VLDR Stock Forecast: How long will the road to price recovery last?

VLDR Stock Forecast: How long will the road to price recovery last?
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VLDR Stock Forecast: Highlights
VLDR Stock Forecast 2022: Shares of VLDR are expected to trade between $2.24 and $2.74. The overall recommendation is Sell.
-The average 12-month target for VLDR is $4.98.
-Positives: Amazon warrant to purchase 40 million shares,  U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration permission to build fully autonomous vehicles
Negatives: The full-year performance of the stock was -79.17%.
Zacks investment analysts rated this stock as a sell.

VLDR Stock Forecast: Latest Price and Past Performance

VLDR Stock Forecast: Support and Resistance

Source
Support
Resistance
Recommendation
$3.41(S3)
$4.64 (R1)
Neutral
$3.66(S3)
$4.21(R1)
Sell

VLDR Stock Forecast: CrowWisdom360 – Insights

  • In 2021, shipments of VLDR sensors jumped 15% to 15,000. Although due to
  • Amazon announced last month that it has purchased a warrant from the stock which will enable Amazon to purchase 40 million shares of the stock.
  • When it comes to market performance, VLDR has had a rather shaky run. The one-year high price for the stock was $4.99 on 01/03/22, and the one-year low price was $1.96 on 03/14/22.
  • Yet, The year-to-date stock performance seems to be positive. Given the metric’s showing of -48%, Furthermore, the stock has declined by -63.58% in the last six months, with a drop of -79% in the last year.
  • VLDR Stock had a short-term slump of entering oversold or overbought zones. However, which has been recovered now.
  • While there are some positive news, it does not reflect on the recovery of stock yet. Hence short-term recommendation is to sell the stock .

VLDR Stock Forecast: Latest Videos

Autonomous driving vehicles are the talk of the town for past couple of years and same is visible by electric vehicle companies like Tesla trying their hands on developing more sophisticated autonomous driving models every passing year. Sectors associated with this like sensor industry has got a big boost in these years.

Velodyne Lidar Inc is right on money as it delivers sensors to auto industry players, helping them in success of auto driving vehicles. The sensors are also put to commercial use in robotics and smart city applications. But the stock performance does not reflect the enthusiasm for the sector. It has fallen more than 80% in last one year as a result of governance issues and bad quarter results. Let’s dissect the factors can that affect stock performance in 2022 and in long term like by 2025 and conclude whether it is a buy or sell indication for Velodyne Lidar Inc (Nasdaq: VLDR)

VLDR Stock Forecast: VLDR Stock Forecast 2022

  • Forgettable performance in 2021- The stock had a forgettable last year. It was trading around $23 and since 12th February 2021, it is one directional fall since then leading up to 82.49% fall in last one year. It is coupled by a number of issues discussed below, but stock has lost investors’ confidence and it will not be surprise if 2022 turns out to be a replica of 2021.
  • Ouster of Founder – On 22nd February 2021, David Hall, founder and chairman of board of directors and marketing chief Marta Thoma Hall- who is married to David Hall have been removed from their respective roles on immediate basis. The announcement followed an internal audit which found that Halls behaved inappropriately with directors and officers. The stock crashed soon after announcement and it has not recovered since then a bit even. Apart from stock performance, these announcements do tarnish company’s image permanently which is hard to restore back.
  • Bad financial results since 2017- Velodyne had a dismal performance in each quarter since last two years, particularly 2021. The company has not reported net positive income since 2017.  Since 2018, revenue is decreasing every year from $143 million in 2018 to $95.36 million in 2020. Net income is also negative every year starting from 2018. Velodyne reported $-62.30 million in 2018 as net income and the loss increased 2.5 times to $-150 million in 2020. Results from 2021 is also expected on same lines as first three quarters have been worse for company compared to previous years. Q4 results are due on 28th February and it may lead to another big fall in stock.
  • Amazon deal with Velodyne to purchase 39.6 million shares- Lately, Amazon has shown interest in autonomous vehicles to reduce its logistics costs. Velodyne Lidar on Monday jumped 60% after trading hours as a regulatory filing showed that a fully owned subsidiary of Amazon has received warrants to purchase 39.6 million company shares. The warrants will be exercised based on commercial activity between two companies and are valid till 2030. Amazon is bound to pay $4.18 upon exercise of each warrant they have vested. The agreement also states that Amazon can name a member on board of directors of Velodyne if it eventually owns 12.3 million shares. 

Also Read: Pton stock forecast

VLDR Stock Forecast: Is VLDR a good Stock to Buy?     

Velodyne Lidar Inc.’s stock price fell -3.34 percent from its previous day’s finish on Wednesday, March 02, The market capitalization of VLDR is now around $676.27 million, with investors anticipating profits this quarter. Analysts predict that EPS will be $-0.17 in 2022, with a -56.80% Y-o-Y and anticipated 13% Y-o-Y increase for the next year. VLDR is now trading around -11.36 percent and -16.98 percent below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages. VLDR is currently valued at $25.00 per share by the most bullish analyst, while it is valued at $3.50 by the most bearish. 

The stock is rated as a sell-by both mid-term and long-term indicators. There has been no upward or downward review in the last seven days for this company. VLDR’s revenue is predicted to rise at a slower rate than the market as a whole. Analysts have also cut the revenue estimates, predicting a weaker outlook.

VLDR is definitely not a buy for 2022, but if someone owns the stock this may be the best time to sell.

VLDR Stock Forecast: Technical Analysis

Stock touched $30.79 on 12th December 2020, it tried to stabilize till fag end of February 2021, until 22nd February when Velodyne made a shocking revelation of ouster of founder as discussed above. It is seen in the past that bad governance has led to entire capital been wiped out for a company. Velodyne Lidar Inc chart of last one year is on similar track and downfall is a result of double whammy in the form of governance issues and bad quarter results.

Technically stock is trying to stabilize and a pleasant surprise is that it is trading above short term moving averages like 10 days and 20 days (both simple and exponential). It signals towards short term positive momentum which can restrict downfall going forward. But it is still below long term moving averages like 50 days, 100 days and 200 days and it can take a while to reclaim 200 days exponential moving average ($7.49). Other oscillator indicators are mixed, for example RSI (14) and stochastic %k (14,3,3) are neutral towards the stock while MACD level (12,26) is signaling buy for VLDR. Important technical indicators for stock is tabulated below.

Stock Name
Velodyne Lidar Inc
Pivot Points
4.01
Support
2.15(S3)
Resistance
4.72(R1)
Moving Average (50 days EMA)
$4.50
Moving Average (200 days EMA)
$7.49
RSI(14)
50.73
MACD(12,26)
-0.18
ADX(14)
27.58

Good thing for stock is that it is trading above daily pivot point (4.01) as of 9.02.2022 and signifies that stock will either stabilize or move upwards until it trades above pivot point. Also, going forward $4.01 will act as strong support and if it breaks that then subsequent supports will be at $3.30, $2.86 and $2.15. Resistances are lined up if the stock moves upward. First resistance will be at $4.72 and if it surpasses it with strong green candle, $5.16 and $5.88 will be next resistance levels. $7.82 and $12.70 are still distant dream for the stock and if everything clicks, then it can move towards these levels.

VLDR Stock Forecast: VLDR Stock Forecast 2025

  • Cornerstone of self-driving vehicles- The company may perform good or bad depending on the circumstances, but one thing to be agreed upon is that Velodyne Lidar is the company for the future. As more and more automotive companies are opting for making self-driving vehicles and Velodyne happens to be biggest and oldest player in this nascent market for the sensors which are imperative for the self-driving vehicles.    
  • Less Competition – The only visible competition to Velodyne Lidar Inc is Luminar Technologies and in terms of revenue and sales, Luminar is way behind Velodyne Lidar Inc. While the annual revenue of Luminar is around $13 million, Velodyne reports quarter revenue more than this figure. This scarcity of competition may work in favor of Velodyne going forward. It may lead to imbalance in demand and supply chain leading to increase in profitability of Velodyne Lidar Inc.
  • Multiyear agreements – The company has total 35 multiyear agreements as of early November 2021 as compared to 26 agreements as of 2020. Also, the volume of delivery is increasing in recent quarters, for example the company shipped a total of 4400 sensor units during Q3 2021, up from 2600 in Q1 2021. Going forward, the performance of stock in couple of years from now will depend on how these agreements will pan out and they are most likely to give a positive boost to company and in turn to stock.

VLDR Stock Forecast: Buy or Sell in 2025

There is no doubt that auto driving vehicles have a bright future ahead. A decade from now, self-driving vehicles will give tough competition to traditional ones and industry is expected to boom just like electric vehicle industry journey in last couple of years. Sensors will have huge demand, not just in automotive industry, but in other industries like Robotics, Artificial Intelligence.

Velodyne Lidar as a company has faced hurdles in the past and they are expected to continue in the future, but it needs right governance and strong management at its heart to start with. If the company get these issues right and reports good quarter results, then it has bright future ahead.    

If an investor believes in the self-driving auto industry, he can buy Velodyne Lidar Inc post for long term like 2025, but after watching couple of quarter results in 2022.      

VLDR stock Forecast

-Vineet Agarwal

Note: Crowdwisdom360 collates Predictions and data from all over the net and has no in-house view on the likely trends in the Stocks or Crypto Coins. Please consult a registered investment advisor to guide you on your financial decisions.

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