Rivian Stock Forecast 2023: Is Rivian a Good Buy?

Rivian Stock Forecast 2023: Is Rivian a Good Buy?

Rivian Stock Forecast 2023: RIVN is technically bearish. Read on to know whether RIVN is a Good Buy or Not.


Latest Rivian Stock Price

Last 12 Months Performance

  • Last 5 Days: +14.6%
  • Last 1 Month: -1.8%
  • 1 Year: -70.6%

Rivian Stock Forecast for the next 12 months

Overall Average$44
Truist$50
Mizuho$50
Cantor Fitzgerald$22
Robert W Baird$44
Morgan Stanley$55

Rivian Stock Price Prediction for the next 5 Years

RIVN Rivian Stock Price Prediction 2023 is $35.5

RIVN Rivian Stock Price Prediction 2024 is $39.0

RIVN Rivian Stock Price Prediction 2025 is $44.2

RIVN Rivian Stock Price Prediction 2026 is $58.6

RIVN Rivian Stock Price Prediction 2027 is $71.0

Rivian Stock Forecast 2023: Technical Analysis

RIVN stock price has been falling after Rivian missed its production target. However, the gap was not very big the market responded to it brutally.

RIVN is currently around 80% below its 52-week high which was $72.09 while the 52-week low price of RIVN is $15.28.

Performance of RIVN on the Last Trading Day

  • Close Price: $18.31
  • Open Price: $17.93
  • Gain/Loss: -2.03%
  • Market Cap: $16.86 B

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RIVN is currently testing the 50-day MA. The above chart indicates, RIVN may see a downtrend on the next trading day. RIVN after testing the support at $16.04 formed two bottom tops and the surge happened. However, with more sellers entering the market, RIVN is unlikely to break above the 50-day MA.

RIVN stock net price is below the 50-day as well as 200-day MA. The first level of support for RIVN is $16.04 while the first level of resistance for RIVN is $20.

The RSI is 56.48. The RSI indicates that RIVN is currently in no trading zone. With sellers entering, the RSI is expected to fall which may lead to the RIVN price fall.

image 553

The Stochastic RSI is on a downtrend from the over brought territory. It has fallen marginally and the bears are in control.

The MACD indicator which indicates whether the asset is a buy or a sell is marginally favorable. The MACD series proper (blue line) is now in the bullish zone and has crossed the 9-day EMA from below. The signal is a Buy. The trading volume for TSLA has risen in the last few days.

Overall the momentum is bearish.

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Rivian Stock Forecast: Factors that Could Help RIVN Rise in the Future

Rivian Amazon Relationship: Rivian despite having a smaller market share has found a reliable partner in the US market. The Rivian’s relationship with Amazon has given RIVIAN an upstart with capital. Amazon invested $700 million in RIVN in 2019. Additionally, Amazon plans to purchase 100,000 custom-built electric delivery vans from the company, as part of its move to electrify its last-mile fleet by 2040. This has helped Rivian scale up its EV market in the US and in times to come this factor will help RIVIAN grow in the United States.

Growing US EV Market: The US EV Market is growing. In 2022, over 800,000 EVs were sold in the States and it is projected that the market will increase up to 1 million in 2023. Rivian delivered 20,332 vehicles while producing 24,337. Their market share might be small (2.6%) but for a new automaker building its first-ever vehicles, it is a huge achievement. With US EV market growing, RIVN is bound to grow.

Rivian’s charging network: The US EV owners are well aware of Tesla’s charging network but RIVN is putting in all effort to develop its own charging modern. By end of 2023, Rivian intends to install more than 3500 fast chargers and 10,000 level 2 chargers. It will help boost confidence among users about Rivian and also shows the intentions of management that they intend to be in this space for the long haul.

No Dealer Model for Rivian: Rivian has adopted the policy of direct sales model and no dealer model. Rivian wants to be responsible for everything for its products – from sales to charging to services. This model is expected to provide a differentiated experience to customers and create a long-term positive effect. Also, it will allow Rivian to offer membership and software services, finance, and insurance and create a recurring revenue apart from sales.

Rivian Stock Forecast 2023: Factors that Could Lead to RIVN Crash

No Clear Path of Profitability: In the last quarter, RIVIAN missed the revenue target by 3.26%. The expected revenue target was $554M while the revenue for Rivian was $536M. Additionally, Rivian’s profitability fell 39.8% which is $1.72 B. On the other hand, the cost of revenue for Rivian was up 1640%.

The management has failed to provide a clear path to profitability.

Strong Competition – Primary product of Rivian is an electric truck and although it is very strong, other players are too offering electric trucks that cannot be ignored. For example, Tesla’s Cybertruck and Ford F-150, both have received promising reviews from users. Also, Tesla and Ford are much ahead in the number of pre-bookings.  While Ford has 200,000 non-binding reservations for the F-150 truck and Tesla has more than 1.25 million pre-orders for Cybertruck, Rivian has only 71,000 orders. The competition is going to be intensified in the future.

The breakup of the partnership with Ford – A large part of the IPO success of Rivian belonged to the partnership with Ford which had invested $500 million in the automaker. Prior to the IPO, Ford announced plans to develop the electric vehicle in collaboration with Rivian on its platform. But soon after the IPO, Rivian acknowledged that there are no such plans as of now and both companies are focusing on their individual plans to excel in the EV field. This will impact the Rivian stock forecast for 2022.

Missing Production Target: Rivian had set up a target of 25,000 EVs for 2022. However, the EV startup produced 24,337 vehicles in 2022, including 10,020 in the fourth quarter. Of those, 20,332 vehicles were delivered to customers during the year, including more than 8,000 from October through December. After missing the target the Rivian stock crashed.

Rivian Stock Forecast 2023: Q3 Earnings

Rivian released its third-quarter earnings results in the first week of November 2022. The result was not very encouraging as Rivian missed its 3rd quarter revenue expectations.

  • Rivian posted revenue of $536 million in the third quarter of 2022. The estimated revenue was $550 million.
  • Rivian’s profit was once again negative. There was a negative gross profit of -$917 million in the third quarter. Overall, Rivian posted a net loss of over $1.7 billion compared to a loss of $776 million a year ago.
  • Rivian’s operating costs in Q3 2022 grew to $857 million, up from $694 million in the same quarter last year.
  • As of September 30, the company had about $13.8 billion in cash remaining, down from $15.5 billion as of June 30.
  • Earnings per share were down. Adjusted loss per share: $1.57, versus an expected loss of $1.82 per share.

Additionally, Rivian now has over 114,000 preorders for its R1-series trucks and SUVs, up from about 98,000 preorders as of Aug. 11.

Rivian Stock Forecast Today

Overall OutlookNeutral
1. Market's WisdomPositive
1a. Market DataPositive
1b. Technical RecommendationBuy
2. Crowd's WisdomPartially Negative
2a. Social Media BuzzLower
2b. Social Media SentimentLower

Final Conclusion: Is Rivian a Good Buy?

Rivian with its newly launched IPO was one of the most attractive EV stocks in 2022 initially. The backing of Amazon and the partnership with Ford was something that would bring a great advantage to a newly launched EV startup.

However, soon after the launch of the IPO Rivian announced that there were no plans of collaborating with Ford to build the EVs as both companies were working on their individual products.

Additionally, Amazon announced that it is working with Fiat Chrysler parent Stellantis to buy the same electric commercial vehicles. It is taken as a setback for Rivian and seen through the lens of mistrust of Rivian to deliver on its promises.

With the US EV market growing Rivian is a buy for the long term but for the short-term RIVN is a risky stock. The above-mentioned bull and the bear cases could give an investor a proper idea about their investment in RIVN.

Latest Earnings report

  • The company produced a total of 15 k units and delivered 6584 units.
  • Revenue generated from the delivered vehicles was $536 million versus $364 million in Q2.
  • It incurred a net loss of $1724 million and consequently, its EPS is reported at $-1.8.
  • Retained earnings reported a deficit of $11,403 million and its cash and cash equivalents as of September 30th were $13,272 million.

Following the podcast held by the CEO to discuss the strong growth earnings of the company and reaffirm its dedication to fulfilling 25k units of order, the stock price has surged by 9% within 5 days. Also, there were many institutional purchases made out in the meantime. Amazon has the highest stake in the stock’s ownership. Even the California state government’s Pension fund California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) purchased nearly $300 billion worth of shares. As soon as the news came out, it may have triggered a herding effect on the public investors and compelled more buying of the stock. Due to this the stock price managed to appreciate by 11% in a single day.

Note: Crowdwisdom360 collates Predictions and data from all over the net and has no in-house view on the likely trends in the Stocks or Crypto Coins. Please consult a registered investment advisor to guide you on your financial decisions.

Rivian Stock Forecast 2023
Subhash

Subhash

Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.

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