8%
• 1 Year: -63.1%

Rivian Stock Forecast for the next 12 months

Overall Average	$30.2
Morgan Stanley	$26
Cantor Fitzgerald	$27
Mizuho	$35
Baird	$35
RBC	$28

Rivian Stock Quarterly Earnings

Quarterly Result Summary

(USD)	Dec 2022	Sep 2022	Jun 2022	Mar 2022
Revenue	663M	536M	364M	95M
Net income	-1.72B	-1.72B	-1.71B	-1.59B
Diluted EPS	-1.87	-1.88	-1.89	-1.77
Net profit margin	-259.88%	-321.64%	-470.33%	-1676.84%
Operating income	-1.8B	-1.77B	-1.71B	-1.58B
Net change in cash	-1.7B	-1.66B	-1.51B	-1.45B

The revenue of Rivian Automotive has been increasing. In all 4 quarters for 2022, Rivian registered an increase in revenue on the YoY basis. However, the stocks of Rivian have failed to beat its earnings. Of the 4 quarters of 2022, RIVN registered positive Earnings only in the 2nd quarter, In the rest of the 3 quarters Rivina missed its earnings target. The worst performance by the Rivian stock was in the first quarter followed by the 4th quarter of 2022.

RIVN Stock Revenue and EPS summary

	EPS	Revenue
Dec 2022	Beat 11.40%	Miss -9.11%
Sep 2022	Beat 14.18%	Miss -3.26%
Jun 2022	Beat 0.87%	Beat 7.70%
Mar 2022	Beat 14.54%	Miss -26.19%

Rivian Stock Price Prediction for the next 5 Years

Rivian (RIVN) Stock Forecast 2023: Technical Analysis

RIVN stock price has been falling after Rivian missed its production target. RIVN stock started the year on a positive note and was the best-performing EV stock in 2023 followed by Tesla. However, has already lost almost all the gains that it has made this year. The overall market cap of Rivina was over $20 B a few weeks ago but now the market cap of Rivian stock is below $15 B.

From being one of the best-performing EV stocks this year, RIVN is the worst-performing EV stock among TSLA, NIO, and XPENG. (As of March 20th)

Performance of RIVN on the Last Trading Day

• Close Price: $13.01
• Open Price: $13.46
• Gain/Loss: -3.34%
• Market Cap: $11.98B

On Friday, the overall market cap of Rivian fell below $12B. The stock closed around 3.5% lower. The Rivian stock price has been retreating massively and now the now is in search of stable support. The stock price has fallen below both the 50-day and the 200-day Moving averages.

Rivian stock is now at its lowest level in the last 1 year. The price of $13 is the psychological support for RIVN and the buyers will be looking forward to keeping the RIVN stock price above this level. However, the bears will try to drag the stock price below $12 and the RIVN falling below $12 will give an opportunity to the sellers to pull the price below $10.

The first level of resistance for Rivian is the 50-day MA which is around $17. RIVN stock has been rejected below this level and the stock price has been on a free fall since then.

Technically RIVN is oversold and the RSI for Rivian is at 31.44. With selling pressure increasing, the RSI will likely fall below the 30% zone on the next trading day.

The Stochastic RSI after rising has once again reversed and it is retesting the 14-day SMA. The Stoch RSI will likely fall below the SMA line. It is a sell signal.

On the MACD chart, the MACD line and the signal line are on a downtrend. The MACD line is now above the signal line. The volume histograms are increasing on the bullish axis. It is a buy signal.

Indicators:

• Moving Average: Bearish
• RSI: Bearish
• Stoch RSI: Bearish
• MACD: Buy

Overall: Sell

Also Read:

• NIO Stock Forecast 2023
• Amazon Stock Forecast 2023
• AVCT Stock Forecast 2023
• MULN Stock Forecast
• Microsoft Stock Forecast 2023

Rivian Stock Forecast: Factors that Could Help RIVN Rise in the Future

Rivian Amazon Relationship: Rivian despite having a smaller market share has found a reliable partner in the US market. The Rivian’s relationship with Amazon has given RIVIAN an upstart with capital. Amazon invested $700 million in RIVN in 2019. Additionally, Amazon plans to purchase 100,000 custom-built electric delivery vans from the company, as part of its move to electrify its last-mile fleet by 2040. This has helped Rivian scale up its EV market in the US and in times to come this factor will help RIVIAN grow in the United States.

Growing US EV Market: The US EV Market is growing. In 2022, over 800,000 EVs were sold in the States and it is projected that the market will increase up to 1 million in 2023. Rivian delivered 20,332 vehicles while producing 24,337. Their market share might be small (2.6%) but for a new automaker building its first-ever vehicles, it is a huge achievement. With US EV market growing, RIVN is bound to grow.

Rivian’s charging network: The US EV owners are well aware of Tesla’s charging network but RIVN is putting in all effort to develop its own charging modern. By end of 2023, Rivian intends to install more than 3500 fast chargers and 10,000 level 2 chargers. It will help boost confidence among users about Rivian and also shows the intentions of management that they intend to be in this space for the long haul.

No Dealer Model for Rivian: Rivian has adopted the policy of direct sales model and no dealer model. Rivian wants to be responsible for everything for its products – from sales to charging to services. This model is expected to provide a differentiated experience to customers and create a long-term positive effect. Also, it will allow Rivian to offer membership and software services, finance, and insurance and create a recurring revenue apart from sales.

Rivian Stock Forecast 2023: Factors that Could Lead to RIVN Crash

No Clear Path of Profitability: In the last quarter, RIVIAN missed the revenue target by 3.26%. The expected revenue target was $554M while the revenue for Rivian was $536M. Additionally, Rivian’s profitability fell 39.8% which is $1.72 B. On the other hand, the cost of revenue for Rivian was up 1640%.

The management has failed to provide a clear path to profitability.

Strong Competition – Primary product of Rivian is an electric truck and although it is very strong, other players are too offering electric trucks that cannot be ignored. For example, Tesla’s Cybertruck and Ford F-150, both have received promising reviews from users. Also, Tesla and Ford are much ahead in the number of pre-bookings.  While Ford has 200,000 non-binding reservations for the F-150 truck and Tesla has more than 1.25 million pre-orders for Cybertruck, Rivian has only 71,000 orders. The competition is going to be intensified in the future.

The breakup of the partnership with Ford – A large part of the IPO success of Rivian belonged to the partnership with Ford which had invested $500 million in the automaker. Prior to the IPO, Ford announced plans to develop the electric vehicle in collaboration with Rivian on its platform. But soon after the IPO, Rivian acknowledged that there are no such plans as of now and both companies are focusing on their individual plans to excel in the EV field. This will impact the Rivian stock forecast for 2022.

Missing Production Target: Rivian had set up a target of 25,000 EVs for 2022. However, the EV startup produced 24,337 vehicles in 2022, including 10,020 in the fourth quarter. Of those, 20,332 vehicles were delivered to customers during the year, including more than 8,000 from October through December. After missing the target the Rivian stock crashed.

Rivian Stock Forecast Today

Final Conclusion: Is Rivian a Good Buy?

Rivian with its newly launched IPO was one of the most attractive EV stocks in 2022 initially. The backing of Amazon and the partnership with Ford was something that would bring a great advantage to a newly launched EV startup.

However, soon after the launch of the IPO Rivian announced that there were no plans of collaborating with Ford to build the EVs as both companies were working on their individual products.

Additionally, Amazon announced that it is working with Fiat Chrysler parent Stellantis to buy the same electric commercial vehicles. It is taken as a setback for Rivian and seen through the lens of mistrust of Rivian to deliver on its promises.

With the US EV market growing Rivian is a buy for the long term but for the short-term RIVN is a risky stock. The above-mentioned bull and the bear cases could give an investor a proper idea about their investment in RIVN.

Note: Crowdwisdom360 collates Predictions and data from all over the net and has no in-house view on the likely trends in the Stocks or Crypto Coins. Please consult a registered investment advisor to guide you on your financial decisions.